As we move along in Week 4 of the college football season, I have five NCAAF predictions for the afternoon slate, including an ACC clash between NC State and Duke.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 9-7 (56.25%)
- Overall: 178-130-2 (57.8%)
NCAAF Predictions & 5 College Football Afternoon Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | UConn -20.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Eastern Michigan +3 |
  | 4 p.m. | Duke -3 |
  | 4:15 p.m. | Northern Illinois +21.5 |
  | 4:30 p.m. | Temple +24 |
UConn -20.5 vs. Ball State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I had to get my weekly CBS Sports Network game in here.
The Huskies have been snake-bitten so far this season, with back-to-back road losses in overtime (against Syracuse and Delaware) after leading in the final minute of regulation in both. They could easily be sitting at 3-0.
Now, they get to come home and take out their frustrations on a bad Ball State ball club that will be playing its third road game in four weeks, with the other two coming against Auburn and Purdue.
The Cardinals, who picked up their first win of the season last week by five at home over FCS New Hampshire, are probably dying to get to their bye week before hosting Ohio to start MAC play.
Additionally, this is just a great matchup on both sides of the ball for UConn.
The Huskies feature an electric passing attack led by quarterback Joe Fagnano and star wide receiver Skyler Bell. Those two spearhead an aerial assault that ranks in the top 10 nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate.
That's precisely how you want to attack the Ball State defense, which has some solid pass rushers, but is simply void of talent on the back end at both linebacker and safety.
That group ranks in the bottom 15 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, while allowing opposing quarterbacks to combine for 71-for-107 passing (66.4%) for 870 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions — and that includes a home game against New Hampshire.
The Cardinals attempt to compensate for their lack of secondary talent by preventing explosive plays, but Fagnano will happily pick them apart underneath.
I don't see how Ball State gets any stops outside of maybe a few random sacks, but the UConn pass protection has been outstanding to start the year, even after losing two stud tackles.
So, the question becomes, can Ball State's offense score enough points to keep up or at least stay within this number? I highly doubt it.
The Cardinals have a miserable run-first offense led by Kiael Kelly, who converted back to quarterback after moving to wide receiver and cornerback last season. They can't throw the ball, boasting passing outputs of 87, 71 and 105 yards in their first three games.
That's not ideal against a Huskies defense that has some weakness at the cornerback position, which Delaware exploited last week in Newark.
UConn defensive coordinator Matt Brock is extremely underrated in terms of devising unique game plans tailored to each opponent on a weekly basis. I fully expect him to have his guys ready to load the box and take away the Ball State rushing attack, leaving them essentially helpless.
My one concern (besides potential UConn fatigue following two heartbreaking overtime losses) would be Ball State eating up clock to limit possessions, which makes covering three touchdowns a bit more of an arduous task.
Still, this is too good a spot and matchup to pass up.
Plus, UConn does have a competent backup quarterback if this one gets out of hand, which could help limit the chances of a potential backdoor.
Projection: UConn -22.9
Pick: UConn -21 or Better
Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Louisiana
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Back to the well with Chris Creighton as an underdog.
Eastern Michigan should have covered every number against Kentucky last week if not for a clear missed offsides, a bizarre late fake punt, poor fourth down variance and a Kentucky field goal that banked in from 50-plus in the second half.
While the Eagles ultimately lost by 25, they amassed 461 total yards of offense on the road against an SEC defense that had held Ole Miss to six fewer the week prior on the same field in Lexington.
Eastern Michigan's offense actually has some real juice with quarterback Noah Kim.
The same can't be said for its defense, which I expect to struggle immensely this season. The Eagles rank near the bottom of FBS in almost every possible category, but I'm not sure Louisiana can take full advantage.
The Ragin' Cajuns lost their original starting quarterback, Walker Howard, to an injury.
That opened the door for Daniel Beale, who struggled as a true freshman in 2024 despite limited action. He finished last season 13-for-30 passing for 126 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
This year hasn't gone much better.
Beale relieved Howard in the opener against Rice and went 0-for-6 passing in a home loss to Rice in which ULL scored only 12 points.
In the following week against McNeese State, Beale threw for only 86 yards on 22 attempts against an FCS school that gave up 42 to Weber State last week. While Louisiana won that game 34-10, that final is a bit misleading, as it was 20-10 late in the fourth quarter before two short field touchdowns, including a fumble return.
So, did the offense make any progress last week against Missouri? Absolutely not.
Louisiana decided to use two quarterbacks in Columbia with Beale and sophomore Lunch Winfield, who is more of a dual-threat. That pair combined to complete 2-of-14 passes for four yards. That's not a typo.
Louisiana somehow scored 10 points thanks to a tipped pick and one long run. If you remove that run, it had 37 total yards on the other 36 plays. In the second half alone, it ran nine plays for -2 yards.
The offense is completely broken.
Give me the more desperate home team searching for its first win on its home field, where it was last embarrassed by Long Island. I like what I saw last week from the offense again, and the defense showed some real fight following a few schematic and lineup changes.
Louisiana will have success on the ground with Bill Davis and company.
Still, Eastern Michigan has the more reliable offense and better quarterback in addition to the superior coach, who should find a way to pull out a close one by winning in the margins in typical EMU fashion with solid special teams and mistake-free football.
Notable Nugget
Louisiana is 4-12 straight up in one-score games under head coach Michael Desormeaux.
