The UMass Minutemen take on the Akron Zips in Akron, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Akron is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. UMass, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +375 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 points.
Here’s my UMass vs. Akron prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, November 4.
UMass vs Akron Prediction
- UMass vs. Akron Pick: Akron -9.5 (Play to -12.5)
My Akron vs. UMass best bet is on the Zips to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UMass vs Akron Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- UMass vs Akron point spread: Akron -10.5, UMass +10.5
- UMass vs Akron over/under: 49.5 Points
- UMass vs Akron moneyline: UMass +325, Akron -425
UMass vs Akron College Football Betting Preview
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview: An Absolute Mess
So, you’ve decided to read a college football article involving the UMass Minutemen — welcome.
First-year head coach Joe Harasymiak likely hoped for a better debut. UMass is 0-8, many of those eight losses falling outside the realm of competitive.
Its -27.7 point margin is almost the worst in the country (thanks, Oklahoma State), and just one FBS game was competitive, a near-win against Buffalo that UMass handed back to the Bulls.
But this isn’t your run-of-the-mill bad MAC team — this is truly a historically bad MAC team.
According to Sagarin power ratings, UMass ranks 227th in Division I, behind the likes of Lindenwood, Central Connecticut State and Dayton. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks the Minutemen 221st among all divisions nationally, behind 12 Division II teams and right in line with Division III North Central (IL).
The metrics paint a picture as bleak as the 0-8 record implies. UMass ranks last in net Success Rate and net available yards gained, last in net points per drive, and third-to-worst in net yards per play.
Freshman AJ Hairston took over for transfer Brandon Rose at quarterback after three games.
Hairston’s three touchdowns to four interceptions is certainly an improvement to Rose (no touchdowns, two picks), but he has completed just 63% of his passes, even adjusting for drops and throwaways (46.6% otherwise).
Hairston attempted 51 passes in a 38-13 blowout at the hands of Central Michigan, a product of both trailing for most of the game and the run game getting nothing going. Outside of a 43-yard and 21-yard run by running back Rocko Griffin and Hairston, respectively, UMass averaged 2.17 yards per carry.
The week before, when UMass took Buffalo to the brink, running back Brandon Hood broke loose for 194 rushing yards (including a 90-yard touchdown run), and Hairston attempted only 14 passes.
The route to any sort of offensive success comes against slower-paced teams that keep UMass around. If Hood (or any of the stable of backs) get going, the Minutemen can play the game clock game, keep the defense off the field and stay within reason.
But that’s grasping at straws given the obvious lack of talent across the roster.
Akron Zips Betting Preview: Time to Back Zips?
Despite no banana at the end of the stick — Akron is ineligible for a bowl regardless of record due to a bum Academic Progress Rate score, a punishment handed down this summer — the Zips have displayed some measure of fight through nine games this year.
Last week, Akron took down Buffalo on the road thanks to five takeaways in a game that both (a) wasn’t as tightly-contested as the 24-16 final suggested, and (b) was self-inflicted by Buffalo.
One of the Bulls’ turnovers came around the goal line when Akron held a 3-2 lead.
Ben Finley has done what he can with no receiving weapons to speak of for the last two seasons. He’ll put the ball in harm’s way trying to push it down the field, which is really a net positive on Akron’s plodding offense that rarely finds anything better than five yards.
This year has been an especially challenging one for the Zips, who don’t have a true workhorse running back. Jordan Gant is probably Akron’s best offensive weapon, but he gets help from the line in front of him. More than 60% of Gant’s rushing yards per touch (3.18 of 5.0) come after contact.
Those offensive line struggles are both a result of and have resulted in nine different linemen playing at least 200 snaps so far.
Defensively, Akron has some life.
The Zips stand 67th in points per drive allowed — a data point that exists despite 68-0 and 45-3 blowouts — and every level of the defense is capable of forcing turnovers.
An aggressive scheme affords Akron multiple ways of creating havoc.
Eleven different defenders are credited with at least one sack this year, and six have at least one interception. It’s an opportunistic unit led by linebacker Gage Summers, who logged a few takeaways himself against Buffalo.
There’s not much talent, but there’s plenty of fight for this Akron team with little to play for. While speculation that the school and head coach Joe Moorhead should part ways continues each year, it’s clear the buy-in is still there from the roster.
Ahead are three winnable games: UMass (136th in aggregate power ratings), rival Kent State (at home, 135th) and Bowling Green (a team in freefall with no offensive threat).
UMass vs Akron Pick, Betting Analysis
If you’re here to evaluate putting real U.S. currency on Akron vs. UMass, then you are a true sicko, and I commend you. You are one of us.
Akron is a tough team to gauge due to its tendency to play up to and down to opponents.
The Zips upended Central Michigan and Buffalo (a combined 7-2 in MAC play) while also getting 40-pieced by Ball State (128th in points per drive); it played to a 10-0 slapfight with Wyoming to start the year, too.
Few teams in the country truly lack explosive potential on offense like the Zips. So, when they do score, it’s on lengthy drives that bleed lots of clock. Sometimes, those long drives come up empty, and Akron made a change at kicker, moving away from Owen Wiley (4-of-10 kicking this year).
UMass hangs around when teams let it, rather than clawing its own way into the games itself.
In MAC play, 46% of UMass’ drives resulted in three-and-outs (23-of-50), and only long drives keep these games within reason, given the down-to-down net Success Rates of each.
This is a team on a downward trend that now has to play just its second non-Saturday game since 2020 and first true weeknight game since 2014.
InfoCision Stadium is one of the least-filled stadiums in the country (it averaged just 21% fill last year), and Akron averaged the fewest fans per game last year. It’s a sleepy midweek MACtion environment.
If this is a checked-out team come Tuesday night, we’ll certainly find out. And if UMass isn’t checked out, it's still out-talented at nearly every level, even by the other worst teams in FBS.
The Minutemen’s lone 10-point finish featured astounding levels of ineptitude and gaffes from Buffalo. I don’t foresee that kind of result again.
Pick: Akron -9.5 (Play to -12.5)
UMass vs Akron Betting Trends
