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The Kansas State Wildcats take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Saturday, Sept. 26. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Kansas State is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +188 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Kansas State vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26.
Kansas State vs Cincinnati Prediction
- Kansas State vs. Cincinnati Pick: Kansas State Team Total Over 30.5
My Cincinnati vs. Kansas State best bet is on the Wildcats to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.
Kansas State vs Cincinnati Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -106 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -230 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -114 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +188 |
- Kansas State vs Cincinnati point spread: Kansas State -6.5 (-106), Cincinnati +6.5 (-114)
- Kansas State vs Cincinnati over/under: 55.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Kansas State vs Cincinnati moneyline: K State -230, Cincinnati +188
Kansas State vs Cincinnati College Football Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Johnson Leads the Way
Since the start of the regular season, Kansas State has been dominant on offense, entering Week 4 ranked near the top of the board in Success Rate, Explosiveness, Points Per Opportunity and Havoc allowed.
Avery Johnson’s consistency under center has helped turn the Wildcats offense into an efficient unit by completing nearly 70% of his passes in three games.
Johnson has also been effective on the ground, leading the team in rushing while averaging 10.5 yards per carry.
His dual-threat ability applies serious pressure to opposing secondaries, forcing them to either cheat up in coverage to help crash down when he takes off and runs or drop back and risk getting burned by his legs when a running lane presents itself.
Rodney Fields Jr. and Joe Jackson have also been productive on the ground, leading the Wildcats to top-20 marks in Rushing Success Rate and Explosiveness.
The Wildcats' versatility on offense makes it difficult for opponents to keep them in front of the sticks, allowing them to get into scoring position at a high rate.
While the spotlight has been on Johnson and company, Kansas State has quietly been just as efficient on defense, ranking fourth overall in Success Rate allowed.
While the 'Cats struggle to defend against explosive plays, they've masked it by holding opposing offenses to more than half the distance to gain on early downs.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Comeback Kids
After entering the locker room down 28-7 to Miami (OH), Cincinnati mounted a comeback and thwarted the RedHawks, 35-31.
Quarterback JC French IV was impressive in the Bearcats' win, throwing for 309 yards and two touchdowns while completing 72% of his passes.
French also found success on the ground, gashing Miami (OH) for 39 yards while punching in another score with his legs.
With French under center, Cincinnati has played at a high level, fielding an offense ranked 18th in Success Rate, eighth in Finishing Drives and 16th in Havoc allowed.
Even when lacking the explosiveness needed to flip the field position in short order, French's ability to take care of the ball helps the Bearcats methodically move the ball while controlling time of possession.
While the offense has thrived, Cincinnati’s defense has struggled to give the Bearcats the production they need to be a well-rounded unit, stumbling to the bottom half of the board in Success Rate allowed and in EPA Per Play allowed.
Even though the Big 12 is loaded with teams possessing a similar identity, the Bearcats' lack of production on defense holds them back from entering the upper echelon of the conference.
Playing in highly volatile contests on a weekly basis requires the ball to bounce Cincinnati's way at an unsustainable rate, leaving the Bearcats vulnerable to falling behind when the offense falls into a cold stretch of play.
Kansas State vs Cincinnati Pick, Betting Analysis
With Kansas State’s offense firing on all cylinders, it's going to be a long night for Cincinnati’s defense.
Johnson has been just as effective with his legs as his arm, so the Bearcats will need to anchor linebackers across the middle, leaving them exposed on the outside. That increases the Wildcats' chance of generating an explosive play through the air.
Should the Bearcats decide to drop back in coverage, Fields and Jackson’s running lanes at the line of scrimmage will widen, making it easier for the duo to gash the front seven once they escape the trenches.
Stopping the run has already been an issue for Cincinnati, limping into Week 4 ranked outside the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, PPA allowed, and EPA Per Play allowed.
On the other side of the field, negative regression looms large over Cincinnati’s offense, with the Wildcats holding opponents to minimal gains on early downs, forcing the Bearcats to convert from afar. That'll lead to a high volume of early outs.
Each stalled drive feeds into Kansas State’s total number of possessions, leading to an uptick in the Wildcats' total number of scoring opportunities as well.
With the Bearcats expected to stall out at a high rate, bypass the full game total and place a wager on the Wildcats to clear their team total at no higher than 31.
Pick: Kansas State Team Total Over 30.5 (Play to 31)
Kansas State vs Cincinnati Betting Trends
