The Michigan State Spartans take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Minnesota is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. Michigan State, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +145 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. Minnesota prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Michigan State vs Minnesota Prediction
- Michigan State vs. Minnesota Pick: Minnesota -3
My Minnesota vs. Michigan State best bet is on the Golden Gophers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan State vs Minnesota Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Michigan State vs Minnesota Spread: Minnesota -3.5, Michigan State +3.5
- Michigan State vs Minnesota Over/Under: 45.5 Points
- Michigan State vs Minnesota Moneyline: Michigan State +145, Minnesota -170
Michigan State vs Minnesota College Football Betting Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Inconsistency Surrounds Spartans
Michigan State's season, and head coach Jonathan Smith's job, are on the line in Minneapolis on Saturday afternoon.
Following a leisurely 3-0 start to the season, the Spartans have now lost five consecutive games, looking increasingly less feisty with every loss.
If not for a pair of backdoor covers in the final minute of the last two losses to Indiana and Michigan, there would be no signs of life with this team. But both late touchdowns came with the second string on the field, long after the games had been decided.
One thing has been a constant for Michigan State this year: a horrid defensive unit.
Michigan State has allowed 31 points or more in all six games against Power Conference opponents, averaging 38 points allowed against Boston College, USC, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana and Michigan.
Bad offenses have found success against this defense; good offenses have destroyed it.
But we've known the Spartan defense doesn't offer much resistance.
The more concerning development as the season has progressed is the offense's growing ineptitude. After scoring 31 against USC and 27 against Nebraska, the Michigan State offense has averaged just 15 points per game over the last three contests.
The biggest issue has been protection. Banged-up quarterback Aidan Chiles has taken 21 sacks this season and looks uncomfortable on most snaps, evading constant pressure.
There's no safety valve on the ground, as Michigan State averages just 3.6 yards per carry as a team.
As a proposed quarterback change has been floated in recent weeks, Smith hasn't exactly squashed those rumors. It wouldn't be a surprise to see backup Alessio Milivojevic get a longer look in this game, but it would be unlikely to yield better results than Chiles on the road.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview: Gophers Primed to Bounce Back at Home
While vibes are low for Michigan State at the moment, you could say the same about Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are fresh off their worst performance of the season on the road at Iowa last week, losing 41-3 to the Hawkeyes in a miserable showing.
The good news for PJ Fleck's side is that Minnesota has been a totally different team at home than on the road.
In three away games this season, Minnesota has been outscored, 110-20, in three losses. In five home games, Minnesota is 5-0, while holding opposing offenses to 12.8 points per game.
The biggest strength for Minnesota maps well with Michigan State's vulnerability: its pass rush.
The Golden Gophers rank in the top 10 nationally with 25 sacks, the second-best mark in the Big Ten. It would be shocking if Minnesota weren't constantly putting either Michigan State quarterback under immense pressure all game.
On offense, Minnesota has been average at best this season.
Its passing attack, led by redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey, can pick apart bad defenses while running into a wall against quality opponents. The porous Spartan defense should be a breath of fresh air.
One thing of note — star running back Darius Taylor is listed as questionable for this game. Taylor has had a quiet year thus far; despite his 4.4 yards per carry average, he has three games with fewer than carries on the season.
Taylor left last week's loss to Iowa after just one carry, and Fleck hasn't provided an update.
Michigan State vs Minnesota Pick, Betting Analysis
Even if Taylor sits out, Minnesota should be able to control this game through defense and field position.
The Gophers' pass rush has a mismatch against Michigan State's awful offensive line, and with questions at quarterback, that's a death trap.
Minnesota has been stellar at home this season, and this is the ultimate bounce-back spot. It's also an opportunity for Fleck to clinch a bowl game before the schedule heats up. Take Minnesota to pull away.
Pick: Minnesota -3
Michigan State vs Minnesota Betting Trends
