San Diego State vs. Hawaii Betting Odds, Pick & Predictions: Good vs. Good, Ugly vs. Ugly
Jennifer Buchanon-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Melquise Stovall
San Diego State vs. Hawaii Betting Odds
- Odds: Hawaii -3
- Over/Under: 48
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- TV: Facebook
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
The blackout chaser game of the week heads back to the Island, where Hawaii will look to take a commanding lead in the Mountain West race.
The Rainbow Warriors would own the tiebreakers for the West division with a home victory on Saturday night over San Diego State, and the winner likely gets a trip to the blue turf to face Boise State for the Mountain West title.
Odds Movement for SDSU-Hawaii
This game has seen a healthy dose of reverse line movement, as Hawaii has been among the least popular bets on the slate (attracting just 19% of both bets and dollars), yet has moved from a pick’em to -3.
The total, on the other hand, has moved directly in line with the betting action, dropping from 52 to 48 behind 88% of bets (accounting for 91% of money) on the under.
Also worth noting is the weather forecast, which calls for 20-plus mph winds throughout the game and could be affecting both bettors’ and oddsmakers’ opinion on the number. — Danny Donahue
Wilson: Good vs. Good, Bad vs. Bad
This game is good on good and very bad on very bad.
Starting with the good — Hawaii is top 10 in success rate offensively and can move the ball efficiently, though not explosively. But overall, it’s a solid offense.
All of that will be needed against San Diego State’s always-excellent 3-3-5 defense, which ranks No. 2 in stopping the run this season.
San Diego State will get away with a rank of 36th against pass explosiveness considering Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro have been pedestrian in tossing the rock over 20 yards. There’s been a bit of a quarterback controversy for Hawaii, with the two each showing peaks and valleys over the last two weeks.
Now the bad. San Diego State’s offense and Hawaii’s defense.
The Aztecs are 130th in rush explosiveness — their running backs are no longer setting records yearly — while the Rainbows are 110th in opponent rushing success.
The only advantage on this side of the ball is Hawaii’s ability to limit big passing plays, something San Diego State has struggled with while moving to the spread offense this season.
SDSU QB Ryan Agnew threw for 323 yards in last week’s victory over Fresno State. The Aztecs had not had a passer go over 300 yards in 65 games since 2014.
Because Hawaii has the better offense, it should find success controlling the clock and moving the chains on offense regardless of who is under center.
Only Fresno State and San Diego State has won the West division since its creation. Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich a fortune teller to Mountain West Media Days before the season began, so expect to see more of that next year if the Bows can win Saturday and capture the West. — Collin Wilson
Kyle: Power Ratings Differ from Market
Like Collin described, I’m willing to call both sides of the ball a wash and that seems to be what oddsmakers have done since they have the home team favored by three points. I see some value on the underdog for a variety of reasons, though.
I power rate San Diego State a little higher than Hawaii, and I make the Aztecs a small road favorite.
I’m also not a trends player at all but some of the Hawaii ATS numbers are staggering. The Rainbows are just 5-17-1 against the spread on the island since 2016 when Rolovich took over. As a home favorite, they’re 3-10-1 in that same time frame. Fading Hawaii at home has been a very profitable strategy.
Winds are expected to be howling in Honolulu on Saturday night and that’s driven the total down to 48 from 52.
Oddsmakers clearly see the wind having an affect on this game, but who do you think the wind will affect more? I’ll take the team that doesn’t rely solely on its passing offense to win games. — Kyle Miller
Kyle’s Pick: San Diego State +3 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey’s Special Teams Corner
This game reminds me a lot of Fresno State-San Diego State last week. While the Hawaii offense is more potent than Fresno’s, it’s still a matchup of a very good offense (Hawaii) vs. a very good defense (SDSU) and a very poor offense (SDSU) vs. a very poor defense (Hawaii).
Well, if everything washes itself out, one thing to note is the area often forgotten: special teams.
And when it comes to the third phase of the game, you have to give the nod to SDSU as the Aztecs have a significantly better special teams unit.
Per SP+, San Diego State has the 10th ranked special teams unit which is a whopping 100 spots better than Hawaii’s 110th ranked unit.
The Aztecs have the much better punter and a kicker who’s 17 for 20 on the season.
Hawaii’s kicker? Just 7 for 13.