College Football Odds, Pick for West Virginia vs Baylor: Expect a Blowout?
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: West Virginia’s CJ Donaldson.
West Virginia vs Baylor Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
Let's look at the college football odds for West Virginia vs. Baylor and make a pick for Saturday's college football showdown.
Neal Brown entered the season on the hottest seat in the country, but after an opening-week loss to Penn State, West Virginia rattled off four straight wins and has a chance to finish 8-4.
Meanwhile, Baylor coach Dave Aranda has replaced Brown on the hot seat with a dreadful season in Waco. After a terrific 12-2 campaign in 2021, the Bears fell to 6-7 in 2022 and have slipped to the bottom of the Big 12 standings this season at 3-8.
Aranda might be coaching for his job Saturday, but will that motivation be enough to overcome upset a West Virginia team that has been exceeding expectations all season?
West Virginia’s offensive game plan is simple — run the ball. The Mountaineers have the sixth-highest rushing rate in the country and rank 27th in Success Rate. Their 232.9 rushing yards per game are fifth in the nation.
This RPO attack has thrived with the dual-threat ability of quarterback Garrett Greene, who's averaging nearly 200 yards per game passing and has thrown for 13 touchdowns. He also adds 60.5 rushing yards per game on the ground and has rushed for 11 scores.
Greene is joined in the backfield by the two-headed monster of CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White. Donaldson averages more than 70 yards per game and has scored 11 touchdowns, but White, a freshman, is the home-run hitter, averaging 8.2 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Mountaineers’ strength is the secondary.
Cornerbacks Beanie Bishop and Malachi Ruffin are fantastic on the back end, and teams are completing less than 50% of their passes when throwing at the two corners. Also, Bishop leads the country with 14 passes broken up.
Baylor’s offense has struggled all season, although injuries have played a role. Quarterback Blake Shapen missed three games earlier in the year and won't play Saturday after suffering a head injury.
Sophomore Sawyer Robertson will likely start, but RJ Martinez could also see some time.
The inability to pass will be a problem for a Bears offense that hasn't been able to do anything on the ground. Baylor has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry this season, the lowest mark in the Big 12. The Bears have managed to eclipse 100 yards rushing as a team in just three of their eight conference games.
Given his background, you'd expect an Aranda-coached team to have a strong defense, but that's not the case. Baylor ranks 117th in the country in Defensive Success Rate and has been one of the worst teams in the nation at preventing explosives.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Baylor match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 104 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 106 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 121 |
Baylor Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 107 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 116 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 79 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 116 |
| PFF Coverage | 101 | 109 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 50 | 67 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 77 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (96) | 26.3 (53) |
| Rush Rate | 63.8% (6) | 47.1% (114) |
West Virginia vs Baylor
Betting Pick & Prediction
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This has been a great season for West Virginia, and I expect it to finish strong against a Baylor team that has lost four straight and likely can't wait for the season to end.
I don’t expect Baylor to get many stops, as the Bears' defense has allowed teams to move the ball at will, both through the air and on the ground.
West Virginia’s rushing attack has been both efficient and explosive. Donaldson and White should be able to get whatever they want in this one. Donaldson has been the lead back all season and has scored a touchdown in all but one game this season.
With Donaldson nursing an injury last week, White received the majority of the carries and set a career-high with 204 yards on 21 carries (9.7 YPC).
White leads the Big 12 with an average of 8.2 yards per carry, and 24 of his 80 carries have gone for at least 10 yards. Both Donaldson and White have a knack for shaking off defenders and picking up yards after contact.
Additionally, Greene has forced more missed tackles than any QB in the Big 12.
Against a Baylor defense that ranks 116th in the country in tackling and is allowing 4.9 yards per carry, the Mountaineers should run all over the field. Without Shapen, Baylor is one-dimensional, and the Bears haven't run the ball well all season.
The Mountaineers have the edge in just about every aspect of this game. Meanwhile, the Bears are ready to hibernate for the winter.
Pick: West Virginia -9.5 (Play to -10)
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