The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls called a toss-up and the live midterm results are still razor thin, with Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan by 637 votes while Polymarket has her at 98¢ and Kalshi at 96.9¢.
A New York Times analysis published Thursday found that voters who picked the second Dan Sullivan mostly ranked Peltola next, which cut against the ranked-choice case the Sullivan campaign has been making.
With roughly 60,000 mostly mail ballots still outstanding and no count update required before November 10, the Peltola vs Sullivan polls will be settled by ballots that have not been tallied yet.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both exchanges while Alaska waits on its next count.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (98¢) | $101.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (4¢) | $2,343.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (96.9¢) | $102.97 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (3.4¢) | $2,754.70 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share pays $1.00 if that candidate wins the Alaska Senate election and $0 if not.
The market is titled Alaska Senate Election Winner, and with neither candidate near 50% of first-choice votes, the race cannot be formally decided until the ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18.
Mary Peltola (YES 98¢ / NO 3¢, +3 pts)
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Peltola at 98¢, implying a 98% chance, and a $100 ticket at the 98¢ average price wins $101.00.
Polymarket's tracker still shows her ahead 102,962 votes (48.2%) to 102,325 (47.9%) with 70% counted, the same 637-vote margin as Wednesday, so the extra 3 points came from analysis rather than new ballots.
The move followed a New York Times analysis published Thursday that found ballots for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. leaning toward Peltola as a second choice.
Dan Sullivan (YES 4¢ / NO 97¢, -3 pts)
Sullivan is priced at 4¢, a 4% chance, and a $100 ticket at the 4¢ average price would win $2,343.00.
His campaign argues the outstanding ballots will not break as heavily for Peltola as her campaign claims, and it has circulated a memo projecting a ranked-choice win for the senator.
President Trump posted Thursday that the votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. should be given to the senator and that he should be declared the winner, though Alaska's rules move those ballots to each voter's next choice instead.
Kalshi Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as "Alaska Senate winner?" and resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable, so the board shows the full spread instead of a single implied number.
Kalshi's tracker shows 74.1% of votes counted with the Democrat ahead 102,962 to 102,325, and volume has climbed to $28,402,911, nearly double the $15.3 million traded by Wednesday.
Kalshi's rules govern exactly when the market settles, since Alaska's tabulation runs to November 18 and certification is targeted for November 25.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 96.9¢ / NO 3.2¢, +3.2 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic contract at 96.9¢, a 96.9% chance, up 3.2 points, and a $100 ticket shows 97% odds and a $102.97 payout.
The one-month chart shows the contract sitting near 75% through most of October before climbing to its current level after election night.
Alaska Survey Research pollster Ivan Moore, whose October ranked-choice polling had Peltola up 51-49 in the final round, says the outstanding votes favor her, while the Sullivan campaign says the opposite.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 3.4¢ / NO 96.9¢, -3.2 pts)
The Republican contract costs 3.4¢ for Yes, though Kalshi's displayed chance reads 3.1% and a $100 ticket shows 4%, so the 3.4¢ price is the actual cost to buy.
The Justice Department's appeal is pending, and the Alaska Beacon reported that it could be moot if Sullivan wins or if Peltola's margin exceeds the 3,600 votes for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a threshold her 637-vote lead has not cleared.
Alaska Public Media reported there is no sign that the Trump administration or Gov. Mike Dunleavy will drop the idea of blocking certification if Peltola stays ahead.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare as Peltola vs Sullivan Polls Give Way to the Count
The two boards agree on the favorite, with Polymarket a touch more bullish. Peltola sits at YES 98¢ on Polymarket and the Democratic Party at YES 96.9¢ on Kalshi, while Sullivan is at YES 4¢ and the Republican Party at YES 3.4¢.
The gap is mostly spread. Polymarket's Yes prices on the two candidates add up to 102¢, while Kalshi's YES 96.9¢ and YES 3.4¢ add up to 100.3¢, so Kalshi's tighter book explains most of the difference.
That spread shows up in the payouts, and Kalshi pays more on both sides. A $100 ticket on Peltola returns $102.97 on Kalshi against $101.00 on Polymarket, while a $100 ticket on Sullivan returns $2,754.70 against $2,343.00.
The trackers also disagree on how much is counted, with Polymarket at 70% and Kalshi at 74.1%, even though both show the same 637-vote margin. That gap reflects different estimates of the total vote, and neither has changed since Wednesday.
The movement figures are close but not identical. Polymarket shows Peltola up 3 and Sullivan down 3, while Kalshi shows 3.2 points in each direction on its displayed chance rather than the Yes price.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Live Midterm Results: Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved up again Thursday even though not a single new vote was counted, with the margin frozen at 637 since Wednesday. That makes this a repricing on analysis and politics, not on live midterm results.
