College Football Odds, Picks for SMU vs TCU

The TCU Horned Frogs aren't that far removed from a College Football Playoff appearance. However, they were upset by Colorado in their season opener as large favorites.

That upset changed the market opinion on the Horned Frogs, and the jury is still out on how bad of a loss that defeat to the Buffs was.

Despite bouncing back with two dominant performances against Nicholls and Houston, TCU is only favored by a touchdown in this matchup. A big reason why is that its opponent deserves some respect.

The SMU Mustangs took care of business in their two wins, but also showed that their passing attack was legit in their loss to a ranked Oklahoma team. They outgained the Sooners, but were derailed by turnovers.

So, which side of SMU vs. TCU will cover the spread? Let's dive in to find out.

I highlighted the SMU passing attack in the open because it's going to be a significant factor in this matchup.

The Mustangs have thrown the ball nearly 53% of the time, but we could see that rate go up here because it's the best way to attack this TCU defense.

The Horned Frogs got shredded by Shedeur Sanders in Week 1, and Preston Stone has the ability to replicate that performance.

SMU ranks 15th in Offensive Explosiveness, while the TCU defense ranks 110th in Explosiveness Allowed.

However, it's not just the Mustangs' ability to make big plays that will keep them in this game. They should find consistent success through the air, as TCU ranks 112th in completion percentage allowed and 117th in yards per pass allowed.

This is a prime matchup for Stone and company. The key will be giving Stone time to shred the Horned Frogs and put points on the board.

The Horned Frogs proved they're a fun team to watch offensively when they went blow-for-blow with Colorado.

From that performance, we also know what to expect from them.

TCU is going to test the SMU defense with its tempo, but the Frogs will do so by running the ball down the Mustangs' throats.

The Horned Frogs come into this matchup 10th in the country in yards per rush.

However, the Mustangs appear to be up to the task defensively. These two teams are dead even in Line Yards and the Mustangs rank 11th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed through three games.

TCU could also put this game in the hands of quarterback Chandler Morris. Let's not forget Morris is capable, as he won the job over Max Duggan last season.

The Horned Frogs' passing attack is solid, but again, SMU may have an answer.

The Mustangs are fifth in Pass Play Success Rate Allowed and they're 10th in Sack Rate.

This game will be a good barometer for the TCU offense.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and TCU match up statistically:

SMU Offense vs. TCU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	86	24
Line Yards	61	27
Pass Success	60	92
Havoc	3	84
Finishing Drives	47	32
Quality Drives	12	53

TCU Offense vs. SMU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	19	11
Line Yards	34	33
Pass Success	34	18
Havoc	36	56
Finishing Drives	65	83
Quality Drives	28	11

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	37	104
PFF Coverage	92	88
Special Teams SP+	16	43
Middle 8	4	24
Seconds per Play	24.8 (28)	21.3 (2)
Rush Rate	51.1% (65)	52.7% (77)

This number opened at seven and has since come down from that key number, hovering around 6 to 6.5. It's because the Mustangs are ready for this matchup — at least on paper.

SMU will be able to throw the ball with great success, and it appears capable on the defensive side of the ball.

With the number where it is, I would recommend buying this spread up to the key number of 7. You need to be price-sensitive when buying points, and I wouldn't pay for the seven if it's above -130.

You can get a 7 at bet365 for -125 at the time of writing.