Welcome to Week 2 of the NCAAF season. Ohio State vs. Texas is arguably the biggest game of the entire season, but first, I have four Week 2 college football picks and predictions for the afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET) window.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 2, here's the full piece. This is the first spots piece that I've completed this season.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 0-0
- Overall: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
Week 2 College Football Picks for Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kentucky +10.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Arizona +7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Syracuse -2.5 |
  | 3:45 p.m. | North Texas +6.5 |
Kentucky +10.5 vs. Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
I've had this spot circled since the summer, with the Will Stein era officially kicking off.
No, I'm not counting last week's rout of Youngstown State, but I at least came away impressed with the 'Cats in that victory over a top-10 FCS program, especially since they sat several starters who have a good shot of returning on Saturday:
- RT Malachi Wood (should play)
- CB Hasaan Sykes (should play)
- CB Terhyon Nichols (not on injury report)
Plus, linebacker Alex Afari Jr., who came back to Lexington following a brief stop with the Green Bay Packers, should get a more normal workload in the second level where his presence could really provide a boost.
New quarterback Kenny Minchey looked fine, but the game plan was very vanilla, with most of the damage coming after the catch on short passes. He misfired on a few of the rare deep balls he attempted, but it was overall a positive debut.
More importantly, Kentucky didn't have to show much, and I expect Stein to unleash his bag for such an important game for the program. I assume he worked all summer on this specific game plan against a staff he's very familiar with on the other side from his time at Oregon.
As a result, he should have a prime opportunity to catch Alabama off guard early in this game with plenty of new packages and wrinkles.
It also helps to have a very stout offensive line that this staff clearly prioritized when building the roster. It's the strongest position unit on the team, which is always a nice place to start.
Alabama did look great in its home opener against East Carolina, but that came at home against a very down Pirates squad that not only lost a ton from last year's roster (in addition to both coordinators), but also had some key injuries.
It's an ECU team that the market hated this summer and is betting against once again this week at home vs. App State, so I'd tap the brakes a bit on the Bama love.
This is still a first-year starter making his first road start against an SEC opponent with a much-maligned offensive line that will actually get a real test this week and will likely have to do so without its best player up front in Michael Carroll (doubtful).
You can also juice up the home-field in Lexington this weekend in what should be one of its best crowds in quite some time. I just wanted 10 or above in this spot and got it, so I'm in. Go 'Cats.
Kentucky vs. Alabama Trend
During his tenure in Tuscaloosa, head coach Kalen DeBoer has been a cash cow at home (10-3 ATS), but he's just 4-8-2 ATS in road/neutral site bouts. That includes a 1-5 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite with four outright losses in those six contests.
Over the past four seasons, Alabama has really struggled in true road games as the least profitable team (7-15 ATS) over that stretch.
Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (Play to +10)
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Arizona +7.5 at BYU
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
There's not much you can take from last week for either team, with both handling their business against FCS foes, although BYU had a much easier opponent in Utah Tech.
Although, BYU did lose a starting safety to injury, which could matter a bit against the very experienced Noah Fifita.
Coming into the season, the biggest question surrounding this Arizona team was in the secondary following the loss of five players to the NFL.
It remains to be seen if they can avoid too steep a drop-off with the portal acquisitions they brought in, but they should be OK in this particular matchup, as BYU's biggest primary weakness lies at wide receiver following the graduation of Chase Roberts and dismissal of Parker Kingston.
It's an underwhelming group (even with true freshman Legend Glasker flashing in his debut last week) that I don't believe can fully exploit the potentially vulnerable Arizona back end.
In order to slow down this BYU offense in 2026, you need a stout front seven that can defend the run and cover tight ends. Arizona has that, especially with linebacker Max Harris expected back this week after getting an exemption to return.
For what it's worth, running back Ismail Mahdi should also play due to that same TRO, providing a nice spark in the backfield.
If two coin-flips had gone Arizona's way last season, it would have played in the Big 12 Championship instead of BYU. But the Cougars pulled off a miraculous double-overtime win in Tucson that I'm sure the Wildcats have had circled ever since.
Eventually, the BYU horseshoe run in recent seasons will end in terms of close game wins, fourth-down variance and turnover luck. And maybe it's this week against the revenge-minded Wildcats.
