Jason De Puy walked into Week 3 with safety in his pocket and walks toward Thursday night as the house's backdoor target, and the Kalshi market has him pegged as the most likely houseguest to hear "you have been evicted."
His fate is not sealed, though: one competition win could flip the entire board.
Here is how traders are pricing the Big Brother 28 Week 3 eviction as it heads to resolution tonight.
Big Brother 28 Week 3 Elimination Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price maps directly to the market's implied probability, so a contract at 61¢ reflects roughly a 60% chance. A "Yes" position pays out $1.00 if that houseguest is the one evicted this week and $0 if they survive, and traders can buy or sell their position before the market closes.
This market resolves with Thursday's live eviction. Only the three houseguests currently on the block, Jason, Mallory, and LaTrice, are eligible to be voted out.
Jason De Puy (60%, Yes 61¢ / No 40¢, +6 pts)
Jason is the house's clear target after HOH Kamu Kirk named him as the replacement nominee once Lyric Medeiros used the Power of Veto on herself. The 60% price, up 6 points, reflects a straightforward read: the dominant side of the house wants him out and controls the votes.
The one thing keeping this contract from pricing higher is Thursday's BB Block Buster, Jason's only escape hatch, and he already won that competition last week. If he wins it again, this contract collapses toward zero and the target shifts elsewhere.
Mallory Aurichio (35%, Yes 35¢ / No 66¢, +18 pts)
Mallory is the biggest mover on the board, up 18 points, and the surge has a clear cause: she is the consensus backup target. Reporting from the house indicates that if Jason wins the Blockbuster and saves himself, Kamu and the majority would pivot to Mallory.
She has escaped the block twice already, winning the Week 1 Veto herself, but the market is now treating her as the live alternative rather than an afterthought. Her price is essentially a bet on Jason surviving Thursday's competition.
LaTrice Verrett (2%, Yes 3¢ / No 98¢, -24 pts)
LaTrice has cratered 24 points and now trades as effectively safe. Despite early feed chatter about a faction wanting her out, the market has firmly decided she is not this week's story.
At 2%, traders are pricing her as the clear third option behind both Jason and Mallory. Barring a dramatic late shift in the house, her contract is signaling survival.
- The rest of the house (each near 0%): Every houseguest not sitting on the block trades in deep longshot territory, since only a current nominee can be voted out at Thursday's eviction. These contracts would only spike on a rare production twist.
You can sign up at Kalshi using promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get up to $500!
Big Brother 28 Week 3 Elimination Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The defining move on this board is Jason's transformation from safe to doomed. He entered the week off a Blockbuster win that earned him safety, but Kamu engineered a backdoor by keeping him off the initial nominations so he could not play for the Veto, then installed him as the renom after Lyric pulled herself down.
The tea party blowup accelerated the narrative. What Mallory intended as a lighthearted gathering became the stage for Kamu to publicly accuse Jason of breaking a Veto handshake deal, hardening house sentiment against him. Any lingering doubt about Jason's status was priced out once that confrontation went public.
The most telling secondary move is Mallory's 18-point climb paired with LaTrice's 24-point collapse. The market has settled on Mallory as the fallback target if Jason escapes, while writing LaTrice off as safe. That is the crowd sorting out exactly what happens if the Blockbuster reshuffles the week.
The shape of this board is a strong favorite with a genuine second option. At 60%, Jason is clearly ahead, but Mallory at 35% is close enough that a single competition result could swap the whole outcome. The Blockbuster is the hinge, and until it plays out Thursday, the market is right to leave room for a swing.
How to Trade Big Brother 28 Week 3 Elimination on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Trade $25, Get up to $500!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Big Brother 28 Week 3 Elimination: Final Thoughts
Jason De Puy is the market's pick to go at 60%, and the house dynamics back that up, but a genuine second option in Mallory Aurichio means this is not a locked outcome. The real question resolving Thursday is whether Jason can win the Blockbuster for a second week running. If he cannot, the crowd's read holds; if he can, Mallory at 35% is the clear fallback while LaTrice has already been priced out at 2%.
Big Brother 28 Week 3 Elimination FAQs
Who is favored to be evicted on Big Brother 28 this week?
Jason De Puy is the favorite on Kalshi at 60%, trading at 61¢. He was named as the replacement nominee and is the house's clear backdoor target heading into Thursday's live eviction.
Why is Jason De Puy the target if he won safety last week?
Kamu Kirk deliberately kept Jason off the initial nominations so he could not compete for the Power of Veto, then installed him as the renom after Lyric Medeiros won the Veto and used it on herself. That is the backdoor strategy in action.
Can Jason De Puy still save himself?
Yes. Jason gets one more shot at safety in Thursday's BB Block Buster, a competition he won last week. If he wins it again, his eviction contract falls toward zero and the house pivots to a new target.
Why are Mallory Aurichio's odds rising?
Mallory has surged 18 points to 35% because the market sees her as the backup target. Reporting from the house indicates that if Jason wins the Blockbuster and saves himself, the majority would send Mallory home instead.
Why did LaTrice Verrett's odds drop?
LaTrice has fallen 24 points to just 2%, meaning the market now views her as safe. Traders have priced her as the clear third option behind Jason and Mallory this week.
How does the Kalshi Big Brother elimination market work?
Each houseguest has a "Yes" contract priced from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps to the implied probability that they are the one evicted this week. A "Yes" settles at $1.00 if that person is voted out and $0 if they survive.
When does the Big Brother 28 Week 3 market resolve?
The market resolves with Thursday's live eviction episode, once the house vote is revealed and one nominee is officially sent home.
