South Alabama vs. Bowling Green Odds, Prediction Pick: How to Bet This Week 2 College Football Matchup (Sept. 11)

South Alabama vs. Bowling Green Odds, Prediction Pick: How to Bet This Week 2 College Football Matchup (Sept. 11) article feature image
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  • The South Alabama Jaguars and Bowling Green Falcons hit the field in Week 2 college football action on Saturday.
  • With Kane Wommack at the helm, the Jaguars have the opportunity to improve significantly on the defensive side of the ball.
  • Alex Kolodziej breaks down the game and shares a betting pick based on his analysis below.

South Alabama vs. Bowling Green Odds

Saturday, Sept. 11
4 p.m. ET
ESPN+
South Alabama Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14
-115
51
-115o / -105u
-650
Bowling Green Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14
-105
51
-115o / -105u
+460
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Saturday’s Bowling Green-South Alabama game might fly under bettors’ radar. I promise you, it shouldn’t

Although the two mid-majors are small fish in the big pond that is college football, they’re clearly trending opposite directions.

I’m going to give you the scoop on one of the sport’s most well-kept secrets.


South Alabama Jaguars

I couldn’t escape Kane Wommack last fall if I tried.

If 2020 Indiana football was a bingo card, the 34-year-old defensive coordinator celebrating a turnover or being cited for his elite game-planning on the broadcast may as well have been the free space. It happened every damn week.

Stellar defensive plays had usually been few and far between in Bloomington, but Wommack was a star. He helped the Hoosiers hold five of their seven opponents to 21 points or fewer during the regular season. Overall, Indiana’s defense finished No. 14 in the country in DF+.

Wommack took the South Alabama job and crushed it in the opener, beating Southern Miss 31-7.

His club will do even more damage in both areas this Saturday.


Jaguars Offense

South Carolina and Utah transfer quarterback Jake Bentley looked comfortable in the opener, completing 17 of his 22 attempts for 269 yards and two scores. The Jaguars finished Week 1 ranked 12th in the country in EPA/pass (0.294).

The biggest caveat is how much more damage South Alabama could have done.

The offense picked up an atrocious 0.9 yards per carry on the ground, and future NFL wide receiver Jalen Tolbert (five catches for 168 yards) didn’t even find the end zone.


Jaguars Defense

Wommack isn’t calling plays this season. That’ll be Corey Batoon, who’s notably spent time as the coordinator at Hawaii and most recently Liberty.

This is a stellar head coach-defensive coordinator combination.

Batoon was phenomenal with the Flames last season, holding seven of the 10 opponents under the team total during the regular season; add another tally to the under following Southern Miss’ Week 1 performance.

Up next in Week 2 is an opponent this staff will have no problem with.

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Bowling Green Falcons

While Wommack and South Alabama plan to wreak havoc on the Sun Belt, Bowling Green’s just trying to stay out of the basement. If head coach Scott Loeffler can finish with a better record than Akron, consider it a monumental success for a reeling program.

Naturally, the Falcons haven’t recorded a win since beating — you guessed it — Akron on Nov. 2, 2019.


Falcons Offense

To pile it on even more, the aforementioned victory over the Zips was also the last time Bowling Green scored more than 24 points in a game.

The Falcons failed to find the end zone against Tennessee last Thursday in a 38-6 loss. They strung together a pair of consecutive, 11-play drives which both culminated in field goals during the first half. Otherwise, they punted eight times and turned the ball over on downs twice.

The offense clocked out of Week 1 with the second-worst EPA/rush (-0.583), behind only UMass.


Falcons Defense

Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton could barely complete a forward pass and the Vols possessed the ball for nearly seven fewer minutes than the Falcons. Still, Tennessee hung 38 – and it could have been a lot, lot more.

Dating back to 2019, Bowling Green has allowed 31 or more points in nine straight.

South Alabama can score at will, but that’s not the play to make.


South Alabama vs. Bowling Green Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Bowling Green match up statistically:

South Alabama Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rushing Success
100
107
Passing Success
94
52
Havoc
115
31
Line Yards
107
117
Sack Rate
121
88
Finishing Drives
119
125

Bowling Green Offense vs. South Alabama Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rushing Success
32
68
Passing Success
122
122
Havoc
78
116
Line Yards
38
73
Sack Rate
69
111
Finishing Drives
126
53

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
125
86
Coverage
83
69
Rush Rate
54.4% (67)
60.2% (24)
Seconds per Play
71
50
Special Teams SP+
8
44

Data via College Football Data (CFBD) and FootballOutsiders; SP+ projection per ESPN.


South Alabama vs. Bowling Green Betting Pick

Wommack spent all last season devising game plans for formidable Big Ten offenses. Batoon was a monster in his own right at Liberty, with a schedule featuring games against Virginia Tech, NC State, Coastal Carolina, and Syracuse, among others.

This will be far and away the easiest test for the coaching staff as a collective sum. And the biggest message you can send an upstart program is beating the complete crud out of a bottom-feeder like Bowling Green.

This is all about pride. Wommack has the keys to his first real gig and started off with a bang, winning a coin flip by 24 points.

Saturday’s opponent is truly in a class of its own, scoring 17 points or fewer in six of the last seven dating back to 2019, much less in the worst conference in college football.

Wommack and Co. will not let anyone score, no matter how out of hand the game gets. The only hope Bowling Green has of topping the number against South Alabama’s crafty defensive staff is if the Jaguars play with 10 defenders on half of their snaps.

Pick: Bowling Green Team Total Under (17.5 or better)

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