Bottom line: I was happy to take over a touchdown in a game where points may come at a premium (and it appears the market agrees with the total continuing to get bet down) in a favorable matchup for the Arizona defense.
For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.
Arizona vs. BYU Trend
Arizona head coach Brent Brennan has performed admirably as a road dog of more than a touchdown, with an ATS record of 25-14 (64.1%).
Pick: Arizona +7.5 (Play to +7)
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Syracuse -2.5 vs. Cal
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This isn't my favorite bet in the world, and I may end up coming back on Cal pregame or live (should be a back-and-forth affair) based on the availability report, but I had this circled as a target at under a field goal given the spot in addition to some injury concerns for the Bears.
Not only did the offensive line get a bit banged up last week, but quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele also seemed hampered in the second half of a very physical affair against UCLA.
There could be some after-effects this week in a tricky cross-country travel spot that a brand-new staff will have to navigate.
The new Cal defense also didn't show many signs of life, which was my biggest concern coming into the season. I also didn't fancy the offensive play-calling.
So, while I love JKS and his new weapons on the outside, there wasn't much else to get excited about.
Plus, the strength of this Syracuse defense (which should benefit from a very good coordinator hire in Vince Kehres) lies at cornerback with Chris Peal and Demetres Samuel Jr., which is critical in this particular matchup.
Additionally, we know how important Steve Angeli is at quarterback for Syracuse after seeing what that offense became following his injury last year.
With Angeli, the Orange went 3-1 while averaging 24.5 points per game. Without him, they went 0-8 and failed to reach 20 points in any of those contests (average of just 11.4).
While it's hard to take much from an FCS win in Week 1, Angeli should benefit from getting live reps following his injury. From what I saw last week, Syracuse should have no issues moving the ball on this porous stop unit.
Syracuse vs. Cal Trend
It's an insignificant sample size, but in case you're wondering, Cal has fared OK in these long ACC trips to the Eastern Time Zone so far.
The Bears have gone 4-3 ATS and easily could've covered in two of their three losses. Conversely, Stanford has gone just 2-5 ATS in such spots.
Pick: Syracuse -2.5
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North Texas +6.5 vs. UNLV
3:45 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This is a tough spot for the Rebels, who will play their third game already after a war with Memphis followed by a trip out to Hawaii in a game that ended super late on Saturday night.
I wasn't overly impressed with UNLV in either game, and it really benefited from some key Hawaii injuries last week.
The offensive line remains an absolute mess, and it's been all downhill since starting center Austin Boyd (the only returning starter up front who will miss a few more weeks) went down with an injury in the second half vs. Memphis.
Now, the Rebels have to head out on the road for a second straight game to face the Mean Green in excessive Texas heat.
Don't let the final score fool you last week. North Texas actually outgained Indiana in Bloomington last Saturday.
The Mean Green held up much better than I had anticipated in the trenches, holding the IU backs to just 91 yards on 29 carries (3.14).
It looks like they did a tremendous job in their portal evaluations in rebuilding a team from almost scratch after the mass exodus to Oklahoma State.
The offensive line also kept Tayven Jackson very clean (lots of short passes helped, no doubt, but only one sack allowed on 28 dropbacks) against a ferocious Hoosier front.
While the O-line still doesn't profile as a plus unit, it performed better than I had expected, especially in Week 1 on the road against the toughest test they'll face all year by far.
I also expect to see even more wrinkles on offense than we saw last week, which had some Texas flavor following head coach Neal Brown's one-year stop in Austin.
The special teams have major issues, and the cornerback room is very thin, as starter Chase Canada will miss some time after suffering an injury last week. He's the third corner to go down since camp, so that position group is getting dicey.
But I'll pay to make Jackson Arnold beat me through the air.
North Texas vs. UNLV Trend
Neal Brown usually has his teams ahead of the curve in the month of September, where he has gone 22-13 ATS (62.9%) with an average cover margin of 4.45 points per game.
That includes an 11-6 ATS mark as an underdog with an impressive average cover margin of nearly a touchdown.
Pick: North Texas +6.5 (Play to +3.5)
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