The Kansas governor race 2026 has flipped on the prediction markets, with Kalshi pricing Cindy Holscher at 99.9¢ and Ty Masterson at just 0.3¢ nine days after the vote.
The Kansas governor election is still officially unresolved, with the Associated Press yet to call it, a statewide close-race audit under way and Masterson not yet conceding.
Masterson vs Holscher polls leaned Masterson's way through most of October, which makes the repricing a dramatic reversal.
- Polymarket quotes only Masterson, at 1¢, and offers no tradable Yes on Holscher, while Kalshi lists both candidates, with Holscher at 99.9¢ and Masterson at 0.3¢.
- Emerson's final survey had Masterson ahead 50-46, while the last Times/Siena poll had Holscher up a point.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas governor election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms as of Thursday, November 12, with the audit still in progress.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $10 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (1¢) | $914.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (99.9¢) | $10.01 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (0.3¢) | $3,333.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's contract is priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
The market settles to Yes if the Republican nominee wins the Kansas governor election, with the outcome sourced from government authorities and eligible for accelerated settlement once the network decision desks reach a consensus on a race call.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board quotes a price only for Masterson, and Holscher's line shows a dash with no tradable Yes, so there is no opposing Yes price to derive a No price from and none is shown below.
Ty Masterson (YES 1¢)
Masterson is the only name with a live price, and at 1¢ the board implies a 1% chance that he ends up winning.
Polymarket's own results banner shows 95% counted with Holscher ahead, 551,337 votes (50.3%) to 543,765 (49.7%), and labels the lead 7.5K votes.
The price spent most of the summer and fall between roughly 60% and 80% before collapsing to the floor in the first days of November.
Kansas Governor Race 2026 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists both candidates as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No tradable on each line, and the market has topped $4.5 million in volume.
The contract resolves by winning party, and every price is quoted to a tenth of a cent, which matters at these extremes.
Cindy Holscher (YES 99.9¢ / NO 0.4¢, -0.2 pts)
Kalshi's Chance display shows Holscher at 99.7%, down 0.2 points, while the YES button sits at 99.9¢, so the headline price follows the ticket and the movement follows the Chance figure.
She declared victory the morning after the vote, Gov. Laura Kelly has called her governor-elect, and Holscher has begun the transition process with Kelly's team.
As of 5:46 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 11, the Associated Press count showed Holscher at 50.3% (551,467 votes) and Masterson at 49.7% (543,903 votes) with an estimated 99% of votes counted, though AP had not called the race and the count can still change.
At 99.9¢ the upside is a rounding error, roughly $10.01 back on a $10 stake.
Ty Masterson (YES 0.3¢ / NO 99.8¢, +0.2 pts)
Masterson ticked up 0.2 points on Kalshi's Chance display to 0.3%, which reads as the market's small allowance for whatever the audit, the provisional ballots and a possible recount request could still change.
He has not conceded, saying after the first count that the margin was narrow enough for Kansas law to call for another look, and that he would let the audit process finish.
A source close to Masterson told reporters last Thursday that he does not plan to seek a recount or dispute a confirmed Holscher win, though that account comes from a single unnamed source.
Counties must finish certifying by Monday, November 16, and Masterson has until 5 p.m. on Tuesday, November 17 to request a recount. The state covers recount costs only when the margin is within half a percentage point, and Axios reported on Tuesday that Holscher's lead has been outside that line since the day after the election.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Governor Election
The two boards tell the same story, which is that the markets treat this race as all but settled. Polymarket has Masterson at YES 1¢ and Kalshi has him at YES 0.3¢, while Kalshi has Holscher at YES 99.9¢.
The gap on Masterson is under a cent and is probably a function of tick size, since Polymarket quotes whole cents and Kalshi quotes tenths.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is contract design. Polymarket offers a single Republican-wins contract with no tradable Yes on Holscher, while Kalshi quotes both candidates, each with a Yes and a No.
