Johnny Depp's big studio comeback "Ebenezer"opens Friday, and prediction markets already have a view on what critics will say, with a sharp focus on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer. Ti West's gothic take on "A Christmas Carol" is trading on Kalshi and Polymarket as a ladder of Rotten Tomatoes score contracts, with the 50% line landing between 40 and 45.
That would leave "Ebenezer" well short of the 60% Fresh mark and a long way from the mid-90s scores West posted with "X" and "Pearl."
'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score Kalshi odds: Top trading contracts
Kalshi's "Ebenezer" market is a ladder of "Above X" contracts tied to the film's Tomatometer, the critics' score on Rotten Tomatoes. Each contract trades between 1 cent and 99 cents, which maps directly to implied probability, and a Yes share pays $1 if the score finishes above that number and nothing if it does not. Check Kalshi's rules for the exact time the score is read before trading.
The market has drawn $1,141,206 in volume. The 50% line sits at roughly 40 to 41, so traders treat a score in the low 40s as the middle of the range. The 75% and 25% marks fall near 32 and 50, an 18-point spread that shows how unsettled the market is with reviews still to come.
Above 40 (52%, Yes 52 cents, No 50 cents, up 2 points)
This is the pivot strike. At 52 cents, traders see a coin flip on whether "Ebenezer" clears a 40% Tomatometer, a score that is already Rotten by Rotten Tomatoes' standards.
The neighboring strikes are noisy. Above 42 trades at 55%, down 11 points but still higher than Above 40, which looks like a thin order book rather than a real signal.
Above 50 (24%, Yes 24 cents, No 79 cents, down 18 points)
The market gives "Ebenezer" roughly a 1-in-4 shot at a score of 51 or better, and that number fell 18 points. First social reactions were split, with some praising Depp and West's gothic visuals and others calling the film forgettable.
Social reactions are not reviews, but they match a market that is sliding down the ladder.
Above 60 (11%, Yes 12 cents, No 90 cents, down 9 points)
Rotten Tomatoes labels a film Fresh at 60% or higher, so this strike is the line between a respectable headline and a bad one. A score of exactly 60 would not count here, since the contract needs a number above it.
West's recent scores range from 94% for "X" to 75% for "MaXXXine," and "Ebenezer" is a bigger, more mainstream swing than either. At 11%, the market is not betting on a return to that top tier.
Above 30 (85%, Yes 84 cents, No 17 cents, up 17 points)
This is the floor. The 17-point jump shows traders getting more comfortable that "Ebenezer" avoids a true critical disaster, even as they move away from the high-score outcomes.
- Above 20 (96%, up 7 points): Close to a lock. Even West's lowest-rated film, "Autoerotic," sits at 30% on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Above 25 (93%, up 19 points): The biggest gain on the board, and a sign that money is flowing toward a mediocre-but-not-disastrous outcome.
- Above 32, Above 35 and Above 37 (72%, 62% and 58%): Above 35 is up four points and Above 37 is down three points. Above 32 shows no movement.
- Above 45 and Above 47 (both 35%, down 7 and 18 points): The two strikes price identically, another sign of thin trading at the margins.
- Above 55 and Above 65 (15% and 6%, down 14 and 15 points): Hopes for a strong Fresh score have faded fast.
- Above 70, Above 75 and Above 80 (2%, 2% and 1%): The market treats a 70-plus Tomatometer as a long shot.
Here is what a $100 Yes position on each of the six shared thresholds would earn on Kalshi if it hits, based on the current Yes prices. Figures do not include fees.
| Contract | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 20 | 'Ebenezer' | Above 20 Yes (97¢) | $3.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 30 | 'Ebenezer' | Above 30 Yes (84¢) | $19.05 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 40 | 'Ebenezer' | Above 40 Yes (52¢) | $92.31 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 50 | 'Ebenezer' | Above 50 Yes (24¢) | $316.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 60 | 'Ebenezer' | Above 60 Yes (12¢) | $733.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Above 70 | 'Ebenezer' | Above 70 Yes (2¢) | $4,900.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score Polymarket Odds: Top trading contracts
Polymarket asks the same question with "X+" contracts in 10-point steps from 20+ to 70+. Prices work the same way: 1 cent to 99 cents maps to implied probability, and a Yes share pays $1 if the Tomatometer meets the threshold. The board is dated Nov. 16, three days after the film opens, and the "+" wording suggests the threshold itself counts, so confirm that in the rules.
Volume is just $19,635, a fraction of Kalshi's market. The 50% line sits near 44 to 45, about four points higher than on Kalshi.
40+ (62%, Yes 87 cents, No 50 cents, down 9 points)
Polymarket traders give "Ebenezer" a 62% chance of reaching 40 or better, 10 points above Kalshi's price for a similar line. The gap between the 62% headline and the 87-cent Yes price is a reminder of how thin this book is.
50+ (36%, Yes 54 cents, No 83 cents, up 2 points)
This is the strike closest to the market's pivot. At 36%, a 50 or better is a minority outcome, but it is priced well above Kalshi's 24% for Above 50.
60+ (16%, Yes 17 cents, No 86 cents, down 8 points)
The Fresh line is a longer shot, though Polymarket prices it five points above Kalshi. The price dropped eight points as the board adjusted to mixed early buzz.