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up two to three points in first-choice voting, and the count has her up 0.3, so traders have been waiting for evidence that the uncounted ballots will widen the gap. The Times analysis is the closest thing yet, because it found Sullivan Jr.'s voters leaning toward Peltola, undercutting the argument that his supporters would flow to the senator.
The same reporting says about 60,000 ballots are outstanding, most of them cast by mail, and that the Times left out roughly 10,000 hand-counted ballots from rural areas where Peltola has run strong. Her campaign says tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots will extend her lead.
The ranked-choice math is still not one-way. The Alaska Beacon's earlier cast-vote-record analysis found Republican Gerald Heikes's voters leaning toward the senator, and Heikes drew more first-choice votes than Sullivan Jr. did, which is why the remaining ballots still have to deliver.
Alaska Public Media noted that nobody knows exactly how many ballots remain or which way they lean. The legal and political noise is the other variable, with Trump's Thursday post and the pending appeal keeping a certification fight on the calendar.
The stakes have changed, too. Democrats have already won enough seats to take Senate control, according to AP reporting, so Alaska now decides the size of the majority, and a Peltola win would make her the first Democrat to win an Alaska Senate race since Mark Begich in 2008.
The calendar is the next catalyst. The state is not required to report more votes until November 10, with further updates on November 13 and November 18 and certification targeted for November 25.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (98¢) | $101.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (4¢) | $2,343.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party (Peltola) | YES (96.9¢) | $102.97 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party (Sullivan) | YES (3.4¢) | $2,754.70 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Alaska Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls and Midterm Results: Final Thoughts
This is a 637-vote race priced like a near lock, because the best new evidence, the Times analysis and the roughly 60,000 outstanding ballots, points toward Peltola. The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board and Kalshi sit about a point apart, so the exchanges agree on the read even though the count has not moved since Wednesday.
The November 10 count is the likeliest trigger for a repricing in either direction, since it is the first large batch of real ballots to test the Peltola vs Sullivan polls, and the November 18 tabulation can settle it.
Alaska Senate Race FAQs
What do the latest Alaska Senate race 2026 polls show?
The final Alaska Senate race 2026 polls had Peltola up about 2 to 3 points on first-choice votes, including a 48-46 New York Times/Siena survey. The count so far has her up 0.3 points, 48.2% to 47.9%, and it has not moved since Wednesday.
How do the Peltola vs Sullivan polls compare with the actual count?
The Peltola vs Sullivan polls pointed to a close race, and the count has matched that with a 637-vote first-choice gap. Alaska Survey Research's October ranked-choice polling had Peltola ahead 51-49 in the final round, and its pollster says the outstanding ballots favor her.
What does the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market show right now?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race board has Mary Peltola at 98¢ and Dan Sullivan at 4¢. Polymarket's tracker shows Peltola ahead 102,962 to 102,325 with 70% counted, a lead of 637 votes.
Where can I follow live midterm results for the Alaska Senate race?
The Alaska Division of Elections posts the unofficial count, and both Polymarket and Kalshi carry live trackers on their Alaska Senate boards. For live midterm results here, the state does not have to report more votes until November 10, though some places may report sooner.
When will the Alaska midterm results be final?
The state plans count updates on November 10, November 13 and November 18, with ranked-choice tabulation on November 18 and certification targeted for November 25. Until then, the midterm results are first-choice votes only.
How many ballots are left to count in Alaska?
Reporting on a New York Times analysis puts the total at about 60,000 ballots, most of them cast by mail, plus roughly 10,000 hand-counted ballots from rural areas. Nobody knows exactly how many remain or which way they lean.
How does ranked-choice voting affect the Alaska Senate race?
Neither candidate is near 50%, so Republican Gerald Heikes and independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. are eliminated and their ballots move to each voter's next choice. The Times found Sullivan Jr.'s voters leaned toward Peltola, while an earlier Alaska Beacon analysis found Heikes's voters leaning toward the senator.
Why did the Alaska Senate odds move on Thursday if no new votes were counted?
The count has been frozen at 637 votes since Wednesday, so prices moved on a New York Times analysis showing ballots for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. leaning toward Peltola and on the roughly 60,000 mostly mail ballots still to come. Polymarket and Kalshi each added about 3 points for Peltola.
How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on the Alaska Senate race?
Polymarket lists the two candidates by name, while Kalshi resolves by winning party. Peltola is at 98¢ on Polymarket versus 96.9¢ for the Democratic Party on Kalshi, and a $100 Peltola ticket pays $101.00 on Polymarket against $102.97 on Kalshi.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the side you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market before the race is decided.
