The Virginia Cavaliers take on the Cal Golden Bears in Berkeley, California, on Saturday, Nov. 1. Kickoff is set for 3:45 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Virginia is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. Cal, meanwhile, comes into this game as a +5.5 underdog and is +170 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. Cal prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Virginia vs Cal Prediction
- Virginia vs. Cal Pick: Cal +4.5
My Cal vs. Virginia best bet is on the Golden Bears to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Virginia vs Cal Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Virginia vs Cal Spread: Virginia -5.5, Cal +5.5
- Virginia vs Cal Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- Virginia vs Cal Moneyline: Virginia -205, Cal +170
Virginia vs Cal College Football Betting Preview
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Trust the Ground Game
After going 5-7 last season, Virginia has been one of the nation's surprise teams. It's off to a 7-1 start and is up to No. 16 in the AP Top 25.
The Cavaliers have even gotten love in Vegas, as they've been a double-digit favorite in each of the last two games. However,
Virginia managed to sneak by Washington State, 22-20, and North Carolina, 17-16, in overtime — a pair of teams that have combined for six wins this season.
Still, the Cavaliers will not apologize for winning games. They're currently in position to play in the ACC Championship game for just the second time in school history.
The offense is led by quarterback by Chandler Morris, a former four-star recruit at Oklahoma. After transferring back to a Power Four program from North Texas, Morris has completed 67% of his passes and thrown for 1,801 yards with 12 touchdowns and five rushing scores.
Morris has spread the ball around effectively, as three of his Cavalier teammates have 25 receptions and 300 receiving yards, led by Trell Harris.
Virginia enters this game tied for 18th in Passing Success Rate. However, big plays have been harder to come by, as they're 103rd in passing explosiveness.
Putting the passing game aside, they do rank eighth in rushing explosiveness, and J'mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee each have touchdowns of 60-plus yards this season.
Taylor leads the way with 581 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, which is tied for second in the ACC. However, running room has been limited of late. He's averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in ACC play.
Defensive end Fisher Camac will have some added motivation, as 15 of his family members will be traveling for the game. The last time he played against Cal, the Arizona native had three sacks in the LA Bowl. He has 1.5 sacks and a fumble recovery this season.
The Cavaliers will look to continue taking the ball away, ranking 11th in the country with a +8 turnover margin. Junior defensive Ja’Son Prevard leads the team with three interceptions.
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview: Freshman Quarterback Productive Despite Loss
Cal returns home this week after losing, 34-27, in overtime to Virginia's rival, Virginia Tech. It sits at 5-3 and 2-2 in the ACC, and will host Virginia for the first meeting between the schools.
True freshman quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele threw for a career-high 286 yards in the loss last week. He has thrown for 200 yards in every game this season, becoming the second true freshman in FBS history to do so.
He flashed major arm talent with 11 touchdown passes, but he has seven interceptions as well, which are a sign of freshman mistakes.
UNLV transfer Jacob De Jesus has been highly productive from the slot and ranks second in the ACC with 55 receptions while doubling as a dangerous return man.
Senior wide receiver Trond Grizzell and sophomore tight end Mason Mini are both over 300 yards on the year, and at 6-foot-4, they both give Keawe-Sagapolutele big targets to get the ball to.
Cal has had two rushing touchdowns or more in each of the past four games.
Running back Kendrick Raphael ran for a career-high three rushing touchdowns and is up to eight for the season. He's fourth in the conference in rushing touchdowns while proving to be a workhorse with an ACC-leading 135 carries for 566 yards.
The Golden Bears typically have a stingy pass defense under ninth-year head coach Justin Wilcox, and that's the case once again.
Cal is surrendering just 191 passing yards per game and ranks second in Passing Success Rate allowed.
FIU transfer Hezekiah Masses has led the way in the secondary with nine pass breakups and four of the team's six interceptions, putting himself on track to earn All-ACC honors.
Junior Cade Uluave may be joining him.
Uluave already has a career-high 81 tackles (leads the ACC) after recording 19 last week, the most by a Cal player in six years. He also ranks second in the ACC with 10.5 tackles for loss to go along with three sacks and three passes defended.
Virginia vs Cal Pick, Betting Analysis
In this matchup, Virginia has an advantage in Havoc and Havoc allowed. However, that was also the case in each of its past two games when it failed to cover.
Now, the Cavaliers travel west for the fourth-longest regular-season trip in program history. Last season, road teams traveling across multiple time zones covered at just a 45% clip.
Cal was on the wrong side of this trend last week, probably with a bad beat as well, losing by seven in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog.
However, the Golden Bears were also a heavy underdog when Miami came to Berkeley last season. It took a historic comeback led by No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward for Cal to not pull off an outright win in a game it easily covered.
In that game, Cal's pass defense frustrated Ward early, including a pick-six that helped it build a comfortable lead.
It may have similar success against Morris, who isn't playing his best football. He has four touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games and may be playing through a shoulder injury.
Meanwhile, Cal is 3-1 at home this season and has allowed 20 points just once. Getting over a field goal, I like the Golden Bears to cover back home, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.
Pick: Cal +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Virginia vs Cal Betting Trends
