The Michigan State Spartans take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, California, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 11 p.m. ET on FOX.
USC is favored by 18.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. Michigan State, meanwhile, comes in as a +18.5 underdog with the moneyline at +575. The over/under sits at 55 points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. USC prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Michigan State vs USC Prediction
- Michigan State vs. USC Pick: Over 55.5
My USC vs. Michigan State best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan State vs USC Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Michigan State vs USC Spread: USC -18.5, Michigan State +18.5
- Michigan State vs USC Over/Under: 55 Points
- Michigan State vs USC Moneyline: Michigan State +575, USC -800
Michigan State vs USC College Football Betting Preview
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: Figuring Things Out
It's Year 2 for Jonathan Smith in East Lansing, and there's reason for some optimism due to the play of quarterback Aidan Chiles.
The Spartans notched a nonconference home win over Boston College in Week 2 and remain unblemished entering Big Ten play.
Chiles has completed over 71% of his passes and is taking care of the football. He also has the ability to extend plays outside the pocket with his legs.
Going back to his time at Oregon State, Smith has always valued a good balance between the running and passing game, and this year's team is starting to fit that mold. There were just too many new faces a year ago to find much of a consistent rhythm.
This will be the first road test of the season for MSU, so it will be important to get off to a fast start and quiet down the Trojan faithful.
When USC does have the ball, Michigan State's secondary will have its work cut out for it.
That unit really struggled against Boston College, surrendering 40 points and 380 passing yards to a mediocre Eagles offense.
With the arm talent of Jayden Maiava and the number of weapons at his disposal, there are plenty of paths to big plays for USC if the MSU defense can't clean some things up.
The Spartans will also need to tackle better than they have, as the Trojans have a bunch of skill players who are dangerous with the ball in their hands.
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Talent is Working
This is a critical year for Lincoln Riley and USC, and thus far, it's been a strong start.
The Trojans are averaging 55 points per game, good for second nationally. The talent — which has never been the issue in Los Angeles — appears to finally be living up to its potential.
Signal-caller Jayden Maiava took over as the starter late in 2024 and looks to have made major strides from a season ago now that he's the undisputed QB1.
Granted, it hasn't exactly come against elite defenses, but Maiava is spreading the ball to his playmakers and has been extremely accurate in the process.
Transfer running back Waymond Jordan has been a nice addition to the ground game, and in general, the personnel seems to fit what Riley wants to do within his offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, coordinator D'Anton Lynn is one of the more underrated minds in America. You can see the detailed nature of his scheme starting to pay dividends for the Trojans.
USC will need to be much better in one-possession games if it wants to contend for a Big Ten title and College Football Playoff spot, but I don't know that it needs to worry about that all that much in this matchup against Michigan State.
The Trojans have the more talented roster, and the Coliseum should be rocking for the Big Ten home opener.
Michigan State vs USC Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm a believer in this Trojan team this year, and I don't think the Spartans defense will be able to put up much resistance when USC has the ball.
Couple that with the quick tempo that Riley wants to play at, and I think there's a realistic scenario where USC could score 40-plus on its own.
On the other side of the ball, the Trojan defense is still a little bit unproven, and the MSU offensive attack continues to look better each week.
I don't think Michigan State has the firepower to keep pace with the Trojans in this game, but I do believe it will be able to score plenty.
Smith will also likely be forced to abandon the running game a bit if his team gets down early, which will lead to some more downfield attempts for Chiles.
All of these factors lead me toward the over in this one, given the total still sits well below 60.
Points will be scored in bunches in Los Angeles. Give me the over at 55.5, and I'd play it up to 57.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 57)
