Texas Tech vs TCU Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston.
Texas Tech vs TCU Odds
|Texas Tech Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
As the first set of College Football Playoff rankings hits the news, college football consumers continue to check when the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella.
TCU finished the 2021 season without a bowl game on the schedule and on a mission for a new coach. Sonny Dykes made the trip from across the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and has the Horned Frogs as a national title contender.
The Big 12 is famous for knocking itself out of the playoff race, but TCU looks to buck that trend with a two-game lead over nearly every team in the conference.
Texas Tech also underwent a coaching search that was rumored to include Dykes, as his father, Spike, served as the long-term coach at the end of the Southwest Conference era.
The Red Raiders pulled Joey McGuire, Baylor's associate head coach under Dave Aranda and a Texas high school coaching legend.
McGuire has allowed his coordinators to take control of play calling, an attractive aspect that drew Zach Kittley from a historic Western Kentucky offense.
Texas Tech has three losses in conference standings, but it needs two more wins to reach bowl season. A win in Week 10 would all but cement a postseason trip for the Red Raiders, who have Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma scheduled through November.
A quarterback bonanza has come about in Lubbock, as Donovan Smith and Tyler Shough were considered the leading contenders for starting duties throughout the summer.
Enter freshman Behren Morton, who took over starting duties in Week 6 against Oklahoma State. He posted four touchdowns to one interception in two games against the Cowboys and West Virginia.
The wheels came off of Morton against Baylor last week, as the highly-touted freshman threw five turnover-worthy passes while his targets doubled their number of drops from the previous two games drops. The mistakes came in all areas of the passing game, with an adjusted completion drop of 20% in crowded pockets.
One of Morton's best skills is his ability to scramble, gaining 11 yards on 19 attempts this season.
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) October 8, 2022
McGuire reiterated that Morton would practice with the first team in preparation for TCU. No matter which quarterback is under center, Kittley aims to make this the fastest offense in the nation with a current average of 20.4 seconds per play.
The Red Raiders have been excellent in standard downs explosiveness, a byproduct of blitzing the opposing defense and limiting substitutions. A half-dozen wide receivers have at least 25 targets, with Xavier White the most explosive at 2.4 yards per route run.
Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter has overachieved with a unit that ranks top-30 nationally in Success Rate. The defensive line has been key against the pass and rush, with a top 40 mark in line yards and pass rush.
Edge rusher Tyree Wilson has been an absolute animal, generating 40 pressures with an even balance coming from the left and right side of the defensive line. Only two other FBS edge rushers have generated more hurries than Wilson.
Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson (#19) displaying relentless power with a jab-push-swim combo against the OT before then splitting a double team and finishing the rep with a sack. #NFLDraft#TexasTechpic.twitter.com/Q87pT3WEpo
— Brock Kruske (@KruskeNFLDraft) September 26, 2022
The Horned Frogs were featured on the latest edition of Bad Beats, putting Dykes' offense in full focus. An offsides free play resulted in the 22nd passing touchdown of the season for Max Duggan.
TCU continues to be an offensive juggernaut with weapons in the run game and explosive targets on the outside. Kendre Miller, passed over by McGuire in recruiting at Baylor, is the seventh-best running back in elusiveness, per PFF.
If Miller wasn't explosiveness enough in rushing attempts, wide receiver Quentin Johnston is a top-10 receiver in yards per route run of all players with a minimum of 50 targets.
Johnston had a slow start to the season but nearly doubled his total targets in Week 6 against Kansas. Another 14 targets were added against Oklahoma State, making the junior the most explosive weapon in the Big 12.
Quentin Johnston has scored a touchdown in 4 straight games! He’s been a problem for defenses and no answer has been found!pic.twitter.com/85wDJ7gKGI
— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) October 29, 2022
While the offense is one of the best in the nation, TCU has declined on the defensive side of the ball. All Big 12 opponents have scored at least 24 points, as the Horned Frogs have fallen to 117th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Coordinator Joe Gillespie runs an aggressive nickel defense that lacks in bite, ranking just 80th in Havoc.
Texas Tech vs TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and TCU match up statistically:
Texas Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
TCU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||81||32|
|Seconds per Play||20.4 (2)||27.0 (84)|
|Rush Rate||44.1% (116)||54.7% (57)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas Tech vs TCU Betting Pick
The battle of West Texas between Dykes and McGuire is more about which defense can get a stop.
Texas Tech runs offense at a lightning pace, relying on a top-20 rush explosiveness number to move the chains.
TCU rarely plays in opponents' backfields with a tackles-for-loss rank outside the top 100. The Horned Frogs are mid-FBS against rush explosiveness, a testament to the high tackle grading at the second level of Gillespie's defense.
If Texas Tech plans to keep up offensively with TCU, the Red Raiders must gain more first downs and become less reliant on chunk runs.
TCU is an elite offense in creating long plays from scrimmage both on the ground and through the air. If Texas Tech is doesn't make contact with an opposing rusher at or behind the line of scrimmage, an explosive play is generally the result.
There's reason to believe TCU will look to run away from Wilson or elect to pass quickly to avoid a devastating pass rush. Because Wilson lines up on both sides of the offensive line as an edge rusher, the focus lands on the tackle position. Both Andrew Coker and Brandon Coleman rank outside the top 100 in pass-blocking grades of all tackles with at least 100 snaps this season.
Duggan averages a casual 2.7 seconds per pass, but that will be sped up against the Red Raiders' defensive line.
Action Network projects the line directly at TCU -9.5 with a total of 69.
Texas Tech has struggled to sustain drives that end in touchdowns. A Havoc Allowed ranking sheds light on 11 fumbles on the season as another hurdle the Red Raiders must overcome each week.
TCU does give up explosive plays, but a top-50 rank in Standard and Passing Downs Success Rate suggests there will be punts from the Red Raiders.
TCU is expected to continue to roll on offense, with no resistance to Miller, Duggan or any other rusher. However, Texas Tech ranks 11th in Defensive Standard Downs Success Rate, suggesting that TCU will find itself in passing downs.
With both Horned Frogs offensive tackles struggling to break the top 100 in individual pass blocking, Texas Tech will secure some stops with an aggressive pass rush.