College Football Odds, Picks: ULM vs Texas A&M Betting Prediction, Preview (September 16)
Photo by Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images. Pictured: Conner Weigman (Texas A&M)
ULM vs Texas A&M Odds
Texas A&M is 1-1 on the season, but was run out of Florida by the Miami Hurricanes last week.
Meanwhile, UL Monroe is undefeated, with wins against Army and Lamar. The good news? A 2-0 record. The bad news? The Warhawks only beat Lamar by 10 points.
Both of these teams have something to prove, albeit at complete opposite ends of the college football spectrum.
A&M is playing to prove it can compete in the SEC this year and possibly claw its way into the College Football Playoff.
Conversely, ULM is playing to prove it's better than a bottom feeder.
If their first two games against Lamar and Army are proof of what's to come, expect the Warhawks to keep the ball on the ground. They're ranked in the top 30 in Rushing Success Rate, Rushing EPA/Play, Rushing Explosiveness and Rushing Play Rate.
They have kept the ball on the ground 56% of the time, and I'd bet that rises after this game.
ULM should be looking to make sure it limits the amount of opportunities it has to turn the ball over. It'll also try to keep the clock moving. That all adds up to a possible big day for running backs Isaiah Woullard and Hunter Smith.
On the defensive side, the Warhawks have been stout. Of course, the caveat being that they haven't played a Power-Five team, or a team that throws the ball particularly effectively.
So, despite their favorable defensive ratings (top-50 in each of the defensive five factors metrics, and seventh in points per opportunity), they could be in for a rude awakening at Kyle Field.
If the Aggies want to be a true contender in the SEC this year, they need to clean up pretty much every facet of their game.
Against Miami, they allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown, threw a pair of interceptions and looked like they never practiced defending the pass. They have to limit their mistakes.
This is an excellent bounce back spot for Conner Weigman. I'm expecting the Aggies to try and get their air attack back on track by throwing a lot this weekend.
A&M already throws at a 61% clip — the eighth-highest rate in the country — but hasn't been particularly effective and ranks 75th in Passing Success Rate. I expect the Aggies to attempt to turn this into a track meet, especially with ULM's ability (albeit against lesser competition) to stop the run.
Defensively, the Aggies' secondary should be taking a collective sigh of relief, as it gets to match up with its strength: a rushing attack. Texas A&M's defense ranks in the top 20 of Rushing PPA Allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
Expect a lot of three-and-outs from ULM as it attempts to run the ball on early downs and often finds itself in third-and-long situations.
ULM vs Texas A&M
Betting Pick & Prediction
I feel a little bad for the Warhawks, as I think they're walking into an absolute buzzsaw in College Station.
I expect A&M to put on a show through the air at Kyle Field.
We have this game projected at closer to 31, but I'm fine paying for a few extra points.
I'll also look at Texas A&M team totals when they open, as well as Weigman passing props.
In short, look at anything that allows you to bet on the Aggies succeeding through the air.
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