Now is your last chance to trade the Kalshi midterms board and make midterm election predictions for the biggest races before the polls close tonight. The Kalshi promo code (ACTION55) is perfect to sign up with this Election Day before trading any of the key political races that interest you:
- Kalshi midterms markets in this guide cover Senate races in Michigan and Texas, governor races in Texas and Florida, the Los Angeles mayor's race, and control of the House, Senate and Congress, with more than $700 million in combined trading volume.
- Kalshi prices Democrats as the favorite in both the House (94%) and Senate (75%) control markets, while the Texas and Florida governor markets both price the Republican candidate as the favorite.
Here is a quick look at the market favorite in each race, using current Kalshi midterms odds from one of the best prediction markets:
| 🗳️ Race (Election Day) | 🏷️ Market Favorite: Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate: El-Sayed vs. Rogers (Nov 3) | Abdul El-Sayed (D): Yes | 78¢ | $128.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Senate: Talarico vs. Paxton (Nov 3) | James Talarico (D): Yes | 74¢ | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Los Angeles Mayor: Bass vs. Raman (Nov 3) | Karen Bass: Yes | 58¢ | $172.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Governor: Abbott vs. Hinojosa (Nov 3) | Greg Abbott (R): Yes | 61¢ | $163.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor: Donalds vs. Jolly (Nov 3) | Byron Donalds (R): Yes | 66¢ | $151.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Congress Balance of Power (Nov 3) | Democrats Sweep: Yes | 74¢ | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| House Control (Nov 3) | Democratic Party: Yes | 94.1¢ | $106.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Senate Control (Nov 3) | Democratic Party: Yes | 75¢ | $133.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Read our Action Network dedicated Kalshi review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.
Kalshi Midterms: Midterm Election Predictions and Odds for Every Major Race
These are real, tradable markets on Kalshi, not hypotheticals, so every price below reflects where traders are putting money right now. If you are still choosing a platform, our guide to the best prediction market apps compares the options.
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Election Day is today, Tuesday, Nov 3, and the board is deep on both statewide races and national control.
We start with the Senate races in Michigan and Texas, move through the Los Angeles mayor's race and two governor's races, and finish with Kalshi's House, Senate and combined control markets.
For each race, the table lists both sides of the market, and the breakdown below it explains what the price implies. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate or party.
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers Prediction: Michigan Senate
Michigan is the headline Senate race on the Kalshi midterms board. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed beat Rep.
Haley Stevens in the Aug 4 primary and now faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who ran unsuccessfully for Michigan's open Senate seat in 2024.
Kalshi prices El-Sayed at 78% with a D+4.5 margin forecast, backed by more than $27.6 million in volume. Polling is closer than that price may suggest: PollCheck's average as of Oct. 27 had El-Sayed up 47.9% to 44.7%, and Marist's Oct 21 survey had it 50% to 48%.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | Yes | 78¢ | $128.21 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Mike Rogers (R) | Yes | 23¢ | $434.78 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Michigan Senate
Each candidate has a Yes contract that pays out $1 if they win. El-Sayed's Yes price is 78¢, which would return roughly $128.21 on a $100 trade, while Rogers' Yes price is 23¢, which would return roughly $434.78.
The two prices add up to slightly more than $1, which is normal spread in a liquid market. Kalshi's chart shows El-Sayed's side holding near 75% to 80% for much of the past year, dipping earlier in 2026 and recovering since.
El-Sayed's case rests on a polling lead that has shown up in most recent surveys, including a 51.4% to 45.1% WDIV/Detroit News result. Rogers' case rests on how narrow several polls have been, with InsiderAdvantage's Oct 23 survey at 47% to 46%.
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton Prediction: Texas Senate
Texas gives Kalshi traders one of the biggest Senate storylines of the cycle.
Republican Ken Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff, and Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from Austin, is trying to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas in more than 30 years.
Kalshi has Talarico at 74% with a D+3.4 margin forecast and more than $77.4 million in volume.
Recent polls are close, with the University of Houston's Hobby School showing Talarico ahead 48% to 46% in mid-October and Texas Southern showing 47% to 46% in September.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | Yes | 74¢ | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ken Paxton (R) | Yes | 27¢ | $370.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Texas Senate
Talarico's Yes contract costs 74¢ and would return roughly $135.14 on a $100 trade. Paxton's Yes contract costs 27¢ and would return roughly $370.37.
Kalshi's chart shows the Republican side priced near 75% to 80% for much of 2025, with the lines crossing in 2026 as polling tightened.
Texas Southern's September poll also found both candidates with more unfavorable than favorable ratings, and a Libertarian, Ted Brown, at 3%.
The case for Talarico is a string of narrow poll leads and strength with independents. The case for Paxton is Texas's recent statewide record and a Republican electorate that can still consolidate behind him, since Beto O'Rourke lost by 2.5 points in 2018.
