Texas A&M-N.C. State Betting Guide: Offenses May Go Pass-Heavy in Gator Bowl 2018

2018 Gator Bowl Betting Odds: Texas A&M-N.C. State

• Odds: Texas A&M -7
• Over/Under: 56
• Date: Monday, Dec. 31
• Location: Jacksonville, Fla.
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

N.C. State quarterback Ryan Finley is looking to end his college career on a high note, while signal-caller Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are looking to cap off a successful first season under coach Jimbo Fisher.

The Aggies lost a heartbreaker to Clemson (and probably should have won), hung closer with Alabama than almost anyone and blew a late lead to Auburn.

Mond is just a sophomore, and the Aggies have a lot to look forward to next year.

Market Watch for Gator Bowl

By Danny Donahue

Getting 83% of tickets, Texas A&M is currently the most popular bet of bowl season. Those bets have accounted for just about the same percentage of money (82%), which has moved the Aggies’ line from -4.5 to -7.

The total has dropped from 58.5 to 55.5 as the 51% of bets hitting the under have generated 70% of actual money.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

— Texas A&M and LSU are both up against superior opponents when it comes to their win-loss records, but inferior opponents when it comes to the point spread. Since 2005, this has been a recipe for SEC success in bowl season.

When the SEC team has a worse winning percentage, but is favored in the bowl game, they are 24-9 (72.7%) straight up (SU), winning by 11.4 PPG, and 19-14 (57.6%) against the spread (ATS), covering by 4.9 PPG.

— Over the last five years, one quick way to lose money betting in bowl season is to back a team after the line move, when the public is backing that team — Texas A&M fits the bill in this game.

Since 2014, when a team has at least 60% of the tickets and sees its point spread move against it (-4.5 to -6), it has been a recipe for betting disaster in bowl season.

N.C. State's Best Win Is …

By Steve Petrella

Texas A&M has a top 10 strength of schedule by any measure because it plays in the SEC West. N.C. State does not. The Wolfpack's best wins came against Virginia, Marshall and Boston College, and they lost to Clemson and Syracuse.

Quarterback Ryan Finley was great all season, and so was the offensive line, but it came against some porous defenses.

N.C. State is also 1-6 ATS in its last seven against SEC teams.

N.C. State Down its Best Weapon

By Steve Petrella

Wolfpack wide receiver Kelvin Harmon will sit out of the Gator Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. He had 81 catches and 1,186 yards (12th nationally).

Per Expand the Boxscore, Harmon commanded 27% of his team's targets and was tied for the lead in red-zone touches. He will be missed.

How Much Can A&M Rely On its Run Game?

By Steve Petrella

The Aggies have a balanced offense — 22nd rushing and 25th passing — but there's no doubt running back Trayveon Williams has been the star.

Williams ran for 1,524 yards (6.0 per carry) and 15 touchdowns, adding another 27 catches. Quarterback Kellen Mond also has good escapability, too. If you don't count sacks as rushing yards, he had 599 (5.4 per carry) and six touchdowns.

But it will be interesting to see how A&M approaches this game on offense with N.C. State boasting a much better run defense (22nd in yards per carry allowed) than pass defense (85th). It's possible the Aggies throw the ball more than normal.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

This game will be defined by the Texas A&M pass defense against the air attack of North Carolina State. The Wolfpack are led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, who threw for 3,789 yards and 24 touchdowns.

N.C. State prefers to pass on any down and distance with a rushing efficiency rank of 104th and explosive rank of 118th. The Wolfpack offensive line does a great job in protecting Finley, ranking top 5 in the nation in sack rate. That could be a problem for Texas A&M, which is better against the rush (14th in S&P+) than the pass (88th in S&P+).

The bigger issue for head coach Jimbo Fisher, who is familiar with N.C. State from his ACC days, is the explosiveness factor. Finley is more efficient than he is explosive, but Texas A&M is 126th in defending pass explosiveness. With the Aggies issues against explosiveness and NC State ranking third in third-down conversion percentage, Finley should have no issues getting down the field.

Texas A&M has issues protecting the ball (-8 in turnover margin) and ranks 88th in defensive finishing drives, as well.

With The Action Network projection of Texas A&M at -5.5, take NC State +7 and rely on the more efficient offense.

Collin's Pick: N.C. State +7 or better