LSU vs. Alabama Odds & Picks: Will Question Marks Create Variance?

Nov 09, 2019 01:40 PM EST
Credit:

John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Devonta Smith

  • The latest LSU vs. Alabama odds are falling, with the Crimson Tide listed as a 6-point favorite over the Tigers.
  • There's so much uncertainty in this game, with Alabama's quarterback situation in particular, and that could create betting value.
  • See our experts' picks on this game as an Action EDGE member.

LSU vs. Alabama Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Alabama -5.5
  • Over/Under: 63.5
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports

Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


It’s not No. 1 vs. No. 2 with Ohio State holding the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, but Alabama vs. LSU is loaded with intrigue.

The Tide and Tigers always meet on this weekend in November following bye weeks, but given the storylines and magnitude, this could be an all-timer.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa injured his ankle against Tennessee three weeks ago, and while it sounds like he will play, he may not be 100%.

On the other side, LSU’s offense has looked dynamic behind Heisman favorite Joe Burrow. The Tide haven’t seen an LSU offense like this, ever.

Let’s dive into a few different betting angles for this game, with our bets at the bottom.

How LSU-Alabama Odds Shifted

The lines for this game have been fluctuating as the status of Tua Tagovailoa remains uncertain. After opening around Alabama -6, it went through the key touchdown number to -7.5, only to fall back to -5.5 and -6. Of course, there could still be a major change on the way once more is known about Tua.

The total has been on a similar back-and-forth ride, opening around 63, reaching 66 and falling back inside its opening number to 62.5.

As it stands now, the public has been playing LSU (59% of bets) and the under (64%). — Danny Donahue

Market Shifting Daily with Tua News

There are plenty of stories changing the market daily. The health of Tua Tagovailoa has been the top story, as his every step in practice when possible has been on film.

Friday, CBS broadcaster Gary Danielson said Tua is not 100%, saying “He’s okay…I’d be playing if I was him. But he’s not the Tua that started season.”

I have the drop-off between him and Mac Jones at around 6-7 points, so if Tua is hobbled or can’t continue in the game, it’s a pretty material drop. The first drive or two will be very telling, so have some live lines fired up. — Stuckey

Why Has the Total Dropped?

The drop in the total is correlated to a worry of Alabama trying to establish the run and not push Tua to throw downfield too much. While running the ball would take the load off Mac Jones or Tagovailoa, it’s not in either team’s offensive identity.

LSU ranks top 5 in opponent rushing success, and because of that both Tua or Mac Jones will attack the weakest part of each defense, which is the middle. LSU lost defensive end Justin Thomas and linebacker Michael Divinity, weakening a pass defense that is 113th in opponent pass explosiveness. — Collin Wilson

The total in this game opened at 63 and immediately shot up. I knew that there would be some buy back eventually because a few sharp people that I know liked the under.

START MY FREE TRIALCONTINUE IN THE APP
model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
Follow Action Network Staff on Twitter
@ActionNetworkHQ

Top Stories