Best Luka Dončić Player Props | Lakers vs Warriors Prediction Markets & Picks (NBA Cup, Week 2)

The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on Friday's NBA Cup showdown at Chase Center, and this Lakers vs. Warriors prediction rounds up our best Luka Dončić player props.

• Los Angeles Lakers (4-1): Luka Dončić is off the injury report after sitting out Wednesday's win over the Clippers with back tightness, and his 36.0 points per game lead the NBA. Los Angeles sits fourth in the West, so his health shapes the whole NBA futures picture for the Lakers.
• Golden State Warriors (2-3): Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are out and Gui Santos is day to day on the latest NBA injury report. Stephen Curry is scoring 28.8 points per game, and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg has been vocal about guarding Dončić again.

Here is our full Luka Dončić player props table, sorted by category and then by price, so each safer line sits directly above its longer shot.

Every ticket comes from the live board at the best prediction markets, and you can compare it with the traditional NBA odds before you trade.

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Best Luka Dončić Player Props for Lakers vs Warriors

Every pick below is a real trade we would make on Polymarket, built around our best Luka Dončić player props for the NBA Cup rematch.

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One note before the tickets: Polymarket takes a small cut through fees and fills each order against live order book depth, so payouts are never clean share math. The returns below are what each ticket showed at the time of writing, and prices can move before tip-off.

Luka Dončić Points Prop Today – 35+ Points

Dončić leads the NBA at 36.0 points per game through four games and has cleared 35 twice, with 52 at Utah and 41 against Portland. His 23 against the Clippers came on 2-of-8 from three.

Last season he reached 35 in 30 of 64 games (47%) and in 10 of his last 20, so the 50¢ price sits a tick above his full-season rate and level with his finish. Golden State is also thin, with Butler, Moody and Porzingis out and Santos day to day with a knee issue.

The head-to-head is the honest counterweight. He has reached 35 in 8 of 25 career games against the Warriors (32%) and only once in four tries as a Laker, with 43 in last season's opener, and Lendeborg held him to 1-of-5 as his primary defender on opening night. At a 50¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 200 shares, each worth $1 if Dončić reaches 35 points.

• If Dončić scores 35 or more points: this ticket returns $193.28.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is a little under a 2x return on a line that sits below his 36.0 season average.

If you back Dončić to go big against Lendeborg and company, 40+ points sits at 35¢ and returns $268.71 on a $100 buy. The price is above his full-season rate of 25% (16 of 64 games) but below his last-20 rate of 40%, and he has cleared 40 in two of four games this season.

He has scored 40 or more in 5 of 25 career games against Golden State, including 43 in last season's opener and 45 at Chase Center in December 2024 as a Maverick, and his 40.2% usage rate leads the league. The caveat is script, since a big Lakers cushion held him to 28 in 30 minutes on opening night.

Luka Dončić Three-Pointers Prop Today – 4+ Threes Made

Dončić leads the NBA with 5.3 threes per game and has made four or more in three of four games, including eight at Utah and six against Portland. He attempts 13.3 a night, so the volume is there even when the percentage dips.

Last season he made four or more in 36 of 64 games (56%) and in 14 of his last 20 (70%), which puts the 61¢ price above his full-season rate but under his recent one.

Golden State has been a mixed bag. He made five on opening night and four in February, but went 0-for-6 in April 2025 and 2-of-10 in last season's opener, and he has hit four or more in 14 of 25 career games against them (56%). At a 61.85¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 162 shares, each worth $1 if Dončić makes four threes.

• If Dončić makes four or more threes: this ticket returns $157.50.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is about a 1.6x return on a prop that leans on his shot volume.

For a bigger swing from deep, 5+ threes is priced at 36¢ and returns about $277.78 on a $100 buy. He reached five in 21 of 64 games last season (33%) and in 8 of his last 20 (40%), and he has already done it three times in four games this year, so the price looks fair.

He has made five or more in 8 of 25 career games against the Warriors, and five came on opening night. The caveat is variance, since the 2-of-8 night against the Clippers shows how quickly this line can miss.

Luka Dončić Rebounds Prop Today – 8+ Rebounds

Rebounds are the quietest part of his game this season at 6.8 per game, though he has grabbed eight in two of four, including opening night against Golden State. Last season he reached eight in 31 of 64 games (48%), which lines up with the 47¢ price and leaves no real edge on the number.

The head-to-head tilts a little in his favor, with eight or more in 16 of 25 career games against the Warriors (64%) and three of four as a Laker (8, 12, 6 and 8). The counterpoint is that 6.8 per game is below last season's 7.7, so this is a coin flip with a modest nudge. At a 47¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 213 shares, each worth $1 if Dončić grabs eight rebounds.

