College football Week 11 is upon us, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of Five experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Tulsa vs. FAU and Jacksonville State vs. UTEP.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out at over 3-1.
Let's take a look at our NCAAF picks and college football predictions in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 11.
Tulsa +145 vs. FAU
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 63 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| FAU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 63 -110o / -110u | -170 |
By Joshua Nunn
FAU hasn’t given me much confidence defensively. It just doesn't look like a team that can consistently stop opponents. The offense also feels pretty erratic at times.
The Owls are leaning heavily on wide receiver Easton Messer to move the chains, and when Messer and quarterback Caden Veltkamp aren’t clicking or if they stumble on fourth downs, it turns into a nightmare.
Opponents get great field position, and with such a high-risk, high-reward style. It’s a volatile setup that can blow up in their face.
That’s a big deal in these kinds of close, coin-flip games.
Tulsa, meanwhile, has been playing solid ball lately. It hung tough with East Carolina and pushed a much-improved Temple team right to the edge.
I’ve been really impressed with quarterback Baylor Hayes over the last couple of weeks, as he's thrown for nearly 550 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. That kind of efficiency is hard to ignore.
What really hurts FAU, though, is red-zone efficiency. The Owls have been absolutely brutal in close, settling for field goals or coming away empty too often.
That won’t cut it against a Tulsa team that’s going to make its opponents pay for every missed opportunity.
Meanwhile, I like how Tulsa has progressed week to week. Head coach Tre Lamb looks like he’s starting to piece things together with this offense, and I’m expecting them to come out and earn the win.
Jacksonville State -108 vs. UTEP
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
By Mike Calabrese
Where's the love coming from for UTEP team in the market? It's sitting at 1-3 in CUSA play, and all three losses were by double digits.
Sure, Skyler Locklear is an upgrade at quarterback, but he only really makes a difference if he’s consistently dangerous running the ball. His arm isn't reliable enough downfield to keep defenses honest.
Now, Jacksonville State has been solid at shutting down mobile QBs this season.
The Gamecocks handled Sam Houston's Hunter Watson, Liberty's Ethan Vasco and both UCF signal-callers in the opener. They know how to spy, contain and limit those improvisational moments.
If Locklear can’t break off something on the ground, I just don’t see where UTEP’s offensive spark comes from.
Defensively, can UTEP stop Jacksonville State’s run game?
On paper, there are reasons to be optimistic. UTEP tackles well and ranks 16th nationally in Stuff Rate. But here’s the problem: It gives up big plays, ranking 106th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed.
That weakness was front and center against UL Monroe, where they gave up 250 rushing yards, including a 40-yard touchdown and a 72-yarder by a backup that blew the game wide open.
And that brings us to Jacksonville State running back Cam Cook.
If you want one guy who can rip this UTEP defense apart, he’s it. He leads the nation in rushing yards, yards after contact and broken tackles. That’s a scary proposition for a UTEP defense whose biggest problem is giving up rush explosives.
For that reason, I’m backing Jacksonville State here to pull out the win.
Group of 5 Moneyline Underdog Parlay for Week 11
- Tulsa ML +150 vs. FAU
- Jacksonville State ML -108 vs. UTEP
Parlay Odds: +358 (bet365)
