The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls called it a toss-up and the live midterm results are still unsettled, with Polymarket no longer offering a Peltola Yes while Kalshi prices the Democrat at 99.3¢ and the Republican at 0.8¢.
As of November 11 at 10:34 p.m. ET, AP's count showed Mary Peltola with 121,487 votes (48.9%) and Dan Sullivan with 117,512 (47.3%) with an estimated 86% of votes counted, and AP has not called the race, so those numbers may have changed since.
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a close finish, and Friday's count and the November 18 ranked-choice tabulation are the next tests.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges, with Polymarket's Peltola Yes off the board.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (1¢) | $9,140.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (99.3¢) | $100.65 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (0.8¢) | $11,687.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Right now, you can use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and unless one candidate tops 50% of first-choice votes, the race cannot be formally decided until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
Mary Peltola (YES unavailable)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board no longer offers a Peltola Yes. The button is greyed out, the price shows a dash, and the chart's last reading for her was 99%.
That leaves no Peltola pick to list on Polymarket this round, and no return figure to quote for her side on that exchange.
Polymarket's tracker shows 81% counted, with Peltola at 121,489 votes (48.6%) and Sullivan at 117,513 (47.0%), and it describes her as leading by 3.9K votes.
Dan Sullivan (YES 1¢ / NO not quoted)
Sullivan is the only candidate Polymarket still quotes a Yes on, at 1¢, a 1% chance, and a $100 ticket would win $9,140.00.
The Hill reported that the latest batch showed the senator gaining modestly in the conservative-leaning Mat-Su region, even as Peltola's campaign said tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots from Anchorage and rural Alaska remain uncounted.
His route runs through the ranked-choice tabulation, where ballots from Gerald Heikes, at 5,426 first-choice votes in AP's November 11 count, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., at 4,100, would be redistributed to second choices.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
Kalshi's tracker shows 86.2% of votes counted with the Democrat at 121,487 and the Republican at 117,512, and volume has reached $48,920,544.
Kalshi's rules govern exactly when the market settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is expected November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 99.3¢ / NO 0.8¢, +0.4 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 99.3¢, a 99.3% chance, with the displayed chance at 99.3% and up 0.4, and a $100 ticket pays $100.65.
With Polymarket's Peltola Yes off the board, Kalshi is now the only one of the two exchanges quoting a Yes on her side, and the payout is a thin sliver above the stake.
Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, said the outstanding early and absentee ballots from Anchorage and rural Alaska will break for Peltola, a claim The Hill carried alongside its report of the senator's modest gains.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 0.8¢ / NO 99.3¢, -0.4 pts)
The Republican contract costs 0.8¢ for Yes, though Kalshi's displayed chance reads 0.7%, down 0.4, and a $100 ticket shows 1% odds and an $11,687.50 payout.
The courtroom produced a setback for Peltola on Wednesday. An Anchorage Superior Court judge denied her campaign's request for records identifying rejected absentee ballots, and the Sullivan campaign had been allowed to join the case.
AP reported that Alaska has no process for voters to fix problems on absentee ballots that cause them to be rejected, so the rejection records at the center of the case bear on how many ballots ultimately count.
Similarly to Polymarket, you can sign up with the Kalshi promo code to claim a trading bonus.
Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION55 when signing up and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as the Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Meet Friday's Count
The exchanges no longer line up side by side. Kalshi quotes the Democratic Party at YES 99.3¢, while Polymarket has no Peltola Yes to show, and Sullivan is at YES 1¢ on Polymarket and the Republican Party at YES 0.8¢ on Kalshi.
Kalshi's book is tight, with the Democratic YES 99.3¢ and NO 0.8¢ adding up to 100.1¢, and a $100 Peltola ticket there pays $100.65.
The long shot pays more on Kalshi. A $100 ticket on Sullivan returns $11,687.50 on Kalshi against $9,140.00 on Polymarket.
The movement figures are thin on Polymarket, which shows no change for either candidate, while Kalshi's displayed chance is up 0.4 for the Democrat and down 0.4 for the Republican.
The trackers also differ on how much is counted, with Polymarket at 81% and Kalshi at 86.2%, in line with AP's estimate of 86% as of November 11 at 10:34 p.m. ET.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
The biggest story is on the exchanges themselves. Polymarket has stopped quoting a Peltola Yes, while Kalshi's Democratic chance shows up 0.4 at 99.3%, so the live midterm results are now being priced almost entirely at the extreme.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up two to three points on first-choice votes, and the count has stayed close. The Hill reported that Wednesday night's batch trimmed her lead, with the senator gaining modestly in the Mat-Su region.
Peltola's campaign says tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots from Anchorage and rural Alaska remain, and ICT reported that neither candidate has cleared the 50% needed to avoid ranked-choice tabulation. ICT also reported that a New York Times analysis found Peltola likely would earn more votes than Sullivan once second choices are redistributed.
The legal side added a Wednesday ruling against Peltola's campaign, which sought rejected-absentee-ballot records, and a decision that let the Sullivan campaign intervene. Her campaign's attorney had said there was no reason to believe irregularities occurred in rejecting or accepting absentee ballots.
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls get their next real check Friday. The Division of Elections has scheduled counts for Tuesday and Friday this week with possible additional days, November 18 is the last day for ballots to arrive and the date of ranked-choice tabulation, and certification is expected November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (1¢) | $9,140.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (99.3¢) | $100.65 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (0.8¢) | $11,687.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a race where the favorite's price has run out of room, with the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board no longer quoting a Peltola Yes and Kalshi paying just $100.65 on a $100 ticket. Kalshi still quotes both sides, AP has not called the race, and ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18.
Friday's count is the likeliest trigger for any repricing, since it is the next real test for the Peltola vs Sullivan polls, and the November 18 tabulation can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up about 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey. The count has stayed close since, and AP has not called the race.
How do the Peltola vs Sullivan polls compare with the actual count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a close finish, and the count has stayed close. Friday's update and the November 18 ranked-choice tabulation are the next tests.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board no longer offers a Peltola Yes, with the button greyed out and no price shown, and Dan Sullivan is quoted at 1¢. Polymarket's tracker shows 81% counted, with Peltola at 121,489 votes and Sullivan at 117,513.
Why can't I buy Peltola Yes on Polymarket?
The Peltola Yes button on Polymarket is greyed out and shows a dash instead of a price, and the page does not say why. Kalshi is now the only one of the two exchanges quoting a Yes on Peltola's side, at 99.3¢.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi carry live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, remember that every update before November 18 shows first-choice votes only.
What did AP's count show for the Alaska Senate race?
As of November 11 at 10:34 p.m. ET, AP's count showed Mary Peltola with 121,487 votes, Dan Sullivan with 117,512, Gerald Heikes with 5,426 and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with 4,100, with an estimated 86% of votes counted. AP has not called the race and the count is not finished.
What happened in the Peltola campaign's court case?
An Anchorage Superior Court judge ruled Wednesday against the Peltola campaign's request for records identifying rejected absentee ballots, and the Sullivan campaign was allowed to join the case. Alaska has no process for voters to fix problems on absentee ballots that cause them to be rejected, according to AP.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
The Division of Elections has scheduled counts for Tuesday and Friday this week, with possible additional days, and November 18 is the last day for ballots to arrive and the date of ranked-choice tabulation. Certification is expected November 25, and until then the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name and no longer quotes a Peltola Yes, while Kalshi resolves by winning party and still quotes both sides. Sullivan is at 1¢ on Polymarket against 0.8¢ for the Republican Party on Kalshi.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want where a price is quoted, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