• If Dončić grabs eight or more rebounds: this ticket returns $205.21.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is just over a 2x return on a coin-flip number.

If you expect a messier, higher-possession night, 10+ rebounds sits at 30¢ and returns $312.54 on a $100 buy. He reached ten in 19 of 64 games last season (30%), exactly what the price asks, but he has not done it yet this year, with a high of eight.

Against the Warriors he has ten or more in 9 of 25 career games (36%), including 12 in last season's opener. The caveat is the trend, since 6.8 per game is below last year's pace, so this is a small add-on rather than a core trade.

Luka Dončić Assists Prop Today – 8+ Assists

Dončić is averaging 8.3 assists and has reached eight twice in four games, with ten at Utah and nine against Portland. Last season he hit eight in 38 of 64 games (59%), a close match for the 58¢ price.

He has handed out eight or more in 15 of 25 career games against Golden State (60%), though his four games as a Laker read 7, 9, 8 and 7. The Lakers have finishers, with Walker Kessler going 12-for-12 on opening night and Austin Reaves and Quentin Grimes both scoring in double figures against the Clippers. At a 58¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 172 shares, each worth $1 if Dončić records eight assists.

• If Dončić records eight or more assists: this ticket returns $167.51.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is about a 1.7x return on the cleanest passing number on the board.

Anyone expecting the Lakers' shooters to stay hot can step up to 10+ assists at 34¢, which returns $281.20 on a $100 buy. He reached ten in 23 of 64 games last season (36%), a touch above the price, and once in four games this year with the 10 at Utah.

He has ten or more in 9 of 25 career games against the Warriors, including 17 in a March 2023 game as a Maverick, but his best as a Laker against them is nine. This line needs his teammates to convert, so it works best as a smaller add-on.

Luka Dončić Combo Prop Today – 45+ Points, Rebounds and Assists

Dončić is averaging 51.1 combined points, rebounds and assists this season and has cleared 45 in two of four games, with 70 at Utah and 55 against Portland. Last season he reached 45 in 46 of 64 games (72%), so the 68¢ price sits just under his full-season rate, a thin edge.

The head-to-head is less friendly. He has reached 45 in 13 of 25 career games against Golden State (52%) and only once in four tries as a Laker (34, 64, 40 and 43), with the 43 on opening night coming in 30 minutes. At a 68¢ average price, a $100 buy is roughly 147 shares, each worth $1 if Dončić reaches 45 combined.

• If Dončić reaches 45 combined points, rebounds and assists: this ticket returns $143.85.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is a total loss.

That is about a 1.4x return on the safest combined number on the board.

For the full version of the ticket, 50+ combined is priced at 55¢ and returns $176.30 on a $100 buy. He reached 50 in 35 of 64 games last season (55%), level with the price, and has done it twice in four games this year.

Against the Warriors he has 50 or more in 11 of 25 career games (44%), led by the 64 in last season's opener (43 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in 41 minutes). Minutes are the caveat, since a lopsided score capped him at 43 in 30 minutes on opening night.

What's Moving the Market for Luka Dončić Player Props

Prediction market prices move for many reasons, and the biggest swing factor on this board is Dončić's back. He sat out Wednesday's 103-87 win over the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back, and coach JJ Redick called the move precautionary.

He is now off the Lakers' injury report, but a small minutes risk is still baked into the prices, which is why 35+ points sits at 50¢ against a 36.0 season average.

Lendeborg has said publicly he lost respect for Dončić after opening night, so the matchup carries real tension. Golden State's absences matter more for the numbers, since a comfortable Lakers win would trim his minutes and hurt the longer shots most.

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Lakers vs Warriors Moneyline, Spread and Total

Dončić is the biggest swing factor on the base lines too. The Lakers beat Golden State by 22 on opening night with him scoring 28, then beat the Clippers by 16 on Wednesday without him.

Polymarket prices Los Angeles at 56% to win outright, a much narrower edge than the opener's margin suggests.

The moneyline is a Dončić question first. Los Angeles is 4-1 with the NBA's leading scorer off the injury report, while Golden State at 45% still has Curry at 28.8 points per game but is without Butler, Moody and Porzingis.

The spread is a minutes question. A comfortable cover usually trims his night, as the 30 minutes on opening night showed, while a one-possession game keeps him near the 38 and 37 minutes he played at Utah and against Portland.

The total of 234.5 is a coin flip, but Dončić has pushed it up. Three of the four games he has played this season finished above 234.5 combined points, while Wednesday's game without him totaled 190.

