The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Arkansas is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. Mississippi State, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +160 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 67.5 total points.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Arkansas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction
- Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Pick: Mississippi State +4.5
My Arkansas vs. Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas Spread: Arkansas -4.5, Mississippi State +4.5
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas Over/Under: 67.5 Points
- Mississippi State vs Arkansas Moneyline: Mississippi State +160, Arkansas -190
Mississippi State vs Arkansas College Football Betting Preview
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Regression Looming for Bulldogs
Few teams in the country have delivered entertainment quite like Mississippi State this year.
The Bulldogs have played in two overtime games since starting SEC play and added another two-point finish against Florida; even a 31-9 loss to Texas A&M featured 23 of the combined 40 points scored in the fourth quarter.
Fun for neutral viewers? You bet. Fun for Mississippi State backers? Not so much.
In that Florida game, State came up empty three times inside the Gators' 30-yard line. However, Mississippi State is 7-1 against the spread this year, greatly exceeding expectations and even visiting the AP Top 25 for a brief period.
Heading into Week 10, top running back Fluff Bothwell remains questionable. He has missed the last two games but has added 465 yards and six touchdowns in six games.
Utah State transfer Davon Booth managed 204 yards over the last two games against Florida and Texas, a pair of good front-seven defenses. The duo leads with the fifth-best Rushing Success Rate in the country through nine weeks.
That rushing success comes despite some significant offensive line movement.
Only one player, center Canon Boone, has played just one position full-time this season. As a result, State has been on the losing side of the line of scrimmage battle more frequently than not in SEC play.
The season-long defensive numbers for Mississippi State are solid, but those regressed heavily in SEC play.
State's defensive front is beatable and also frequently loses the line of scrimmage battle.
Granted, fronts like Texas A&M and Florida are among the best and most physical in the country, but that's the life of an SEC team, and the fact of the matter is, the Bulldogs' defensive line just isn't good enough.
That front grades out as the worst among SEC teams per PFF and as the third-worst in SEC sack rate.
So, while quarterback Blake Shapen continues to be serviceable and an effective run game keeps the offense humming, poor line play on both sides spells certain doom for State, which has yet to play Georgia, Ole Miss and Missouri.
Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Preview: Defense Set to Plague Hogs
Pot, meet kettle (kind of).
Arkansas also struggles with below-average line play and still manages to effectively run the football. However, the Razorbacks' offensive line features much more continuity but less talent.
That run game is boosted heavily by stud quarterback Taylen Green.
Green returned to the field last week in a 33-24 loss to Auburn. Surprisingly, that was just the second-worst loss Arkansas suffered this year at 2-6 (0-4 SEC). It's kept all of its games close, even when outmatched, save for a 56-13 beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame that ended the Sam Pittman era in Fayetteville.
But the Hogs took Ole Miss down to the wire (what else is new there?), as well as both Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Arkansas' average point margin against the SEC and Memphis (essentially tallying its losses and removing an outlier) is -4.4.
Fun!
The ongoing problem with Arkansas is its uncanny inability to keep anyone aside from the local high school JV squad out of the end zone.
The defense essentially spots any quality opponent 30 points and asks the offense to keep up. But aside from wins over FCS Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, the offense hasn't been able to.
Arkansas ranks a dismal 130th in points per drive allowed, and even its top-25 scoring offense the other way hasn't been enough to notch a single Power Conference win.
The problem is — and a problem that was identified in the preseason — that Arkansas doesn't roster an SEC line on either side of the ball. You can't win in the SEC with a subpar line.
With LSU, Texas and Missouri left on the slate, Arkansas has one fleeting chance to notch its lone SEC win this week against Mississippi State.
And yet, Arkansas is a four-point home favorite against an SEC foe, Mississippi State.
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Pick, Betting Analysis
This over/under opened at a lofty 64.5 points and was still bet up to 68.5 by midweek. Mississippi State took a brief look at +4 but moved back to its open of +4.5.
The transitive property in college football is a dangerous place. But measuring recent success against recent common opponents is a decent gauge of teams with similar strengths (though greatly different delivery styles).
Arkansas allowed Tennessee to gain 63% of available yards in that game and, against Texas A&M, a truly startling 81%. (As an aside, Arkansas allowed Notre Dame to gain 94%[ of available yards.) State didn't allow either to surpass 60%.
Though the offense doesn't always take advantage, Miss State has shown an ability to muck up a game plan and get superior opponents out of rhythm with regularity. Against an ultra-efficient Arkansas offense, State will need to do some serious mucking.
Neither team plays great defense in the SEC, but Arkansas's lack of fielding one altogether is seriously concerning — fun, but concerning.
We have a total that doesn't seem to be stopping its upward trend anytime soon. That means both (a) lots of variance and (b) an entertaining watch ahead.
With so much variance and so little confidence in Arkansas, I'm backing the underdog Bulldogs here.
I make this number, Mississippi State +3, with help from normalized aggregate power ratings from around the industry.
Pick: Mississippi State +4.5 (Play to +3)
Mississippi State vs Arkansas Betting Trends
