Texas A&M-N.C. State Betting Guide: Offenses May Go Pass-Heavy in Gator Bowl 2018

Dec 31, 2018 06:00 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kellen Mond and Ryan Finley

2018 Gator Bowl Betting Odds: Texas A&M-N.C. State

  • Odds: Texas A&M -7
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Date: Monday, Dec. 31
  • Location: Jacksonville, Fla.
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of Sunday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets


N.C. State quarterback Ryan Finley is looking to end his college career on a high note, while signal-caller Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are looking to cap off a successful first season under coach Jimbo Fisher.

The Aggies lost a heartbreaker to Clemson (and probably should have won), hung closer with Alabama than almost anyone and blew a late lead to Auburn.

Mond is just a sophomore, and the Aggies have a lot to look forward to next year.

Market Watch for Gator Bowl

By Danny Donahue

Getting 83% of tickets, Texas A&M is currently the most popular bet of bowl season. Those bets have accounted for just about the same percentage of money (82%), which has moved the Aggies’ line from -4.5 to -7.

The total has dropped from 58.5 to 55.5 as the 51% of bets hitting the under have generated 70% of actual money.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

— Texas A&M and LSU are both up against superior opponents when it comes to their win-loss records, but inferior opponents when it comes to the point spread. Since 2005, this has been a recipe for SEC success in bowl season.

When the SEC team has a worse winning percentage, but is favored in the bowl game, they are 24-9 (72.7%) straight up (SU), winning by 11.4 PPG, and 19-14 (57.6%) against the spread (ATS), covering by 4.9 PPG.

— Over the last five years, one quick way to lose money betting in bowl season is to back a team after the line move, when the public is backing that team — Texas A&M fits the bill in this game.

Since 2014, when a team has at least 60% of the tickets and sees its point spread move against it (-4.5 to -6), it has been a recipe for betting disaster in bowl season.

N.C. State’s Best Win Is …

By Steve Petrella