New Mexico vs Texas A&M Odds, Predictions: Can Lobos Keep It Close?
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Conner Weigman (A&M)
- The New Mexico Lobos face the Texas A&M Aggies in Week 1 college football action Saturday night.
- The Aggies enter as big favorites at -38.5, but our NCAAF writer think the Lobos can keep it from becoming a total blowout.
- Check out Greg Liodice's full betting preview and pick for New Mexico vs Texas A&M below.
New Mexico vs Texas A&M Odds
The University of New Mexico Lobos head to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies. It’s a tale of two programs looking to hit the reset button after poor seasons in 2022.
New Mexico is coming in with a new-look roster and a handful of new coaches. Last season was a total disaster for the Lobos; after starting 2-1, they lost the remaining nine games.
A&M's season wasn’t as bad as its counterparts, but it was still filled with an abundance of disappointment. The spotlight is firmly on head coach Jimbo Fisher this season. After an uncharacteristic 5-7 record last year, it’ll be up to the $75-million man to turn this program around in a quick way.
The Lobos were downright putrid last year offensively. In fact, they were the worst offense in the country.
Luckily, they brought in UAB’s offensive coordinator — Bryant Vincent — to run the offense. Vincent had the Blazers clicking on all cylinders; they were among the most explosive offenses in the country and ranked 35th in Success Rate.
With that transition, they’ll be bringing in new names at nearly every position, most notably at quarterback. New Mexico brought in Dylan Hopkins, who's a familiar face to Vincent. Hopkins, a redshirt senior from UAB, threw for nearly 4,500 yards with 31 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.
With a new QB at the helm, the receiving room will need to step up. Luke Wysong and Andrew Erickson are returning, but beyond them, it’s mostly a group that hasn’t seen a ton of reps.
Defensively, it’ll be interesting to see how this team pans out. Former defensive coordinator Rocky Long, who left for Syracuse, had the defense performing decently, given its talent level. They were ranked 80th in Success Rate and 63rd in Havoc, but were also among the more explosive teams.
Long’s departure opened the door for Troy Reffett, who spent the past few years as New Mexico’s cornerback coach.
Last season, De'Von Achane was Texas A&M’s prime source of offense. With Achane now in the NFL, there will need to be a massive adjustment.
The Aggies brought in Bobby Petrino — who has a long history at developing quarterbacks — to be their offensive coordinator.
Sophomore Conner Weigman was recently named the starting quarterback. Weigman took over for Haynes King last season and quickly developed chemistry with receivers Moose Muhammad III and Evan Stewart, who are both back this year.
Most notably, in his first career start, Weigman set a school record for a freshman, throwing for 338 yards and four touchdowns against Ole Miss.
As he continued to get more comfortable, Weigman thrived. Ultimately, he threw for 896 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions.
Under Petrino, I can see this offense washing the stink off from last year, when they were 81st in Success Rate and 102nd in Havoc.
The biggest question mark will be the run game. With Achane gone, it’ll be up to junior Amari Daniels and sophomore Le’Veon Moss to take a step forward. The rest of the running back room either hardly saw the field, are freshmen or came via the transfer portal.
Defensively, it was hard to find a better team last season. They generated a ton of Explosiveness and ranked 46th in Success Rate. While creating Havoc wasn’t necessarily a strength, they were 25th in points allowed.
With Fadil Diggs returning and Walter Nolen primed for a breakout season, this defense looks like it could pick up right where it left off.
New Mexico vs. Texas A&M
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don’t anticipate New Mexico being as terrible as it was a season ago. The head coach is the same, but the new coordinators and quarterback will be a big help. With Hopkins and Vincent reuniting, I think the transition will be seamless.
It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the offense looks with hardly any experience playing together.
Texas A&M is ranked 23rd in the country, so expectations are high. However, the Aggies may be a bit too high. Even though I liked Weigman in his short stint under center, the Aggies still went 5-7 and lost their top producer.
Don’t get me wrong, I see A&M winning this game, but perhaps not as drastically as the books predict.
I think 38.5 is too large of a number, especially given the unpredictability of both teams.