The Sam Houston Bearkats take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Texas is favored by -39.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -20000. Sam Houston, meanwhile, is a +39.5 underdog and comes in at +2800 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Sam Houston vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Sam Houston vs Texas Prediction
- Sam Houston vs. Texas Pick: Over 51.5
My Texas vs. Sam Houston best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Sam Houston vs Texas Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+39.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +2800 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-39.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -20000 |
- Sam Houston vs Texas Spread: Texas -39.5, Sam Houston +39.5
- Sam Houston vs Texas Over/Under: 51.5 Points
- Sam Houston vs Texas Moneyline: Sam Houston +2800, Texas -20000
Sam Houston vs Texas College Football Betting Preview
Saturday's in-state Sam Houston vs. Texas clash fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
As its name suggests, the "Big Spread, Low Total, Over," system focuses on games that have a big spread and low total, which often end up going over.
In both regular season and postseason college football, large home favorites in nonconference matchups often create conditions for higher scoring than the market anticipates.
When the point spread is wide but the total is set low, it signals expectations of a dominant performance by one side while undervaluing their ability to score quickly and consistently.
Nonconference games — especially Power 4 vs. Group of 5 games — can feature mismatches in both talent and depth, leading to offensive surges and late scoring from backups against overmatched defenses.
This combination often pushes the total over despite conservative pregame projections.
This system boasts an all-time record of 260-177-10, good for a win percentage of 59.5% and an ROI of 13.7%. In 2025, overs that fit this system have cashed at a 56% clip.
Sam Houston vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
This bet starts and ends with Sam Houston's defense. The Bearkats rank 129th in scoring defense, giving up an absurd 38.7 points per game. That includes 41 to Western Kentucky, 38 to UNLV and 37 to Hawaii.
Just two weeks ago, Texas put up 38 points on a San Jose State defense that isn't nearly as bad as what we've seen from head coach Phil Longo's group.
Things are just as bad when it comes to total defense. Sam Houston has given up 442.3 yards per game (123rd), which is something Arch Manning and the Texas offense can certainly take advantage of.
Manning has yet to figure it out, completing just 55.3% of his passes for 579 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. However, he has been a force on the ground, running for 112 yards and three scores.
That dual-threat ability will be a problem for Sam Houston, making this a perfect get-right spot for Manning and Co.
Despite being unable to stop a nosebleed, the Bearkats have yet to score less than 20 points in a game this season. Any contributions to the scoreboard will be welcome here.
Given the matchup on the field and the historically profitable system this game fits, we'll bet these two teams to go over the total.
Pick: Over 51.5
