Week 3 of the college football season gets going with my two top NCAAF predictions for the noon ET slate, including two underdogs that are expected to cover large spreads.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 3, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 4-3 (57.1%)
- Overall: 173-126-2 (57.9%)
Week 3 College Football Picks, Predictions for Noon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Northwestern +28 |
  | 12 p.m. | Temple +24.5 |
Northwestern +28 vs. Oregon
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Nobody has looked better to start the year than the Ducks, who I had major questions (relative to market) about coming into the season.
I've certainly upgraded Oregon quite a bit after two purely dominant performances, but I still can't get to this number even after downgrading Northwestern following a poor showing at Tulane in Week 1, where new quarterback Preston Stone looked awful.
Although, losing the turnover battle 5-0 certainly didn't help matters.
It's also worth noting that Oregon has played two home games against an FCS opponent and an Oklahoma State that looks like it could be in the running for the worst P4 team once again.
With Penn State on deck and knowing the Nittany Lions are on a bye week, the Oregon staff might elect not to show as much on film here and pull their starters (or rest a few that are dealing with injuries) a bit earlier than normal with a big lead (but the backup quarterback situation is still pretty solid).
The Ducks also could get caught peeking ahead a bit to that top-10 showdown, and they could come out a bit sleepy for an 11 a.m. local kick (8 a.m. PT) on the lake.
From a matchup perspective, the athletic and talent gap between these two teams is drastic. That will be evident from the opening kick, but that's also why we are catching four touchdowns here.
Northwestern head coach David Braun has already hinted at slowing this game down offensively, and Northwestern's defense will, in all likelihood, sell out to prevent explosive plays as usual. Both help a large underdog in theory.
Northwestern caught right around this price last year at home against Ohio State in a game it covered, 31-7. Oregon is likely close to the top of many power ratings as of this moment, but it's not in the same neighborhood as that Ohio State team to me (at least not yet).
Plus, I still need to see more from quarterback Dante Moore against real competition.
I do worry about the Northwestern receiving corps getting any separation and potential Stone turnovers. The speed on the back end also isn't ideal, and leading rusher Cam Porter is out for the season with an injury.
Regardless, I have to play the spot at this number, but I do need four touchdowns.
Notable Nugget
Northwestern alum Darren Rovell called me after seeing this bet get logged on the Action App. He yelled about how nobody can possibly bet the Wildcats here. That's as good an endorsement for the home pup as I can offer.
Pick: Northwestern +28 or Better
Temple +24.5 vs. Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
This is likely the best (and most obvious) situational spot on the board.
Following a marquee win over Michigan, Oklahoma will head to the City of Brotherly Love for a noon kick in a likely muted atmosphere against a significantly inferior opponent, with a highly anticipated matchup against Auburn on deck in Jackson Arnold's return to Norman.
It would not surprise me if the Sooners come out extremely lethargic in this clear sandwich spot.
I do believe the surface spot has mainly been accounted for by the market, but there could be a few other factors working in Temple's favor.
That Auburn game marks the first of eight SEC matchups against currently ranked teams. That's an absolutely gauntlet.
So, what does that mean?
Well, I imagine you don't want to show anything more than you need to, but, more importantly, you are going to need as much health as possible to get through that brutal slate in order to stay in the discussion for the College Football Playoff.
So, what does that mean for this game? I'm assuming you don't want to run John Mateer as frequently. Oklahoma also may pull its starters a bit earlier than usual with a big lead.
And if it does, it's possible it goes to third-string quarterback Whitt Newbauer (a Mercer transfer) instead of Michael Hawkins, who head coach Brett Venables said he doesn't want to use for a few series here or there in order to preserve his redshirt.
Additionally, I would assume Oklahoma wants to work on its standard running game, which remains a major work in progress with the Sooner running backs averaging just 2.83 yards per attempt through two games.
From a Temple standpoint, the Owls look vastly improved under new head coach K.C. Keeler, who I personally love as a head coach. He's certainly a massive upgrade over the previous two head coaches in North Philly.
Quarterback Evan Simon has looked great through two starts with a 77% completion percentage and nine touchdowns to no interceptions.
Now, that could just purely speak to the level of competition — UMass and Howard — but they did at least take care of business in convincing fashion.
I assume the Owls will grind this one down with a heavy dose of running back Jay Ducker and a short passing attack in order to shorten this game. That would be a welcome approach for a large home pup catching over three touchdowns.
Lastly, this is an important game for the Temple program to build some momentum with a respectable showing, which is why Keeler has made a few extra media appearances this week.
Many of the Owls players who were embarrassed in last year's 51-3 loss in Norman (lost turnover battle 6-0) have also talked at length about having this one circled. They should come out with a max effort.
Maybe Oklahoma comes out with full focus and keeps its foot on the gas longer than I anticipate while using Mateer's legs optimally. And maybe Temple really isn't that improved after just beating up on two terrible teams.
It's certainly possible, but I'll pay to find out.
Pick: Temple +24.5 (Play to +24)
Note: I'd look for live at this point if the line doesn't come back up to 24.
