College football Week 6 is here, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of 5 experts from the Big Bets on Campus podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Western Kentucky vs. Delaware and Army vs. UAB.
When paired together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out north of 6-1.
Let's take a look at our Week 6 college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay.
Western Kentucky +120 vs. Delaware
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Delaware Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
I'm going to dive in with a more modest take. I’m like Western Kentucky as a short underdog here at +120 on the moneyline against the Delaware Blue Hens.
The odds feel a little generous, and a lot of that might come down to travel.
Western Kentucky has had a tough couple of weeks, bouncing from Springfield, Missouri, back to Delaware week over week. But head coach Tyson Helton has been around for seven years as WKU's head coach. He knows how to deal with travel and can avoid traps on the road.
On the other side, Delaware has really turned heads with its play this season, and it has the whole conference watching. There's no chance this team will be overlooked, even if it's not in the conference title hunt.
The Blue Hens have become legitimate spoilers, and that’s pushed the line from my preseason estimate, which had Western favored by seven or eight points.
Given what Helton’s team showed last year on the road in beating a tough Sam Houston team under K.C. Keeler and even covering as a 'dog at Boston College, I trust they’ll be ready to roll.
Yes, it’s a short week on back-to-back travel, but I feel like that’s baked into the odds, creating some value here for Western Kentucky.
And let’s not forget this all comes down to Western Kentucky quarterback Maverick McIvor and offensive coordinator Rick Bowie matching up against an average Delaware defense. This Tops offense isn’t as shaky as some pundits are making it out to be.
Sure, expectations were sky-high after Week 1, but the numbers tell a different story.
Last week’s game, for instance, included settling for a field goal on the 1-yard line against Missouri State. Had they punched that in for a touchdown, we’d be talking about 30-plus points and a more comfortable win instead of a tight game down to the wire.
Plus, they executed a flawless four-minute offense to close out the game and put it away.
The key is just avoiding a slow start, especially against Delaware, whose first-quarter defense has been dreadful. The Hens rank 108th in scoring defense in the opening 15 minutes. I expect both teams to come out firing, and this could turn into a high-scoring affair.
I’d rather back Maverick against that shaky Delaware defense than go with Nick Minicucci against a WKU defense that can generate pressure and sacks.
Delaware’s going to struggle to keep him clean, so I’m happy taking the value here with Western Kentucky.
UAB +230 vs. Army
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
By Joshua Nunn
Army heads to UAB, and I’m taking the Blazers as home underdogs here.
We’ve already seen how UAB handles service academy teams. Just look at its trip to Navy when it put up a strong fight, but weather delays in the second half stalled its momentum.
Now, when you look at Army’s secondary, it’s clear it's a step slow. The pass rush isn’t doing much to help either, so this game sets up as a real headache for the Black Knights.
This is their second road game in a row, coming off East Carolina last week, and history isn’t kind to Army down in the Southeast. We’ve seen it struggle badly on the road against teams like Troy, Louisiana Monroe and East Carolina. They just don’t perform well there.
Meanwhile, UAB is coming off a bye week, which gives it some fresh legs and prep time. And while the Army's scheme isn’t identical to Navy’s, the Blazers have already faced a triple-option offense this year, so they have some experience defending it.
Defensively, Army has been porous in recent weeks. Against North Texas and ECU, it allowed completion rates north of 70%, gave up over 500 yards through the air and allowed an average of eight yards per pass attempt.
The Black Knights now own the worst pass rush in the conference and the third-worst coverage grade, per PFF. That's a recipe for disaster against a Blazers offense that can actually move the ball.
UAB quarterback Jalen Kitna is going to have a field day against that secondary. He’s been sharp all season, completing 72% of his passes for 320 yards per game while racking up eight touchdown passes.
Army just isn’t the same team as last year.
Its offense lacks punch and consistent decision-making at the quarterback position. It leans way too heavily on fullback dives and QB runs behind guys like Dwayne Coleman and Cale Hellums, and collectively, they’re averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground. That’s not enough to threaten defenses in a meaningful way.
I’ve already logged the play on UAB plus the points in the Action App. The Blazers are going to take this game on the field, and that's why I’m adding them to our moneyline parlay.
Group of 5 Moneyline Underdog Parlay for Week 6
- Western Kentucky ML vs. Delaware (+120)
- UAB ML vs. Army (+230)
Parlay Odds: +626 (bet365)
