The Pitt Panthers take on the Stanford Cardinal in Stanford, Calif. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Pitt is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. Stanford, meanwhile, enters as a +14 underdog and is +450 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here's my Pitt vs. Stanford prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Pitt vs Stanford Prediction
- Pitt vs. Stanford Pick: Stanford +14 (-110)
My Stanford vs. Pitt best bet is on the Cardinal to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Pitt vs Stanford Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Pitt vs Stanford point spread: Pitt -14, Stanford +14
- Pitt vs Stanford over/under: 51 Points
- Pitt vs Stanford moneyline: Pitt -600, Stanford +450
Pitt vs Stanford College Football Betting Preview
Pitt Panthers Betting Preview: Long Trip and Possible Regression
This is not a wager for the faint of heart, and I want to advise everyone that we could easily see the same result as last weekend when Stanford got trounced by Miami.
I was advocating for a Miami steamroll the previous week because of the situational and travel spot, and I'll take out my Uno reverse card to convince you to back the Tree at home.
Pitt has been lighting up the scoreboard lately, but this week’s cross-country trip to Palo Alto is a classic flat spot for the Panthers.
There's no questioning that the offense is light-years better with quarterback Mason Heintschel under center, but a few red flags lead me to believe regression is looming.
Since taking over, Heintschel has made many turnover-worthy throws, yet his stat sheet shows only three interceptions. Stanford is not a schematically tough matchup, but he'd better be careful here.
Traveling three time zones west for a late kickoff has historically been a tough adjustment, especially in the past two seasons. The underlying numbers suggest that Pitt’s recent offensive surge might be masking some glaring defensive cracks taht are due for regression.
While the Panthers’ passing offense ranks 44th nationally in EPA Per Pass, that efficiency has mainly come against average secondaries.
Now, they’ll be facing a Stanford defense that’s quietly shown real strength against the run, ranking 14th in EPA Per Rush allowed at -0.16 and 12th in available yards allowed.
That means Pitt’s ability to sustain drives could take a noticeable dip if it can’t generate chunk plays through the air.
Now that he's due for regression, Heintschel could make a couple of mistakes to keep the Cardinal hanging around.
Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview: Disciplined Offense
On the other side, Stanford’s offense isn’t explosive on paper, but it’s a far cry from the group we saw early in the season.
Despite ranking just 100th in Rush EPA at -0.05, the Cardinal have started to find rhythm on early downs and now sit 50th nationally in early-down EPA Per Play.
That’s a key stat because Pitt’s defense, ranked 31st in early-down EPA allowed, can be stretched laterally due to many injuries in its secondary.
The mismatch comes when Pitt’s defense faces extended drives. The Tree will try to win the time of possession battle because they don't want the Panthers offense on the field long.
Their third- and fourth-down Success Rate comes in at 40%, indicating that Stanford can find some leaks to extend drives.
Pitt vs Stanford Pick, Betting Analysis
The story here is just as much about the situation as it is about stats. This is a brutal scheduling and travel spot for Pitt.
Teams traveling three time zones west have historically struggled with tempo and conditioning, often starting sluggish and failing to finish drives in the red zone.
Pitt’s defense is stout when looking at the metrics, but its injuries will eventually catch up to it. It may not come this week due to the offensive talent it's facing, but it's vulnerable to leaks.
This is a disciplined, slow-tempo Stanford offense. It's precisely the kind of style that can expose fatigue and mental lapses.
At +14, we’re getting too many points for a home underdog with a travel advantage, especially one facing a defense living off turnover luck and red-zone variance.
Pitt’s offensive metrics scream regression, so Stanford should keep this within two scores, if not threaten an outright win for three quarters.
Take the points with the Cardinal and trust the spot; this is an excellent opportunity to sell Pitt high.
Pick: Stanford +14
Pitt vs Stanford Betting Trends
