College Football Odds, Picks for Utah State vs UConn: Huskies Can Keep It Close

After four years away from coaching, Jim Mora returned to the game in Storrs, Connecticut, and immediately took UConn to its first bowl appearance since 2015.

The Huskies had expectations of returning to the postseason again this year, but they've been a massive disappointment in the Nutmeg State.

The Huskies are 0-4 on the season, including a disappointing loss to Florida International two weeks ago. They got drummed by Duke last week and are still in search of that first win.

A similarly disappointing sentiment is surely present in Logan as well. Utah State won the Mountain West Championship in its first season under Blake Anderson with an 11-3 record. In his second season last year, it fell back to 6-7 but still managed a bowl appearance.

Now, the Aggies are off to a 1-3 start with their lone win coming over FCS Idaho State.

Both teams likely have this game circled as an absolute must-win if they want a chance to reach a bowl this season. Unfortunately, one of them will lose to a below-average team and fall into an ever-deeper hole.

Passing the ball has been a real struggle for Utah State the last two years. After Logan Bonner went down with an injury early last year, Cooper Legas stepped in and threw nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns.

His issues continued, and he was benched halfway through Week 2.

True freshman McCae Hillstead has been given the reins of the offense and has thrown for seven touchdowns and 601 yards in his first two starts. He did throw three interceptions last week against James Madison, so turnovers are still an issue, but he gives the Aggies a higher ceiling in the passing game.

Slot receiver Terrell Vaughn is his top target, racking up 38 catches and six touchdowns through four games. He has found the end zone in each game and has at least 10 catches in three out of four. He's coming off a 124-yard performance against a stingy James Madison defense and has 12 catches for 93 yards, plus a touchdown against Iowa.

The Aggies run the ball pretty well with a three-way committee of Davon Booth, Rahsul Faison and Robert Briggs, who are each averaging over 38 yards per game. Utah State ranks 17th in the country in Rushing Success Rate this season.

The biggest issue for the Aggies comes on the defensive side of the ball. To put it nicely, this unit has been an abomination.

The Utah State defense ranks 130th in the country in Success Rate and is pretty much equally bad against the rush and the pass.

The Aggies gave up 24 points to Iowa, which is basically 74 against any other team. In each of the last three games, they have surrendered over 420 yards and 5.0 yards per play.

Idaho State threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns through the air, Air Force ran for 344 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, and James Madison put up over 500 yards and 7.0 yards per play, shredding them with the pass and run.

They can't stop a nosebleed right now.

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Maine transfer Joe Fagnano won the UConn quarterback job out of camp but went down in the second game with a shoulder injury and is out for the year. That has allowed Ta’Quan Roberson to step back in as the starting quarterback.

A former Penn State transfer, Roberson was the starter entering last season before tearing his ACL on the second series of the year.

Roberson is much more of a dual-threat quarterback and has tossed three touchdowns since taking over. He hasn’t used his legs much yet as he eases back from injury, but he did run for a score last week against Duke.

While Roberson hasn't had a huge impact on the ground yet, the Huskies' backs have.

Victor Rosa, a Connecticut native coming off an 11-touchdown season, is averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and will continue to lead the way for the Huskies — especially after Devontae Houston announced he will redshirt the rest of this season and enter the transfer portal.

That's a big loss for UConn, but another hometown kid in Cam Edwards will be tasked with filling his role.

The run game gets to operate behind an offensive line that returns four of its five starters from last season. Star guard Christian Haynes anchors the unit after being named to multiple preseason All-American teams.

UConn’s defense was the team’s strength last year, but it hasn't had the same juice early this season.

It's still elite at preventing big plays, ranking 24th at defending explosiveness, but teams have been able to move the ball on the Huskies on a down-to-down basis.

Linebacker Jackson Mitchell was a Butkus Award semifinalist last season after racking up 140 tackles but has not made the same elite impact this year. He's averaging eight tackles per game, down from over 10 last season, and managed just two tackles against Duke.

Safety Durante Jones is still strong on the back end, but UConn needs to do a better job at defending the pass. Part of that is putting pressure on the quarterback. The Huskies have just five sacks on the year, which ranks 114th in the country.

We know UConn wants to run the ball and slow the game down. This should be a good matchup for it to get the running game going against a Utah State defense that ranks 127th nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate. The Aggies have allowed nine touchdowns on the ground already this season.

The Huskies have had a difficult schedule to start the season but now face a Utah State team that's really struggling, especially on defense. That should allow the UConn offense to finally settle in with Roberson under center and find some confidence.

While the Utah State offense has looked impressive with Hillstead at quarterback, the Huskies are due for positive regression on defense.

Mitchell is off to a slow start, but he's one of the best linebackers in the country and can wreck a game by himself. He had 16 tackles, a sack and a fumble recovery against the Aggies last season.

UConn has not yet put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but Utah State ranks 106th in pass blocking grade and has allowed 12 sacks this year to rank 111th in the country. If there was ever a game to get into the backfield, this is it.

We should also see turnover regression for the Huskies soon, as they've forced just one turnover all season. Eventually, the ball is going to bounce into their arms. Again, this is a good matchup against a team that has already thrown five interceptions through four games.

If you're into the intangibles and motivation angles, after transferring from Penn State and winning the starting job, Roberson's torn ACL came against Utah State last season. He left with a 7-0 lead in a game the Aggies would come back to win.

I’m expecting him to have a good game here with some extra motivation to finish what he started.

Utah State has to fly all the way across the country to Hartford for what will feel like a 10 a.m. kickoff. While the Aggies will at least be able to find some good pizza in Connecticut, it’s never easy flying across the country like that.

I like the Huskies to keep this one close until the end, as 6.5 points is just too many for the Aggies to be laying on the road here.