Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Betting Picks, Predictions: Updated Texas Bowl Spread on the Move

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Betting Picks, Predictions: Updated Texas Bowl Spread on the Move article feature image
Credit:

John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kellen Mond

  • Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma betting odds (updated as of 6 p.m. ET): The spread has Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under is at 55.
  • This line has dropped throughout the day on Friday as news filtered out that Cowboys starting quarterback Spencer Sanders could return for the 2019 Texas Bowl.
  • See our experts' betting picks and predictions for Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl, including bets on the over/under and spread.

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks

  • Odds: Texas A&M -4
  • Over/Under: 55
  • Time: Friday, 6:45 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Houston, Texas

Texas A&M is the No. 16 team in our power ratings, but a brutal schedule that featured five losses to top 13 teams didn’t put the Aggies anywhere near a New Year’s Six bowl. Instead, they’ll head to Houston to take on Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys strung together a nice season behind a once-again explosive offense, led by freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders. He’s available for the Texas Bowl after suffering a thumb injury in late November, but we don’t know if he’ll play the whole game. He was previously ruled out for the season.

Can the Aggies’ solid defense get the job done, or will the offense hold them back in the Texas Bowl? Let’s dive in.


Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Texas Bowl Line Movement

Early action push Texas A&M from -4 to -6.5, and even reached -7 at one point. But that number disappeared quickly and has been trending in Oklahoma State’s direction over the last few days. More than 60% of bets are on the Cowboys.

Friday afternoon, Oklahoma State fell all the way to +4 on news that starting quarterback Spencer Sanders will play.

Almost 70% of bets on the total are on the over, but 60% of money is on the under.  — Steve Petrella

Wilson: Signs Point to Slug Fest

Oklahoma State’s offensive numbers in pace and passing success have little meaning with the absence of Sanders and star receiver Tylan Wallace. Despite RB Chuba Hubbard’s decision to play, Texas A&M fields a top 25 defense against rush explosiveness and top 40 in line yards.

The Cowboys defense has quietly been one of the best in the Big 12, as a rank of 33rd against pass explosiveness will eliminate anything downfield from Texas A&M. The Aggies will have rushing success against the Cowboys, particularly in short yardage situations.

The Aggies rank 112th in seconds per play, one of the slowest tempos in college football. Oklahoma State has been without their primary playmakers and went under the total in their final three games against Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma.

Texas A&M never went over the total in any trips away from Kyle Field this season. Our Action Network projection sits at 55, so with the factors listed above, I’m looking at the under.

Collin’s Pick: Under 55 or better

Stuckey: Why I Like the Under

All eyes in this one will be on the nation’s leading rusher — Hubbard, who is just 64 yards away from eclipsing 2,000 on the season and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

Unlike Hubbard, who decided to participate in this bowl, Texas A&M star defensive tackle Justin Madubuike decided to sit out in preparation of the NFL draft.

Jayden Peevy is a fine backup in the interior of a solid Texas A&M defensive line but the Aggies will no doubt miss their star defender Madubuike, who’s absence will also hurt depth up front. This unit held Georgia to 97 rushing yards on 36 carries.

The A&M defense was rock solid all year, especially considering its gauntlet of a schedule. Mike Elko’s unit did give up a bunch of explosive passing plays but who wouldn’t when you face a schedule that included the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

I still like this secondary, which should be able to contain an Oklahoma State passing attack without the dynamic Wallace.

Hubbard should get his yards on the ground but he won’t run wild like he does in the Big 12. And when Oklahoma State gets down into the red zone (an area its struggled in all season), Texas A&M should lock down on defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Texas A&M offense just lacks any real explosiveness both in the passing and run games. However, it’s a very efficient offense that should move the ball methodically down the field against a fairly inefficient Oklahoma State defense. The Pokes can get to the quarterback on passing downs, which could be an issue against a Texas A&M offensive line that has struggled with protection at times.

But ultimately, I think quarterback Kellen Mond can move the sticks on a fairly regular basis — just at a very slow pace.

The spread looks about right to me as I have it right around -6/-7. I don’t think you’ll see too many big plays in this one and both teams should sustain a few long drives that will keep the clock moving. Give me a piece of the first half under 27 and under full game, which I may add to at the half.

Stuckey’s Pick: 1H Under 27, FG Under 55

Kyle: Injuries Key in Texas Bowl

Finding out who is playing can be just as big of a factor in bowl games than finding out which team is motivated. The Texas Bowl features injuries from both Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, but the Cowboys have been hit much harder throughout the season.

Oklahoma State be without quarterback Spencer Sanders at full strength, and will definitely be without star wide receiver Tylan Wallace. In their two games without Sanders, the Cowboys are averaging just 18 points per game.

Though backup Dru Brown was in the competition to start at quarterback in fall camp, he’s proven to be far less dynamic than Sanders, particularly in the run game. Luckily for Mike Gundy, he’ll still have Hubbard.

Despite having one of the best running backs in the nation, Oklahoma State ranks just 70th in rushing success rate. The Cowboys rely on Hubbard hitting long running plays for their offense to work, a task that will be much more difficult without the threat of Sanders to keep linebackers and defensive ends from flowing directly to Hubbard. This was evidenced by Hubbard’s two lowest rushing totals of the season coming with Brown under center.

This game will be on the shoulders of Kellen Mond and I think he’ll be up to the task since Texas A&M hasn’t run the ball and is down to one scholarship back.

There’s always the chance that a star like Hubbard goes nuts in his last college football game, but I expect Texas A&M to be in control throughout the game.

I make the Aggies a 9-point favorite so I like them in this spot against at banged up Oklahoma State team.

Kyle’s Pick: Texas A&M -4