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Florida at Ole Miss Betting Odds & Pick: How to Bet Lane Kiffin’s Return to the SEC (Saturday, Sept. 26)

Florida at Ole Miss Betting Odds & Pick: How to Bet Lane Kiffin’s Return to the SEC (Saturday, Sept. 26) article feature image

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Elijah Moore (8).

  • Florida is set to take on Ole Miss in Lane Kiffin's head coaching return to the SEC.
  • While Gators defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is no stranger to Kiffin's play calling, Florida's offensive line may struggle to protect quarterback Kyle Trask.
  • Collin Wilson breaks down the SEC matchup and details why he's taking the points with the Rebels.

Florida at Ole Miss Odds

Florida Odds -13.5 [BET NOW]
Ole Miss Odds +13.5 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 57 [BET NOW]
Time 12:00 p.m. ET

Odds updated late Thursday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Florida Gators travel to Oxford, Mississippi to take on the Rebels of Ole Miss as both teams’ season-opener at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. Ole Miss will be trotting out a new head coach this season, as Lane Kiffin makes his return to the SEC after his stint coaching Florida Atlantic.

Predicting how Lane Kiffin calls a game as an SEC head coach may be the biggest wild card of the weekend. Florida Atlantic ran exclusively out of 11 and 12 personnel with an even distribution between the run and pass. Now, Kiffin is handed two quarterbacks with very different skill sets in Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee.

Corral has plenty of history with Florida and Dan Mullen after being a previous commit to the Gators. The Long Beach native was sacked 13 times in 72 drop backs last season but won the starting job after the most recent Rebels scrimmage. Winning the job does not guarantee Corral all the snaps, as the speed of Plumlee should have him under center, in the slot, or anywhere he can turn on the jets.

No. 1 LSU got the win …

But that didn't stop @OleMissFB freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee from introducing himself to the Tiger defense 💨

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) July 3, 2020

The biggest question is if Todd Grantham’s defense will be ready for the multiple looks from Ole Miss. The Gators return 67% of a defense that was 21st in success rate during 2019. Primarily a 3-3-5 defense, Florida has been known to blitz often from multiple looks.

Grantham has had multiple stops in a defensive role for SEC programs since 2010, so he’s no stranger to Kiffin’s play-calling.

The Ole Miss offense should continue to be innovative, explosive and sometimes stalled in moving the chains. As for the Florida offense, Kyle Trask is back under center behind an experienced offensive line that struggled with pressure.

Trask had a -13 differential in big-time throws versus turnover-worthy throws, per Pro Football Focus. Regression should come for Trask’s turnover ratio, but Ole Miss may not be the defense to force the issue. This is the first game for the two-headed defensive coordinator role between Chris Partridge and DJ Durkin.

This game gets a Jefferson Pilot timeslot as a number of storylines go down. COVID-19 has affected each team to varying degrees: The Gators have reported three cases and the Rebels have reported 27 players who have missed a scrimmage this month alone. Trask will work against a secondary that gave up more 10-yard passing plays than any defense in the country in 2019.

This bet is against a Florida offensive line that has failed to protect Trask. With a projection under two touchdowns, grab Ole Miss at +14 if or when it pops and pray that the Rebels’ nearly inevitable list of COVID-19-related inactives does not include key line-movers.

The Bet: Ole Miss +14

[Bet Ole Miss to cover against the spread now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

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