Kalshi's quotes also sum to a little over 100¢ on each candidate, with Holscher's YES 99.9¢ and NO 0.4¢ adding to 100.3¢, a spread of just a few tenths of a cent.
The Est. Return on $10 figures differ more than the prices alone would suggest, because Polymarket's comes from its trade ticket and Kalshi's is calculated from the quoted price, and thin books at these extremes can mean fills come in lower.
Kansas Governor Race 2026 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Kansas governor race 2026 was a very different market a few weeks ago. Multistate's tracker had Republicans at about 76% on both Polymarket and Kalshi in mid-October, and Kalshi's chart shows Masterson holding near 75% through late October before the price fell off a cliff around Election Day.
That pricing tracked the Masterson vs Holscher polls. Emerson's final survey, fielded October 26-28, had Masterson ahead 50-46, and PollCheck's average on October 27 had him at 48.4% to Holscher's 44.2%.
The late signals were mixed, though. The final Times/Siena poll gave Holscher a 1-point edge, a poll from Global Strategy Group, a Democratic firm working for Holscher's campaign, showed a 47-47 tie, and Emerson found early voters breaking for Holscher 65% to 35%.
What keeps Masterson above zero now is process, not polling. The secretary of state's office told Axios that roughly 28,000 provisional ballots were still outstanding as of November 10, counties are hand-counting ballots from 10% of precincts under the close-race audit, and the Kansas Republican Party has said the race is not over.
Sedgwick County's elections commissioner, by contrast, said she expects the leads in the statewide races to hold.
The next catalysts are the county canvasses, any audit discrepancies, the provisional ballot review, the 5 p.m. November 17 recount deadline and an eventual race call from the network decision desks, which would also feed Polymarket's accelerated settlement.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $10 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (1¢) | $914.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (99.9¢) | $10.01 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (0.3¢) | $3,333.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Governor Election on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
The Kansas governor race 2026 is now a one-sided market with one open question. Kalshi has Holscher at 99.9¢ and Masterson at 0.3¢, Polymarket lists Masterson at 1¢ with no tradable Yes on Holscher, and what stands between the boards and a settled race is the audit, the provisional ballots and the November 17 recount deadline.
The Masterson vs Holscher polls leaned the other way all fall, a reminder of how fast a thin-margin race can reprice once real votes are counted.
Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas governor race odds?
Kalshi has Cindy Holscher at 99.9 cents and Ty Masterson at 0.3 cents, while Polymarket quotes only Masterson, at 1 cent, and offers no tradable Yes on Holscher.
Has the Kansas governor election been called?
Not yet. As of 5:46 p.m. ET on November 11, the Associated Press had not called the race, with Holscher at 50.3% and Masterson at 49.7% and an estimated 99% of votes counted, and the count can still change. Holscher has declared victory, while Masterson has not conceded.
What did the final Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Emerson College's final survey, fielded October 26-28, had Masterson ahead 50-46. The last Times/Siena poll gave Holscher a 1-point edge, and a Global Strategy Group survey released by Holscher's campaign had the two tied at 47-47.
How did Masterson vs Holscher polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets followed the polling average, pricing Masterson near 76% in mid-October on both exchanges. The vote count then moved both boards to Holscher in the days after polls closed.
Can you trade Yes on Holscher on Polymarket?
No. Polymarket's board quotes only Masterson's Yes price, at 1 cent, and Holscher's line has no tradable Yes.
How does the Kansas close-race audit work?
A close-race audit is triggered when a statewide race is within 1% of the total votes cast. Counties hand-count ballots from 10% of precincts and compare the totals to the machine count. Counties must finish certifying by November 16, and a candidate can request a recount by 5 p.m. on November 17.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi settle the Kansas governor election market?
Polymarket's market settles to Yes if the Republican nominee wins, with outcomes sourced from government authorities and accelerated settlement possible on a consensus of network race calls. Kalshi's market resolves by winning party.
How do I trade the Kansas governor election odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before it settles.
