The Tulsa Golden Hurricane take on the Memphis Tigers in Memphis, Tennessee. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT on ESPNU.
Memphis is favored by 20.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. The total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my Tulsa vs. Memphis prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Tulsa vs Memphis Prediction
- Tulsa vs. Memphis Pick: Memphis -20.5 (-110, bet365)
My Memphis vs. Tulsa best bet is on the Tigers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulsa vs Memphis Odds
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- Tulsa vs Memphis point spread: Memphis -20.5 (-110), Tulsa +20.5 (-110)
- Tulsa vs Memphis over/under: 57 (-110o / -110u)
- Tulsa vs Memphis moneyline: Tulsa +750, Memphis -1200
Tulsa vs Memphis Pick
This game triggered one of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, which is powered by our guy Evan Abrams.
The Right Favorite is a college football system built on recognizing when the betting market underestimates a favorite.
In the regular season, when an opponent is coming off a loss by 7 to 23 points, perception often inflates their chances of rebounding. However, those weaknesses typically carry over into the next game.
By focusing on contests where the total is set between 55 and 100, the system narrows in on games expected to have higher scoring, which makes it more difficult for struggling teams to keep pace.
Limiting the sample to the first 11 games ensures the analysis applies before postseason adjustments in motivation and preparation occur.
Finally, the spread filter targets situations where the line is set with the other side catching points, but not in extreme ranges, allowing favorites to deliver consistent covers.
Together, these conditions create a profile where the favorite is positioned as the stronger play despite public bias suggesting otherwise.
Not only has this system achieved a 58% lifetime win rate (11.5% ROI), but it’s also 5-3 this season, recently cashing in on Boise State against Appalachian State (47-14 win as a 17-point favorite), North Texas against South Alabama (36-22 win as a 13-point favorite), Memphis (45-27 win as a 14-point favorite), and Texas Tech against Oregon State (45-14 win as a 24-point favorite).
With all the roster turnover, I was skeptical about the Tigers in the preseason. But they’ve proven me wrong, as they’re 5-0 while ranking 31st nationally in Net Yards Per Play (+1.84).
Quarterback Brendon Lewis has been fine through the air, but it’s his dual-threat rushing ability that makes the offense so dangerous. Between him and backfield mates Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers and Frank Pleasant, the Tigers currently lead the nation in EPA per Rush.
That spells trouble for a rebuilt Tulsa front seven that ranks 91st nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. The Hurricane have allowed a whopping 737 rushing yards over the past three weeks.
I still believe that head coach Tre Lamb and quarterback Baylor Hayes are both slightly underrated. However, the offensive metrics don’t look pretty, as the unit ranks 114th nationally in EPA per play, largely due to a horrific rushing attack.
Even worse, Tulsa runs at an uber-fast pace, ranking second nationally in offensive plays per game (82) and defensive plays per game (79).
Thus, we should expect to see a million possessions in this game, providing ample opportunity for Memphis to build a significant margin in a blowout victory.
It’s also worth mentioning that our guy Collin Wilson is backing Memphis, giving me more confidence in this wager.
Pick: Memphis -20.5 (-110, bet365)