Projection: Eastern Michigan +0.2
Pick: Eastern Michigan +3 (-120) or Better
Duke -3 vs. NC State
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
It's time to buy the dip on Duke following two losses against Illinois and Tulane. If the Blue Devils want to even sniff some of their high preseason expectations, they absolutely need this game.
Well, I believe they'll at least get back on track against an NC State team that has raced out to a 3-0 start but has looked shaky at times in all three close victories against East Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia.
I've liked some of the things I've seen from the Wolfpack offense. Still, the defense has taken a major step back after the talent drain in the offseason, in addition to the loss of highly respected defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who left to take the Marshall head coach position.
It's also worth noting the Wolfpack will have to make do without stud defensive end Sabastian Harsh in the first half due to a targeting suspension. That's a big loss.
Duke has had a more challenging schedule and has been the unluckier team in terms of turnovers, fourth-down variance and other areas. The Blue Devils finished with a -5 turnover margin against Illinois and even had three failed field-goal attempts (one blocked and one failed snap) in a seven-point loss at Tulane.
The Blue Devils don't have the same coverage chops as last year, as they haven't found adequate replacements for cornerback Josh Pickett (now with the Broncos) and future NFL safety Terry Moore (currently injured).
Still, they should at least slow down running back Hollywood Smothers, the engine of NC State's offense.
I'm buying low on a desperate Duke effort that may have some overdue regression headed its way.
Notable Nugget
NC State hasn't won in Durham since 2008.
Projection: Duke -4.1
Pick: Duke -3 or Better
Northern Illinois +21.5 at Mississippi State
4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Under head coach Thomas Hammock, if you just bet NIU as an underdog and faded as a favorite, you'd have a lot more money in your pocket.
He looks to grind games down to a crawl with long, clock-bleeding drives, especially in the role of a large underdog. As a result, it's a very tall task to build a significant margin against the Huskies.
This is also an ideal situational spot for NIU, which will have 15 days off before this game kicks off, following its last appearance in College Park a couple of Fridays ago, where it achieved another successful cover as a large pup.
That break should be helpful for a team that had so much turnover in the offseason from a roster and coordinator perspective.
Additionally, Mississippi State might not be entirely focused on this potentially sleepy spot against a MAC opponent. At 3-0 on the season, the Bulldogs might be peaking ahead to their next two games against Tennessee and Texas A&M.
What exactly does that mean? Well, they could come out a bit flat.
They also might have spent this week preparing more for those opponents. They also might not want to show as much on tape and/or pull their starters sooner than usual with a big lead, especially since they've already suffered a few key season-ending injuries on both sides of the ball.
The NIU offense has plenty of holes, but the electric running back duo of Telly Johnson and Chavon Wright will do just enough on the ground to keep the chains moving to help bleed the clock, while the defense looks pretty feisty once again.
Notable Nugget
As I alluded to above, no coach has more drastic ATS splits in the underdog vs. favorite role than Hammock.
Against FBS teams, Hammock has gone just 5-21-1 (19.2%) ATS as a favorite compared to 24-11-1 (68.6%) as an underdog. That includes a 7-2 ATS mark (77.8%) when catching more than two touchdowns with an average cover margin of more than eight points.
The Huskies even pulled off a few outright upsets in those games against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, in addition to a few other near scares.
Projection: Northern Illinois +19.4
Pick: Northern Illinois +21 or Better
Temple +24 at Georgia Tech
4:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Yup, I'm going back to the well with the Owls after last week's disaster.
Georgia Tech has some service academy vibes under head coach Brent Key and quarterback Haynes King. The Yellow Jackets are a run-heavy, slow-paced team that has consistently thrived in the underdog role but hasn't enjoyed as much success as a favorite with its grinding style.
This is also just a difficult spot for the Ramblin' Wreck, who are fresh off a last-second upset win over Clemson via a 60-yard field goal.
Can they avoid the dreaded letdown against Temple after hearing their praises get sung all week? Possibly, but they likely won't want to run King much, which is such an enormous part of their offense.
While I don't think they're in danger of getting upset and repeating what happened in 2023 at home against Bowling Green and Boston College, I do believe they could be a bit flat and look to get out of dodge with a 17-to-20 point win without outstanding offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner needing to show much or exposing King to too many hits.
It's worth noting that Tech does have an excellent backup quarterback.
Still, I just couldn't pass up taking the Owls in the same ballpark as last week, especially considering Temple has almost no home-field advantage and Tech doesn't have a material one, especially for a game like this.
This will also be a much easier test for the Owls from an overall talent standpoint, especially in terms of tempo and talent.
This is also not an elite Georgia Tech defense. Last week, Temple simply couldn't get into its offense or find anything easy against the elite Oklahoma front.
However, quarterback Evan Simon should have more time in the pocket, and the backs should have more success on the ground in this matchup.
This could mark the top of the market on Georgia Tech, so I'm happy to sell here even if it requires backing the Owls in back-to-back weeks.
Tech's two FBS wins — Clemson and Colorado — might ultimately speak more about its opponents than many believe at this moment.
Plus, it's not like they completely dominated the Tigers, who finished with more yards and averaged over one yard more per play (lost turnover battle 2-0).
Notable Nugget
Georgia Tech head coach Brent Key has a superb 15-6 ATS (71.4%) record as an underdog, covering by nearly 10 points per game on average.
However, he's just 4-6-1 ATS as a favorite against FBS competition, failing to cover by nearly eight points per game. That includes a 2-5-1 ATS mark in home games with a handful of outright losses.
Projection: Temple +22.8
Pick: Temple +24 or Better
