All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad blue-blood programs. That remains true in Week 8.
Which teams are going to make the College Football Playoff? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Denton, Texas, and Laramie, Wyoming.
While our fields may be blue, gray, or teal, the money won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As Action Network’s resident Group of 5 guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often overlooked teams and matchups while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, October 18.
NCAAF Picks for Week 8 Group of 5 Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 2:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Army vs Tulane Pick
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -360 |
Army’s wins this season have come against a worn-down Kansas State team after its trip to Ireland and the two worst teams in the conference, UAB and Charlotte.
The Black Knights have taken a big step back from last year’s magical run.
Tulane was embarrassed by Army in the American Championship game last season, where the Black Knights ran up the score.
I expect the Green Wave to return the favor.
Jake Retzlaff has moved the ball at will with his arm and legs. He has a trio of talented receivers to throw to, but the running game has been the team’s strength. Retzlaff has rushed for 388 yards and seven touchdowns, while four running backs are averaging at least 20 yards per game — Javin Gordon is the lead man behind a great front five.
Meanwhile, Army ranks 98th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The two best offenses the Knights have faced shredded them for over six yards per play. This is an excellent game for Retzlaff to get the passing game going, as Army ranks 105th nationally in Explosiveness allowed.
Tulane has scored at least 28 points in four of its six games this season. The Wave should have scored at least 28 last year if not for a fumble on the two-yard line and a failed fourth-down conversion at the six-yard line.
The Wave should drop 30 on Saturday.
Pick: Tulane Team Total Over 27.5 (-115, DraftKings)
| | |
Buffalo vs UMass Pick
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +575 |
This is a matchup between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.
On one hand, Buffalo hasn’t been able to build a margin against anybody. The Bulls are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season, with a loss to Troy, a three-point win over Kent State, and a one-point victory against Eastern Michigan.
Meanwhile, everybody has pulled away from UMass. The Minutemen are the nation’s worst team by a wide margin. Temple beat them by 32, Western Michigan beat them by 18, and Kent State beat them by 36.
The offense is pitiful, averaging under 240 yards per game. They’ve scored just 32 points against FBS teams on five total touchdowns.
Buffalo has the MAC’s best defense, with an elite run defense behind All-Conference linebacker Red Murdock, a tackling machine in the middle of the field.
The Bulls are one-dimensional on offense, but Al-Jay Henderson should run all over the Minutemen, and Ta’Quan Roberson can use his legs while working on the passing game with little resistance.
Ultimately, Buffalo might only need to score 17 points to cover. I don’t know if UMass scores.
Pick: Buffalo -16.5 (-110, BetMGM)
| | |
Texas State vs Marshall Pick
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
It’s time to sell high on Marshall.
The Herd have won three of their past four games, with the lone loss coming on the road in double overtime.
However, the wins have come against Eastern Kentucky, a horrible Middle Tennessee State squad, and last week against Old Dominion, which was looking ahead to this week’s matchup against James Madison. Plus, the Monarchs averaged 6.7 yards per play but turned the ball over five times, which ultimately did them in.
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson has looked tremendous, but I’m not sold yet. He has 11 touchdowns to no interceptions, but just three Big Time Throws with two Turnover Worthy Plays. By aDOT, he ranks 16th among qualified Sun Belt passers.
At the same time, Brad Jackson has been excellent, completing 70% of his passes with seven touchdowns to only one interception. The Bobcats are balanced on offense with an elite running back, Lincoln Pare, and Jackson’s dual-threat ability.
Texas State’s defense is weak against the run, but the Herd haven’t been able to run the ball efficiently, ranking 114th nationally in Rush Success Rate.
Over the past two games, Texas State has lost by a combined eight points despite out-gaining its opponents by 237 yards while averaging over seven yards per play.
Marshall has been getting lucky, while Texas State has been getting unlucky.
Even factoring in Marshall’s recent hot streak, our Action Network Power Ratings still make Texas State a 9.5-point favorite on a neutral.
Pick: Texas State -2.5 (-110, bet365)
