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The West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
Iowa State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -152. West Virginia, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +126 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my West Virginia vs. Iowa State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Prediction
- West Virginia vs. Iowa State Pick: Michael Hawkins Anytime Touchdown + West Virginia 200+ Alt Total Rushing Yards (+107)
My Iowa State vs. West Virginia best bet is on Michael Hawkins to find the end zone and for the Mountaineers to log over 200 rushing yards. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 52.5 -118o / -104u | +126 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 52.5 -118o / -104u | -152 |
- West Virginia vs Iowa State point spread: Iowa State -2.5 (-122), West Virginia +2.5 (+100)
- West Virginia vs Iowa State over/under: 52.5 (-118o / -104u)
- West Virginia vs Iowa State moneyline: West Virginia +126, Iowa State -152
West Virginia vs Iowa State College Football Preview
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: Rushing Mentality
After knocking off Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Classic, 3-0 West Virginia had momentum heading back home to face Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers got off to a fast start, jumping out to 14-3 and 21-13 leads.
The run game led the way again, as Cam Cook and Michael Hawkins Jr. both eclipsed 100 yards on the ground once again. This time, however, the defense couldn't keep pace.
Drew Mestemaker lit up the West Virginia secondary for 389 passing yards and four touchdowns, as the Cowboys tallied 607 yards of total offense. The Cowboys rallied for a 41-24 victory.
After the rough defensive outing, the Mountaineers rank 109th in Success Rate allowed and 134th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Rich Rodriguez's teams have never had much of a defensive identity. On offense, they typically have a 1-2 duo in the backfield.
Against Oklahoma State, the Mountaineers ran for 335 yards and three touchdowns. They're averaging 294.8 rushing yards per game — fourth most in the FBS — and are fourth in run rate.
Cook ranks fourth in the FBS with 510 yards on 5.2 yards per carry.
While he has found the end zone three times already, red-zone rushes are usually reserved for Hawkins. The redshirt sophomore is tied for second in the FBS with nine rushing touchdowns in addition to 425 rushing yards. He has scored six times in the last two weeks.
West Virginia is also leading the FBS in Passing Explosiveness, and Hawkins is averaging 10.2 yards per attempt.
His leading receiver, DJ Epps, is averaging 27.9 yards per catch and has hauled in a 30-yard reception or more in each of the last three games.
Hawkins is averaging 15 pass attempts per game but went only 10-for-22 last week. Moving forward, teams will be looking to make him prove he can beat them with his arm as they load up to stop the run.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Offensive Struggles
After a mass exodus following Matt Campbell's departure to Penn State, Jimmy Rogers has his revamped Cyclones squad at 2-2 on the year.
They were dominant in wins over Southeast Missouri State and Bowling Green but have dropped both games against Power 4 competition with losses to Iowa and Utah.
Thus far, Iowa State has seen a serious decline offensively, going from 38th in Success Rate last season to 119th through four games. It ranks 110th in total offense as well.
Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor has struggled after transferring up to the P4 level.
After completing 66% of his passes in the Sun Belt, he's hitting just 54% of his passes in 2026. He went 21-for-40 for 205 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against Utah.
Running back Aiden Flora has taken advantage of increased playing time this season, rushing for 382 yards and three touchdowns on 7.5 yards per carry. Last week, he was a factor in the passing game as well with five receptions for 53 yards.
Defensively, the Cyclones want to establish an identity of being tough against the run. That showed up in their first three games when they allowed 250 rushing yards on 2.4 yards per carry.
However, the Utes nearly got to that number themselves as they ran for 205 yards, with Wayshawn Parker leading the way with 174 yards and two touchdowns.
Last week's performance moved the Cyclones to 49th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 44th in Rushing Explosiveness allowed. How well they handle West Virginia's vaunted rushing attack likely decides the outcome of the game.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
Dating back to his last appearance with Oklahoma, Hawkins has scored a touchdown in each of his last five games. He has nine rushing touchdowns in his first four starts this season.
Despite having a great back in Cook, Rich Rod often prefers to call his own number in the red zone.
Hawkins ran for 90 yards in each of his first four games this season, while Cook ran for 100 yards in three of his first four games.
The Mountaineers have run for 200 yards every week so far, so we know there will be a strong commitment to their rushing attack.
When pairing Hawkins to score with the Mountaineers to run for 200 yards, we get plus-money for two legs that are correlated with each other.
Tempo could play a factor as West Virginia looks to wear the ISU defense down in the second half. The Mountaineers have averaged 73 offensive snaps per game, while Iowa State's defense has played over 60 snaps just once this season.
Pick: Michael Hawkins Anytime Touchdown + West Virginia 200+ Alt. Total Rushing Yards