Karen Bass vs. Nithya Raman Prediction: Los Angeles Mayor
The Los Angeles mayor's race is the only local contest on this board, but it is one of Kalshi's busiest, with more than $108.7 million in volume.
Incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman advanced from a June 2 primary in which Bass took 34%, Raman 29% and Spencer Pratt 26%.
Kalshi has Bass at 58% and Raman at 42%. The Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll released Oct 28 had the two tied at 40% with 19% undecided, erasing an 11-point Raman lead from a September survey.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | Yes | 58¢ | $172.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Nithya Raman | Yes | 42¢ | $238.10 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Los Angeles Mayor
Bass's Yes contract costs 58¢ and would return roughly $172.41 on a $100 trade. Raman's Yes contract costs 42¢ and would return roughly $238.10.
Neither candidate is especially popular in the latest poll, with 32% of likely voters viewing Bass positively and 42% viewing Raman positively.
Raman's support among Pratt's primary voters was 14% in the October survey, so the undecided bloc is a big swing factor for both sides.
Kalshi's chart has swung widely since the market opened, which fits a race where polls moved by double digits in a month. Developer Rick Caruso has backed Bass, while Raman leads among younger voters.
Greg Abbott vs. Gina Hinojosa Prediction: Texas Governor
Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a historic fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Kalshi prices Abbott at 60% with an R+1.9 margin forecast, on more than $15.8 million in volume.
Polls have traded leads all fall. PollCheck's average as of Oct 27 had Abbott ahead 48.8% to 46.3%, Texas Southern's Oct 21 to 25 survey had it 50% to 47%, and a YouGov poll from late September to early October had Hinojosa up 48% to 47%.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott (R) | Yes | 61¢ | $163.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Gina Hinojosa (D) | Yes | 40¢ | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Texas Governor
Abbott's Yes contract costs 61¢ and would return roughly $163.93 on a $100 trade. Hinojosa's Yes contract costs 40¢ and would return roughly $250.00.
Kalshi's chart shows Abbott's side near 90% earlier in the cycle before sliding to its current level, and the board shows a six-point swing toward Hinojosa on the latest move.
Texas Southern's own numbers narrowed from 49% to 45% in September to 50% to 47% in late October.
Abbott's case is a consistent, if small, edge in most recent polls and a large lead in rural Texas. Hinojosa's case is her lead with independents in several surveys and with Black, Latino and younger voters.
Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly Prediction: Florida Governor
Florida's governor's seat is open because Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Republican Rep.
Byron Donalds, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, faces David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the GOP in 2018 and registered as a Democrat in 2025.
Kalshi has Donalds at 65% with an R+2.4 margin forecast and more than $11.4 million in volume. A University of North Florida poll had Donalds ahead 49% to 47%, tighter than the five-point lead UNF found in July.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds (R) | Yes | 66¢ | $151.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| David Jolly (D) | Yes | 35¢ | $285.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Florida Governor
Donalds' Yes contract costs 66¢ and would return roughly $151.52 on a $100 trade. Jolly's Yes contract costs 35¢ and would return roughly $285.71.
Polling here has been sharply split, with some surveys showing a tie and others showing a double-digit Donalds lead.
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate the race Lean Republican, and Decision Desk HQ moved it from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
Donalds' case is Florida's recent Republican statewide record and a large fundraising edge. Jolly's case is the late tightening in several polls and a UNF result in which 11% of registered Republicans backed him.
Congress Balance of Power Prediction: Kalshi Midterms Odds for Both Chambers
Kalshi's Congress Balance of Power market bundles House and Senate control into four outcomes and has drawn more than $99.6 million in volume.
A Democratic sweep leads at 74%, followed by a Democratic House with a Republican Senate at 22%, a Republican sweep at 5.8% and a Republican House with a Democratic Senate at 0.6%.
Republicans entered the cycle with a 53-47 Senate edge, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to flip the chamber.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | Yes | 74¢ | $135.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Democratic House, Republican Senate | Yes | 22¢ | $454.55 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Republicans Sweep | Yes | 5.8¢ | $1,724.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Republican House, Democratic Senate | Yes | 0.6¢ | $16,666.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Congress Balance of Power
A Democratic sweep costs 74¢ and would return roughly $135.14 on a $100 trade. A Democratic House with a Republican Senate costs 22¢ and would return roughly $454.55, while a Republican sweep at 5.8¢ would return roughly $1,724.14.
The Republican House with a Democratic Senate contract at 0.6¢ shows an estimated return of $16,666.67, but a price that small usually reflects a thin order book, so real fills can differ a lot from the estimate.
Kalshi's 74% for a Democratic sweep sits well above the 54% to 55% that aggregated forecasts put on that outcome one week out. The gap is the main question for anyone weighing the sweep contract against the split-Congress contract.
Democrats vs. Republicans Prediction: House Control
The House control market is Kalshi's biggest on this board, with more than $219.4 million in volume. Kalshi prices the Democratic Party at 94% and the Republican Party at 6%.