70+ (9%, Yes 11 cents, No 94 cents, down 11 points)
The 70+ strike has the most volume on the board at $6,369, even with a 9% price. That suggests some traders are hunting a big payout on a surprise rave, though the price fell 11 points.
- 20+ (95%, up 2 points): Nearly certain, in line with Kalshi's 96% for Above 20.
- 30+ (82%, up 2 points): Only $226 in volume, and a 94-cent Yes price against an 82% headline points to a thin market.
Here is what a $100 Yes position on each of the six shared thresholds would earn on Polymarket if it hits, based on the current Yes prices. Figures do not include fees.
| Contract | Pick | Profit on $100 | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20+ | 'Ebenezer' | 20+ Yes (96¢) | $4.17 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 30+ | 'Ebenezer' | 30+ Yes (94¢) | $6.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 40+ | 'Ebenezer' | 40+ Yes (87¢) | $14.94 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 50+ | 'Ebenezer' | 50+ Yes (54¢) | $85.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 60+ | 'Ebenezer' | 60+ Yes (17¢) | $488.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| 70+ | 'Ebenezer' | 70+ Yes (11¢) | $809.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on the 'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score
Here is how the two boards line up on the six thresholds they share:
| Threshold | Kalshi (Above X) | Polymarket (X+) | Gap (Polymarket minus Kalshi) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 96% | 95% | -1 point |
| 30 | 85% | 82% | -3 points |
| 40 | 52% | 62% | +10 points |
| 50 | 24% | 36% | +12 points |
| 60 | 11% | 16% | +5 points |
| 70 | 2% | 9% | +7 points |
The two exchanges agree on the floor. Both put a score above 20 at 95% or better, and both treat the Fresh line as a long shot, with Kalshi at 11% and Polymarket at 16%. Polymarket is richer in the far tail, pricing 70+ at 9% against 2% for Above 70.
They split in the middle. Polymarket has 40+ at 62% against Kalshi's 52%, and 50+ at 36% against 24%. That puts the market-implied score near 44 to 45 on Polymarket and 40 to 41 on Kalshi.
Liquidity explains much of it. Kalshi's volume is roughly 58 times Polymarket's, so its prices carry more weight. "Above X" and "X+" wording can differ by a point at the boundary, but that does not explain gaps of 10 to 12 points. Treat the spread as a difference in trader base and depth, not a clean arbitrage.
'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score price analysis: Market price influencers
The biggest Kalshi moves tell a clear story. Above 47 and Above 50 each fell 18 points, Above 65 dropped 15 and Above 55 dropped 14, while Above 25 and Above 30 gained 19 and 17. Traders are pulling money out of the high-score outcomes and moving it toward a middling result.
That lines up with first reactions that split on the film while converging on Depp's performance. The market is also pricing in West's uneven recent record, from 94% for "X" to 75% for "MaXXXine," and a gothic take on a story audiences know by heart.
Rotten Tomatoes listed no reviews for "Ebenezer" when we checked, so everything here is a forecast. Early scores built on a small number of reviews can swing hard, and the film's reported test-screening score of 80 came from audiences, not critics, so it says little about the Tomatometer. Watch the first wave of reviews and the review count, because a few dozen reviews can move several strikes at once.
How to trade 'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score: Final Thoughts
The "Ebenezer" board is a market betting on a middling Tomatometer. Kalshi puts the 50% line near 40 to 41 and Polymarket near 44 to 45, and both agree that Fresh is a long shot at 11% to 16%.
The key variable is the first batch of reviews and how many land before the score settles. Until then, expect the ladder to keep shifting.
'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes Score FAQs
What are the 'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes score odds?
Kalshi puts the 50% line near a score of 40 to 41, while Polymarket puts it near 44 to 45. Both markets give "Ebenezer" a better than 80% chance of scoring above 30 and a low chance of reaching 60.
How do Rotten Tomatoes score markets work on Kalshi and Polymarket?
Each market is a ladder of threshold contracts, such as "Above 40" on Kalshi or "40+" on Polymarket. Contracts trade from 1 cent to 99 cents, and a Yes share pays $1 if the Tomatometer meets the threshold when the market resolves.
What is the Tomatometer?
The Tomatometer is the percentage of critic reviews on Rotten Tomatoes that are positive. It is separate from the Popcornmeter, which measures audience reactions, and these markets track the critics' score.
What is the chance 'Ebenezer' is rated Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes?
A film is Fresh at 60% or higher. Kalshi prices Above 60 at 11% and Polymarket prices 60+ at 16%, so traders see Fresh as a long shot.
Why can an early Rotten Tomatoes score move so much?
Early scores are built on a small number of reviews, so each new review can move the percentage several points. The score tends to settle as more critics weigh in.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket have different prices for 'Ebenezer'?
Kalshi has far more volume, about $1.14 million to Polymarket's roughly $19,600, and the two have different trader bases. Polymarket also shows wide gaps between its headline percentages and its Yes prices on some strikes, which points to thin order books.
When is 'Ebenezer' in theaters?
"Ebenezer" opens in wide release on Nov. 13. Polymarket's board is dated Nov. 16.
How do I trade 'Ebenezer' Rotten Tomatoes score contracts?
Sign up on Kalshi or Polymarket, pick the threshold you want and buy a Yes or No contract at its current price. Review each market's resolution rules first, since the wording and timing can differ.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
