Making a pick for the natty isn't simple. It's one of the biggest markets of the year — so the odds are typically far too efficient for my liking.
And I love a good under, but find absolutely no pregame value here. TCU and Georgia can score in bunches and six of the last title games — since we started the CFP — have featured at least 60 points in the final showdown.
Here at the Action Network, we ordinarily turn to data over pure gut. But the greatest piece of information I have from watching TCU is that they sure don’t play like Cinderella.
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He might have not gone from backup to Heisman, but based on pure emotion, TCU QB Max Duggan is the best signal caller in college football.
In fact, what’s so impressive about this team is that, all year, they executed when no one gave them the time of day. They had more swagger than Texas and they weren’t intimidated by the maize and blue of Michigan in the semis — and it showed.
As Michigan kept fighting back, TCU answered with their own barrage and carved up the Big Ten’s No. 1 defense. And that’s after their leading rusher Kendre Miller went down early. They plugged in Emari Demercado — a guy who had 472 total yards on the season. Then the guy ran for 150.
This all could be negated by the championship pedigree of Georgia. The issue is that 14 starters on that 2021 team left for the draft. Sure, those returning include QB Stetson Bennett and TE Brock Bowers, but not enough can say they’ve “been there.”
When the game opened at TCU +13.5 at BetMGM, I missed that opportunity, seeing as the number went as low as 12.
Right now, the line is sitting at TCU +13, and I can see the odds getting back up to +13.5 by gametime.
But about 75% of my bets I make are live bets and this is no different. If I can’t get TCU +14, I’m not betting pregame.
Roughly 5% of all football games finish with a 14-point margin — the fourth-most common score behind three points, seven points and six points.
Effectively, there's limited upside in betting on a team's spread at +13.5. At that point, you may as well roll with an alt line of +10.5 at plus-money, with about 5% of all games finishing at a 10-point margin.
So, here's the play: Hope Georgia starts off strong, then take TCU at a clip of +14 or higher.
