South Alabama vs Texas State Odds, Prediction, Pick: Jags Have Advantage (Saturday, Nov. 25)
Brian Bahr/Getty Images. STILLWATER, OK – SEPTEMBER 16: Running back La’Damian Webb #3 of the South Alabama Jaguars celebrates a 17-yard touchdown with tight end Todd Justice #86, center Reggie Smith #67, and wide receiver Javon Ivory #13 against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second quarter against at Boone Pickens Stadium on September 16, 2023 in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
South Alabama vs Texas State Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +190 |
The Sun Belt finale pits teams with drastically different campaigns relative to the preseason expectations.
South Alabama has won their last two, rallying to finish a disappointing season strong. Texas State has lost two in a row, a small slide after earning the school’s first bowl berth in a surprisingly good rebuilding season.
The Jaguars are favored by about a touchdown despite being the visitors. This game could have a lot of points in San Marcos, with a total of 58.
Read on for our South Alabama vs Texas State Odds, Prediction, Pick.
The Jaguars have had disappointing results in Kane Wommack’s third season, but this is still one of the better outfits in the Sun Belt. Following last year’s 10-win season – but second place in the Sun Belt west — the veteran team had eyes on the Sun Belt title.
A few tough midseason losses have cost them their highest goals, but this is still one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and one you’ll see during bowl season. The team ranks 65th in offensive SP+ and 45th in defensive SP+.
The offense is driven by big plays, something Texas State has struggled to defend this year. They rank 10th nationally in Explosiveness, largely thanks to running back L’Damian Webb – the team is third in the country in Rush Explosiveness.
Webb has 1,007 yards on the season and 16 scores and is one of South Alabama’s “big three,” along with quarterback Carter Bradley and receiver Caullin Lacey. Lacey is one of the best players in the Group of Five this year, with 80 catches for 1,222 yards.
The South Alabama offense does not sacrifice in other areas in the name of big plays. They are middle of the FBS pack for Success Rate (51st) and excellent at Finishing Drives (21st).
The defense is solid, too. Led by star nose tackle W’ykevious Thomas, the Jaguars' front is seventh in rush explosiveness allowed and 24th in rush success rate allowed.
They have bottled up Marshall and Arkansas State’s ground games in the past two weeks, allowing a total of 156 yards on the ground between those two contests.
Like their offense, they are excellent in the red area, ranking 15th in Finishing Drives on defense.
After coming out of the season like gangbusters, Texas State is limping to the finish line.
They opened with a stunning upset of Baylor and clinched the school’s first-ever bowl game spot in the middle of the season, but are fighting through injuries and ineffectiveness down the stretch. Last week, they were demolished, 77-31, by Arkansas State.
When the Bobcats were right, their offense was on fire with head coach GJ Kinne’s unique playbook.
Auburn transfer TJ Finley has run this system precisely, completing 68% of his passes for 2,919 yards and 17 touchdowns to only seven picks. He has a trio of quality receivers: Joey Hobert, Kole Wilson and Ashtyn Hawkins.
In particular, Hobert’s work out of the slot has made this offense click.
But the most significant stat line belongs to running back Ismail Mahdi. He has 1,112 rush yards on the season, but his work in the receiving and return games means he leads the nation in all-purpose yardage.
This is an efficient offense, not a big-play offense, ranking 82nd in Explosiveness and 10th in Success Rate.
Defensively, the Bobcats have struggled, ranking outside the top 100 in defensive SP+. Last week’s 77 points surrendered was the nadir, giving up 7.3 yards per carry to Arkansas State.
They struggle with allowing big plays, ranking 126th in Explosiveness allowed. That’s the strength of the South Alabama offense.
In particular, it’s a jarring mismatch on the ground: The Jaguars are third nationally in Rush Explosiveness, and Texas State is 128th in preventing that.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Texas State match up statistically:
South Alabama Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 113 |
Texas State Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 24 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 38 | 24 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 112 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 75 | 57 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 43 | 44 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 77 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (69) | 23.5 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 53.4% (71) | 54.5% (60) |
South Alabama vs Texas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Texas State has had a fantastic season, and the future is bright for the Kinne era in San Marcos. But the team hasn’t played its best ball lately and is coming off one of the season's worst losses.
South Alabama is a veteran outfit playing hard down the stretch. Even if it's not going to reach the pinnacles it hoped for entering the season, this is still a quality group playing sound football.
I’ll side with the Jaguars, especially considering their advantages in big plays and finishing drives.
Pick: South Alabama -6 (Play to -7)
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