If you are stacking ideas, a close game helps his points, assists and combo tickets far more than a Lakers rout does.

More Points Props for Lakers vs. Warriors

Beyond our Luka Dončić player props, here is every player Polymarket has priced for points, sorted from the safest number down.

• Matisse Thybulle (Points 5+: Yes 59%): scored 15 points with four threes in Wednesday's win over the Clippers.
• Brandin Podziemski (Points 15+: Yes 57%): a Warriors guard carrying a 15-point line, the same bar as Walker Kessler.
• Stephen Curry (Points 25+: Yes 54%): averaging 28.8 points per game, third in the NBA behind Dončić and Anthony Edwards.
• De'Anthony Melton (Points 10+: Yes 51%): a Warriors guard with a 10-point line.
• Luka Dončić (Points 35+: Yes 50%): leads the NBA at 36.0 points per game and has cleared 35 in two of four games this season.
• Walker Kessler (Points 15+: Yes 50%): scored 26 points on 12-for-12 shooting against Golden State on opening night.
• Sandro Mamukelashvili (Points 10+: Yes 47%): a Lakers frontcourt piece with a 10-point line.
• Austin Reaves (Points 25+: Yes 46%): scored 16 points in Wednesday's win without Dončić.
• Quentin Grimes (Points 5+: Yes 46%): scored 23 points in Wednesday's win after moving into the starting lineup.
• Georges Niang (Points 10+: Yes 36%): a Warriors forward with a 10-point line.
• Draymond Green (Points 10+: Yes 32%): the longest price among the priced scorers on this board.
• Yaxel Lendeborg (Points 20+: no price posted): the Warriors rookie scored 12 points on opening night and held Dončić to 1-of-5 as his primary defender.

More Three-Point Props for Lakers vs. Warriors

Here is the full three-pointers board, with every priced player sorted from the safest number down.

• Yaxel Lendeborg (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 83%): the Warriors rookie sits at the highest price on the board.
• Brandin Podziemski (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 64%): a Warriors guard with a two-make line.
• Luka Dončić (Three-Pointers Made 4+: Yes 61%): leads the NBA at 5.3 threes per game and attempts 13.3 a night.
• Stephen Curry (Three-Pointers Made 4+: Yes 54%): shooting 47.7% from the field this season, with a four-make line.
• Georges Niang (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 54%): a Warriors forward with a two-make line.
• Matisse Thybulle (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 44%): made four threes in Wednesday's win over the Clippers.
• Draymond Green (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 42%): a Warriors veteran with a two-make line.
• Austin Reaves (Three-Pointers Made 3+: Yes 41%): a Lakers guard with a three-make line.
• De'Anthony Melton (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 40%): a Warriors guard with a two-make line.
• Quentin Grimes (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 40%): a Lakers guard who scored 23 points on Wednesday.
• Sandro Mamukelashvili (Three-Pointers Made 2+: Yes 37%): a Lakers frontcourt piece with a two-make line.

More Rebounds Props for Lakers vs. Warriors

The rebounds board runs from the safest number to the longest, with every priced player included.

• Austin Reaves (Rebounds 4+: Yes 64%): a Lakers guard with a four-rebound line.
• Walker Kessler (Rebounds 10+: Yes 61%): carries the only double-digit line on the board and ranks third in the NBA at 2.4 blocks per game.
• Sandro Mamukelashvili (Rebounds 4+: Yes 60%): a Lakers frontcourt piece with a four-rebound line.
• Draymond Green (Rebounds 6+: Yes 53%): a Warriors veteran with a six-rebound line.
• Yaxel Lendeborg (Rebounds 8+: Yes 51%): grabbed three rebounds in 28 minutes on opening night.
• Brandin Podziemski (Rebounds 6+: Yes 48%): a Warriors guard with a six-rebound line.
• Luka Dončić (Rebounds 8+: Yes 47%): averaging 6.8 rebounds this season, with eight in two of four games.
• Stephen Curry (Rebounds 4+: Yes 44%): a Warriors guard with a four-rebound line.
• Quentin Grimes (Rebounds 4+: Yes 43%): a Lakers guard with a four-rebound line.
• Georges Niang (Rebounds 4+: Yes 36%): a Warriors forward with a four-rebound line.
• De'Anthony Melton (Rebounds 4+: no price posted): a Warriors guard whose four-rebound line had no price at the time of writing.

More Assists Props for Lakers vs. Warriors

Here is the full assists board, sorted from the safest number down.

