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The Nebraska Cornhuskers take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on BTN.
Nebraska is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Nebraska vs. Michigan State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Nebraska vs Michigan State Prediction
- Nebraska vs. Michigan State Pick: Nebraska -5.5
My Michigan State vs. Nebraska best bet is on the Cornhuskers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Nebraska vs Michigan State Odds
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -220 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +180 |
- Nebraska vs Michigan State point spread: Nebraska -5.5 (-110), Michigan State +5.5 (-110)
- Nebraska vs Michigan State over/under: 48.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Nebraska vs Michigan State moneyline: Nebraska -220, Michigan State +180
Nebraska vs Michigan State College Football Preview
Nebraska Cornhuskers Betting Preview
In his first stint with Nebraska, Anthony Colandrea has been able to thrive, throwing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while completing 68.8% of his passes. The Cornhuskers QB has also been effective on the ground, averaging over four yards per carry while punching in another two scores with his legs.
Colandrea’s success through the air has also helped create more space in the middle for Jamal Rule to exploit. In three games, Rule has been able to consistently create explosive plays, averaging over 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns per game.
While Colandrea’s hot start can be attributed to the Cornhuskers' favorable schedule, it still has been impressive to see how efficient the offense has been with a new face under center. The unit ranks in the top 25 in success rate, explosiveness, havoc allowed and finishing drives.
Nebraska’s continuity on defense has also helped complement the offense, fielding a group that ranks above league average in defensive success rate, EPA per play, points per opportunity and havoc.
With both sides of the ball firing on all cylinders, the Cornhuskers are able to avoid playing in highly volatile contests, improving the probability of winning.
It's worth noting that Nebraska has been vulnerable to giving up explosive plays at an alarming rate, flipping the field position in favor of its opponents in a blink of an eye.
Luckily for the Cornhuskers, Michigan State’s offense lacks the explosiveness that's needed to beat them on the ground, making it easier for the Cornhuskers to mask a glaring weakness.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
Even though Michigan State managed to cover the spread against Notre Dame, red flags are looming all over the offense. Alessio Milivojevic is struggling to connect with his wideouts, completing just 52.9% of his passes while throwing two back-breaking interceptions.
With Milivojevic under center, Michigan State has severely underwhelmed on offense, residing in the bottom half of the board in pass success rate, PPA, and explosiveness.
With no fear of getting burned through the air, opposing defenses can stack the box at a high rate, making it easier to stuff the Spartans' ground game.
When both facets of the offense are struggling to get into a groove, the Spartans are incapable of moving the ball down the field, keeping them out of scoring position.
On the other side of the ball, negative regression will continue to loom large over the defense while the quality of opponents ramps up, fielding a group that ranks 90th in defensive success rate.
When forced into a track meet, the Spartans lack the talent that's needed to keep pace.
A conference matchup against Nebraska will do them no favors, as they're hosting an offense that excels at staying ahead of the sticks while dominating the time of possession.
With fewer opportunities to match the Cornhuskers' output, Saturday’s Big Ten tilt may result in a lopsided affair.
Nebraska vs Michigan State Pick, Betting Analysis
Even though Nebraska has had the benefit of drawing three easy opponents to start the year, a favorable matchup against Michigan State will help brush aside regression.
The Spartans lack the explosiveness that's needed to threaten the Cornhuskers' defense, forcing them to rely on conservative throws for minimal success, which will result in a high volume of early outs.
Not only has Milivojevic underwhelmed through the air, but Cam Edwards has also struggled to pull defensive attention to the box, leading a ground game that ranks 100th in rush success rate, 96th in PPA and 80th in explosiveness.
With no threat of getting burned in the middle, the Cornhuskers can send the linebackers to the outside and clog Milivojevic’s passing lanes.
Every stalled-out possession will put Nebraska’s offense in generous field position, improving the Cornhuskers' probability of scoring. Keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a struggle for the Spartans, a group that ranks 70th in finishing drives.
The Spartans' poor grade in finishing drives is even more stunning when factoring in the quality of opponents they've played outside of Notre Dame, a pair of contests that involve Toledo and Eastern Michigan.
While I do recognize this is Nebraska’s toughest opponent by far four weeks into the year, this isn't the spot where negative regression will rear its ugly head.
Bet the Cornhuskers to cover the spread at no higher than the key number of -7 and place a separate wager on them to clear the over of 27.5 on the team total as well.
Pick: Nebraska -5.5
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