The Tulane Green Wave take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, Miss. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Ole Miss is favored by -12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 61 points.
Here’s my Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Prediction
- Tulane vs. Ole Miss Pick: Under 61.5
My Ole Miss vs. Tulane best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -500 |
- Tulane vs Ole Miss point spread: Ole Miss -12.5
- Tulane vs Ole Miss over/under: 61.5 points
- Tulane vs Ole Miss moneyline: Tulane +375, Ole Miss -500
Tulane vs Ole Miss Preview
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview: Can They Keep Rolling?
Tulane has looked sharp through three games, though this is its first test against an SEC opponent — albeit a flawed one defensively.
While Ole Miss ranks 50th in Success Rate Allowed (a respectable mark), it's vulnerable to big plays, sitting at 90th in Explosiveness Allowed.
Tulane, for its part, isn't an elite running team, but it's shown enough to believe it can exploit this matchup:
- 61st in PFF Rush Grade
- 42nd in Rushing Explosiveness
If the Green Wave can control time of possession and keep the ball out of Ole Miss’ hands, they’ve got a legitimate shot to keep things close — and slow. In particular, they should be able to run the ball on an Ole Miss team that leaves a lot to be desired on the ground.
Ole Miss ranks in the bottom 30 nationally in:
- Rushing Success Rate Allowed
- Rushing Explosiveness Allowed
- Rushing Points per Attempt Allowed
If Tulane is going to stay competitive, this is where it'll need to capitalize.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: A Predictable Juggernaut?
The Rebels may have lost quarterback Jaxson Dart and wide receiver Tre Harris to the NFL, but Lane Kiffin — ever the portal maestro — has restocked the cupboard. One thing he clearly learned from his time with Nick Saban: You don’t rebuild in the SEC — you reload.
The most intriguing storyline might be at quarterback. Trinidad Chambliss, a surprising starter last week, made the most of his opportunity by throwing for over 350 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 60 yards and two scores.
Despite the breakout performance, Kiffin appears set to roll with Austin Simmons this weekend.
This is a puzzling move. While the sample size is admittedly small, both quarterbacks have posted identical Big-Time Throw (BTT) rates. However, Simmons has five Turnover-Worthy Plays (TWPs) to Chambliss’ zero — a stat that should give pause.
Regardless of who starts at quarterback, this offense is clicking in the right areas. The Rebels rank:
- 25th in Standard Down Rate
- Top 25 in Offensive Success Rate
- Top 25 in Points per Opportunity (PPO)
Translation: Ole Miss stays ahead of the chains and converts drives into points. Expect a run-heavy, methodical game plan from Kiffin as the Rebels look to control the pace.
I also expect a cheap turnover from Simmons; he's been playing with fire in his snaps.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Pick, Betting Analysis
There are two main takeaways when approaching this game from a betting perspective:
- I'm not buying into Simmons. While the offensive metrics for Ole Miss are strong, Simmons has shown some ball security issues that could be costly against a Tulane team that'lll look to bleed clock and control tempo.
- Both teams are likely to lean on the ground game, especially if Ole Miss is going with a less experienced quarterback. Expect long drives, fewer possessions and a slower overall pace.
This game may not be the track meet some expect. Instead, look for a more old-school, trench-heavy SEC-style showdown — something you wouldn’t have predicted from these two programs just a few years ago.
Pick: Under 61.5