• Stephen Curry (Assists 4+: Yes 67%): the Warriors' leading scorer at 28.8 points per game, with a four-assist line.
• De'Anthony Melton (Assists 2+: Yes 67%): a Warriors guard with a two-assist line.
• Draymond Green (Assists 6+: Yes 61%): carries the highest assist line on the Warriors side.
• Yaxel Lendeborg (Assists 4+: Yes 61%): dished two assists in his NBA debut.
• Quentin Grimes (Assists 2+: Yes 61%): a Lakers guard with a two-assist line.
• Luka Dončić (Assists 8+: Yes 58%): averaging 8.3 assists this season, with ten at Utah and nine against Portland.
• Austin Reaves (Assists 6+: Yes 58%): carries the highest assist line on the Lakers side behind Dončić.
• Brandin Podziemski (Assists 4+: Yes 49%): a Warriors guard with a four-assist line.

More Points, Rebounds & Assists Props for Lakers vs. Warriors

Here is the full combined points, rebounds and assists board, sorted from the safest number down.

• Stephen Curry (Points + Rebounds + Assists 30+: Yes 67%): scoring 28.8 points per game, which does most of the work toward this line.
• Walker Kessler (Points + Rebounds + Assists 25+: Yes 63%): scored 26 points on opening night and ranks third in the NBA in blocks.
• Yaxel Lendeborg (Points + Rebounds + Assists 30+: Yes 60%): posted 17 combined in his NBA debut, with 12 points, three rebounds and two assists.
• De'Anthony Melton (Points + Rebounds + Assists 15+: Yes 57%): a Warriors guard with a 15-point combined line.
• Sandro Mamukelashvili (Points + Rebounds + Assists 15+: Yes 56%): a Lakers frontcourt piece with a 15-point combined line.
• Luka Dončić (Points + Rebounds + Assists 50+: Yes 55%): averaging 51.1 combined this season, so the line sits right on his normal output.
• Brandin Podziemski (Points + Rebounds + Assists 25+: Yes 51%): a Warriors guard with a 25-point combined line.
• Austin Reaves (Points + Rebounds + Assists 35+: Yes 48%): carries the highest combined line on the Lakers side behind Dončić.
• Draymond Green (Points + Rebounds + Assists 20+: Yes 45%): a Warriors veteran with a 20-point combined line.
• Quentin Grimes (Points + Rebounds + Assists 10+: Yes 44%): a Lakers guard with a 10-point combined line.
• Georges Niang (Points + Rebounds + Assists 15+: Yes 43%): a Warriors forward with a 15-point combined line.

Final Thoughts: Luka Dončić Player Props for the NBA Cup Rematch

Friday sets up as a strong test of Dončić's volume, with Golden State missing Butler, Moody and Porzingis, a rookie who wants the matchup and a scorer averaging 36.0 points. The tickets above lean on that workload more than on any single hot-shooting night.

The safest reads are the ones where his price sits at or below his rate, like 8+ assists and 50+ combined, while 35+ points and 4+ threes ask for a bit more than his full-season history. Check his status before tip-off, since his back is the one variable that can change every ticket.

If you are ready to trade, use Polymarket promo code ACTION and keep the longer shots as smaller positions.

Luka Dončić Player Props with the Polymarket Promo Code ACTION – FAQs

What is the Polymarket promo code for Lakers vs Warriors? The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. Create an account, make a qualifying deposit and enter the code to unlock the trading bonus before tip-off.

What are the best Luka Dončić player props for Lakers vs Warriors? Our top plays are Dončić 35+ points, 8+ assists and 45+ combined points, rebounds and assists, with 4+ threes and 8+ rebounds rounding out the board. Every category also has a longer-shot line for a bigger payout.

How many points will Luka Dončić score against the Warriors? Polymarket gives Dončić a 50% chance to reach 35 points and a 35% chance to reach 40. He leads the NBA at 36.0 points per game this season and scored 28 against Golden State on opening night.

Is Luka Dončić playing against the Warriors? Dončić is not on the Lakers' injury report for Friday after sitting out Wednesday's win over the Clippers with back tightness that coach JJ Redick called precautionary. Check the latest report before tip-off.

Is Stephen Curry playing against the Lakers? Curry is not listed on Golden State's injury report, which shows Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis out and Gui Santos day to day with a knee issue.

What are the Lakers vs Warriors odds on Polymarket? Polymarket prices the Lakers at 56% to win outright, with Lakers -2.5 at 51% and the total at 234.5 with the over at 50%.

How do Polymarket player prop contracts work? Each contract resolves Yes if the player reaches the stated number in that game and No if he does not. Every share pays one dollar if your side is right and nothing if it is wrong.