The Syracuse Orange take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
SMU is favored by -17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. The total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my Syracuse vs. SMU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Syracuse vs SMU Prediction
- Syracuse vs. SMU Pick: Syracuse +17.5
My SMU vs. Syracuse best bet is on the Orange spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Syracuse vs SMU Odds
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -115 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -105 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Syracuse vs SMU point spread: SMU -17.5
- Syracuse vs SMU over/under: 58.5 points
- Syracuse vs SMU moneyline: Syracuse +550, SMU -800
Syracuse vs SMU Pick, Betting Analysis
It's been an inconsistent season for the Orange so far, as they upset Clemson in Death Valley before getting slaughtered by Duke 38-3 at home the following week.
Now the Orange are 17.5-point underdogs against a .500 SMU team.
The Mustangs entered the season ranked in the AP Poll Top 25, but they've since fallen out of the rankings after a loss in double overtime to Baylor and a defeat against TCU. SMU made the CFP last year with quarterback Kevin Jennings at the helm, so it still has an experienced signal caller.
This will be the Mustangs' first ACC game of the 2025 campaign, but our very own Evan Abrams has a system — "Fade Home Fav. In-Conf W/ 0 ATS wins" — that says the Orange should cover.
In fact, that system holds a 8.6% return on investment (ROI) since its inception in 2005. Its overall record sits at 122-97-3 since 2005.
In regular season college football conference play, home favorites with no wins against the spread often find themselves overvalued by the market.
Despite poor ATS performance, the perception of home-field advantage and overall team strength can keep lines inflated.
Facing familiar conference opponents who understand their tendencies, these teams are more vulnerable than the odds suggest.
The combination of public bias, inflated spreads and proven inability to cover creates consistent value in fading the home favorite in this situation.
Pick: Syracuse +17.5
