The Old Dominion Monarchs take on the Virginia Tech Hokies in Blacksburg, Virginia. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT on ACC Network.
Virginia Tech is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -275. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13, 2025.
Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Prediction
- Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech Pick: Virginia Tech -7 (-110, BetMGM)
My VA Tech vs. Old Dominion best bet is on the Hokies to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Odds
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +220 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
- Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech point spread: VA Tech -7 (-110), Old Dominion +7 (-110)
- Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech over/under: 51.5 (-102o / -115u)
- Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech moneyline: Old Dominion +220, VA Tech -275
Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Preview
Old Dominion opened as a double-digit ‘dog, but the line has moved closer to a touchdown, which I find ultra-surprising considering Jason Henderson’s retirement.
Henderson was the Group of 5’s elite do-everything tackling machine, amassing a nation-leading 246 tackles between 2022 and 2023.
His (now former) running mate, Koa Naotala, is still an All-Sun Belt caliber linebacker (who led the team in tackles last season with 88), but he has yet to play a snap this season.
On one hand, I’m worried about the Monarchs’ run defense, which was crushed by Indiana (315 yards at 5.6 yards per carry) and is now severely shorthanded.
On the other hand, I wonder if Virginia Tech’s offensive line can get a push against anybody, including Old Dominion’s severely shorthanded front seven. The Hokies’ front five ranks 125th nationally in PFF’s Pass Block grades, 106th in PFF’s Run Block grades, 83rd in Offensive Line Yards, and 103rd in Offensive Stuff Rate.
So far, Virginia Tech quarterback Kyron Drones hasn’t picked up the slack, completing 50% of his 64 pass attempts for a measly 356 yards (5.6 YPA). He threw two picks against South Carolina, although he only has two Turnover-Worthy Plays on the year.
The Virginia Tech defense has been lifeless in the two losses, and the Hokies were ripped to pieces by Diego Pavia and the Commodores last week (.60 EPA per Play, 99th percentile; 61% Success Rate, 99th percentile).
While the top two tacklers from last year’s squad returned for the Hokies (including Jaden Keller), the defense imported a ton of new players from the portal, all playing under a new defensive coordinator (Sam Siefkes). So far, they haven’t found any cohesion, chemistry, or consistency.
Can Old Dominion’s offense take advantage?
I’m a big fan of dynamic dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph, but the offense looked dreadful against Indiana. Aside from Joseph’s two 75-yard touchdown scrambles, the Monarchs managed 170 yards of total offense behind a 35% Success Rate (20th percentile).
Aside from Joseph's return, the Monarchs lost most of their solid skill-position players from last season, and nobody is stepping up. The offensive line is playing okay behind All-Sun Belt-caliber tackle Zachary Barlev. However, the front five is still adjusting to three new transfer starters, and it shows in their PFF Run Blocking grade (53, 112th nationally).
Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech Pick, Betting Analysis
For what it’s worth, Virginia Tech could’ve easily beaten South Carolina on the road in the season opener. The Hokies outgained the Gamecocks (373 to 317) but mainly lost due to their -2 turnover differential.
While they were promptly blown out by Vanderbilt at home last week, that might set up a circle-the-wagon game in Week 3 against a vastly inferior opponent missing two of its best defensive players.
What’s fascinating about this matchup is that both teams boast questionable secondaries and questionable skill-position groups surrounding dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks. I’m unsure if either team will be able to move the ball through the air or if both back sevens will get entirely exposed.
That said, Virginia Tech ranks 35th nationally in Rush Success Rate (52%) following two disastrous losses to Power 4 competition. Meanwhile, Old Dominion ranks 123rd in Rush Success Rate allowed (47%), and that sample includes a game against FCS NC Central, which the Monarchs won 54-6.
Without Henderson or (potentially) Naotala making stops in the run game, I’m somewhat confident in Virginia Tech’s (hopefully motivated) offense to find success on the ground, even if it’s mainly Drones on designed runs and scrambles.
Could Joseph and the Monarchs have similar success against Virginia Tech’s front seven? Absolutely, especially after the Hokies allowed over seven YPC against Vanderbilt.
That said, I’m shocked that this line continues to drop following Henderson’s retirement, as he’s such an important defensive player.
Meanwhile, the Action Network still projects Virginia Tech as a 10.6-point favorite.
If Brent Pry and the Hokies don’t figure it out this week against a Group of 5 opponent (after two Power 4 losses), they may never. But I’m willing to bet that they do, especially after Old Dominion looked pretty rough stepping up in class against Indiana a few weeks ago.
Pick: Virginia Tech -7 (-110, BetMGM)
