If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence, Kansas, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Kansas is favored by -19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, enters as a +19.5 underdog and is +720 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas Prediction
- Middle Tennessee vs. Kansas Pick: Middle Tennessee +19.5
My Kansas vs. Middle Tennessee best bet is on the Blue Raiders to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas Odds
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +720 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- Middle Tennessee vs Kansas point spread: Kansas -19.5 (-110), Middle Tennessee +19.5 (-110)
- Middle Tennessee vs Kansas over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Middle Tennessee vs Kansas moneyline: Middle Tennessee +720, Kansas -1200
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas College Football Preview
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Rebounding Raiders
Middle Tennessee State has been a much improved football team compared to the first two teams fielded under head coach Derek Mason.
A pair of early-season wins were encouraging signs, and the Blue Raiders also took Marshall to the wire in Week 2. The product on the field looks much more competent, and the quarterback play has been a big reason for the early success.
Roman Gagliano has completed 61% of his passes while throwing for 832 yards with an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while displaying a much better handle on the offense.
Last year, the Blue Raiders were plagued with inconsistent QB play, penalties, and poor situational execution. This year, execution in the red zone has been elevated, and the offense has committed just one turnover.
Antonio Martin has run the ball for 345 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and Terrence Brown Jr. has been a nice complementary back.
Cam’Ron Lacy is a big-play weapon at the receiver position with 29 catches and four touchdowns already this season, and the offensive line has protected well.
This offense is light-years ahead of where it was last season and will succeed on the road against Kansas.
The defense has also improved this season, although it struggled on the road at Jacksonville State last week.
The coverage unit has done well in preventing explosive plays, and performance both on third down and in the red zone has improved tremendously compared to the previous two seasons.
MTSU is allowing touchdowns on just 53% of red-zone trips, and just 15-of-44 third-down attempts have been converted successfully.
Kansas has been in the red zone just twice over the last two weeks and has converted just 9-of-31 third down attempts during that time. This defense could have some success here in this game.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Jayhawks Lack Explosives
Kansas has dropped its last two games after a season-opening win against Long Island and is coming off bizarre travel after playing a conference game in England a couple of weeks back.
The bye week followed, so KU will be fresh and well-rested, but the offense has to be more consistent if Kansas is going to compete with the teams on its schedule the rest of the way.
The offense outgained Arizona State significantly, but of the 414 yards gained, 281 of them came after the midway point in the third quarter, and only one of those drives ended in the end zone.
Quarterback Isaiah Marshall can be creative behind the line of scrimmage, and when he's in rhythm, he looks great.
Some of the decision-making has been poor, though, and if the explosive pass plays aren't there, this offense goes long stretches without being effective.
The Jayhawks' ground game has been largely ineffective this season, but Kansas has committed to the run game, and we should see a heavy dose of run action here.
Leading rusher Dylan Edwards has just 159 yards on the season, while Marshall has actually carried the rock more than anyone else.
Nik McMillan and Nahzae Cox provide explosiveness in the passing game, and the explosives will have to be realized here if Kansas wants to put up a big point total.
The defense has been up and down this season, and we really don’t know exactly what we have out of this bunch given the competition played.
The defense was run over in the Border War game against Missouri but looked good in sloppy field conditions against Arizona State in England.
The defense has struggled against the pass and should see a decent amount of it here this week against Middle Tennessee. Preventing the explosives in the secondary will be key to determining if Kansas can win, and by how much.
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Kansas favored by 21.5 points, and the Blue Raiders have taken some action this week, driving this line down to where it currently sits at 19.5. The total comes in at 49.5. MTSU is the play here.
Kansas has been very sloppy with the football so far this season, with Marshall throwing three interceptions and the offense putting the ball on the turf eight times through three games. Four of those fumbles resulted in a turnover.
That chaotic play isn't sustainable.
Middle Tennessee has had an opportunistic defense this season, forcing seven turnovers. The coverage unit has been excellent at preventing field-flipping explosive plays. If MTSU can force Kansas a methodical game plan, the chances for Jayhawk mistakes increase significantly.
The Blue Raiders have been solid both on third down and in the red zone, so don't be surprised to see Kansas offensive drives stall out, as they have much of the way this season.
You could argue that MTSU has the better quarterback in this matchup. Gagliano has been excellent this season, and the Blue Raiders will have opportunities to move the football and score points.
Don't be stunned to see Lacy have a massive receiving day and for MTSU to make this a competitive game for three quarters. I'll grab the points with the Blue Raiders.
Pick: MTSU +19.5
