We're officially into Week 4 of the college football season, and I'll start with my two top NCAAF predictions for the noon ET slate, including a Big Ten duel between Wisconsin and Maryland.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 4, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 9-7 (56.25%)
- Overall: 178-130-2 (57.8%)
Week 4 College Football Picks, Predictions for Noon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Miami (OH) +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Wisconsin -9 |
Miami (OH) +3.5 vs. UNLV
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This was the first bet I placed this week, as I've been itching to fade the undefeated Rebels.
When it comes to 3-0 resumes, UNLV has one of the worst you'll see with wins over Idaho State (by seven as a 30-point favorite), a dreadful Sam Houston team and the corpse of UCLA by seven — which looks even worse after what New Mexico did to the Bruins, who actually outperformed UNLV (which could easily be 1-2 or 2-1 statistically).
Conversely, Miami (OH) enters this nonconference clash at 0-2, but both losses came against Big Ten teams on the road.
From a strength of schedule perspective, Miami ranks in the top 10 nationally, while UNLV ranks outside the top 175, including FCS teams. That's an enormous discrepancy.
I expected the rebuilt Miami offense to struggle early in the season, but it actually showed more progress sooner than I expected at Rutgers.
Don't let the 45-17 final score fool you; that game was pretty competitive. Rutgers finished with only 50 more net yards and actually lost the yards-per-play battle, 8.4-5.5.
Anthony Colandrea has played very well at quarterback for the Rebels, but again, keep in mind the level of competition. He has a great deep ball but can struggle in the intermediary range, which is where the Miami (OH) defense will force opposing signal-callers to work by design.
To wit, in 2024, Colandrea finished with 11 Big-Time Throws to two Turnover-Worthy Plays on his deep balls, but that ratio plummeted to 1:10 in the short to intermediary range.
Expect the RedHawks to force a few takeaways in this one.
Additionally, this is a weird spot for the Rebels, who have to travel west to Oxford for a noon local kick (9 a.m. body clock) coming off a bye with another bye on deck prior to the start of league play. I could see a flat effort.
On the other side, Miami (OH) — which is also off a bye — should come in focused for its home opener in search of its first win of the season.
Lastly, UNLV will likely shoot itself in the foot too often, as the Rebels come into this game averaging 111 penalty yards per game (135th nationally). They will also likely lose the field-position battle against an elite special teams unit.
Notable Nugget
Miami head coach Chuck Martin is 42-29-1 ATS (59.2%) as an underdog, including 24-15-1 (61.5%) as a single-digit pup with an average cover margin north of four points.
Projection: Miami (OH) +0.3
Pick: Miami (OH) +3 or Better
Wisconsin -9 vs. Maryland
12 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I'm assuming Billy Edwards returns at quarterback on Saturday for the narrative revenge game against his former team. That's certainly not a guarantee, but I'm hearing positive progress reports.
I might buy out of some of my Wisconsin positions if Edwards can't go on Saturday. That said, his familiarity with Maryland's defense can help with prep regardless of whether he plays.
The offensive line is also in much better shape after getting left tackle Davis Heinzen out of the lineup in addition to seeing the return of senior center Jake Renfro last week.
I'm not only looking to buy the dip on Wisconsin after it got waxed (as expected) with a backup quarterback in Tuscaloosa, but I'm also itching to fade a Maryland team that hasn't played a soul to date.
The Terps' strength of schedule ranks outside of the top 200 nationally, with three home games against NIU, FAU and Towson, with the two contests against FBS opponents being closer than the final score indicates.
A +6 turnover margin against the Owls certainly helped.
This will also mark the first road start for true freshman quarterback Malik Washington.
He's played well so far against subpar competition, but we've seen countless inexperienced quarterbacks struggle in this spot already this season.
This will serve as a significantly stiffer test and environment, especially considering he won't have any help from a nonexistent rushing attack that ranks 129th nationally in EPA per Rush (just 3.5 yards per carry) despite facing a hilariously easy schedule of opponents.
I expect plenty of third-and-longs against one of the most improved pass rushes in the country.
That spells trouble for an offense that has converted less than a third of its third-down attempts (111th nationally) against a bunch of lower-level competition, especially considering Washington's numbers have dropped precipitously under pressure (6-for-18 passing).
The offensive line will also still be a major deficiency during league play.
Notable Nugget
Mike Locksley has consistently fallen flat as a road underdog, with an ATS record of just 12-22 (35.3%), failing to cover by an average of five points per game.
Among all active FBS coaches, only Rich Rodriguez and Clay Helton have been less profitable in that spot.
Projection: Wisconsin -12
Pick: Wisconsin -10 or Better