Cook Political Report said on Oct 23 that Democrats are favored outright, projecting 12 to 22 seat flips for a total of 227 to 237 seats. Decision Desk HQ's Oct 26 model gave Democrats a 79% chance and a projected 238 seats.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | Yes | 94.1¢ | $106.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Republican Party | Yes | 6.4¢ | $1,562.50 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: House Control
The Democratic Party's Yes contract costs 94.1¢ and would return roughly $106.27 on a $100 trade. The Republican Party's Yes contract costs 6.4¢ and would return roughly $1,562.50.
The Democratic case is history, since the president's party has lost seats in 37 of the last 41 midterms, and a small majority to overturn. The Republican case is how few seats are truly competitive, with most forecasters rating only about 20 House races as toss-ups.
Kalshi's 94% is more bullish than Decision Desk HQ's 79%, so the board is pricing in more certainty than at least one major model.
Democrats vs. Republicans Prediction: Senate Control
Kalshi's Senate control market has drawn more than $153.7 million in volume and prices the Democratic Party at 75% and the Republican Party at 25%.
The market settles on media consensus, and if there is none, it settles on the party of the President pro tempore on Feb 1, 2027.
Decision Desk HQ's Oct 26 forecast gave Democrats a 57% chance of winning the Senate and projected 51 seats. Races in Texas, Ohio and Iowa have been described as the toss-ups that could decide the chamber.
| 🗳️ Pick | 🏷️ Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | Yes | 75¢ | $133.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Republican Party | Yes | 27¢ | $370.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Kalshi Midterm Odds Breakdown: Senate Control
The Democratic Party's Yes contract costs 75¢ and would return roughly $133.33 on a $100 trade. The Republican Party's Yes contract costs 27¢ and would return roughly $370.37.
The Democratic path runs through holding Michigan and flipping several Republican-held seats, which is why the Michigan and Texas Senate markets above matter so much to this price. The Republican path is holding enough toss-ups to keep a 53-47 majority.
Kalshi's 75% is well above Decision Desk HQ's 57%, and the board's Democratic side gained five points on its latest move.
What's Moving the Kalshi Midterms Odds
The latest moves on the board have gone the Democratic candidate's way in every partisan race here. El-Sayed gained 7 points in Michigan, Talarico gained 5 in Texas, Hinojosa gained 6 in the Texas governor's race and Jolly gained 1 in Florida.
In national control, the Democratic Senate and Democratic sweep contracts each gained 5 points.
Los Angeles was the exception to any partisan pattern, since both candidates are Democrats. Raman gained 1 point as the Oct 28 poll showed the race tied, but Bass is still the favorite on Kalshi.
Prices and polls also tell different stories. Michigan's 78% price sits on a polling lead of roughly three points, and Texas's governor's race is priced 60-40 on polls that mostly sit inside the margin of error.
A price is a probability of winning, not a vote share, so a small but steady lead can justify a bigger number.
Election results will move these prices quickly on Tuesday night. Keep an eye on prediction markets for updates as the board shifts.
How to Trade These Midterm Markets on Kalshi
Ready to get in on the Kalshi midterms board? Here's exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading:
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the Midterms tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
- When you're ready, sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to get started!
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Final Thoughts on the Kalshi Midterms
The Kalshi midterms board shows where traders stand heading into Tuesday: Democrats favored in House and Senate control, Republicans favored in both governor's races, and closer calls in Michigan, Texas and Los Angeles.
Prices are probabilities, not certainties, and several of these races have polling inside the margin of error. Close contests can also take time to call, and the Senate control market settles on media consensus.
If you want to trade these midterm election predictions, the Kalshi promo code above is the quickest way to get started.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs for the Midterms
What Are the Kalshi Midterms Markets?
Kalshi lists markets on Senate races, governor races, House control, Senate control and some local races ahead of Election Day on Nov 3.
This guide covers the Michigan and Texas Senate races, the Texas and Florida governor races, the Los Angeles mayor's race, and the House, Senate and combined Congress control markets.
What Are the Kalshi Midterm Odds for House Control?
At the time of writing, Kalshi prices the Democratic Party at 94% and the Republican Party at 6% to win control of the House. Prices move throughout the day, so check Kalshi for current odds.
What Are the Kalshi Odds for Senate Control?
At the time of writing, Kalshi prices the Democratic Party at 75% and the Republican Party at 25% to win control of the Senate. Those prices can change quickly as results come in.
How Does Kalshi Settle the Senate Control Market?
Kalshi says the Senate control market settles on media consensus. If there is no consensus, it settles based on the party of the President pro tempore on Feb 1, 2027.
How Do I Use the Kalshi Promo Code for the Midterms?
Create a Kalshi account through the offer on this page, enter the Kalshi promo code during sign up, and complete the qualifying steps listed in the offer terms.
Then browse the Midterms tab and trade any race you want. Offer terms and eligibility vary, so review the full terms on Kalshi.
What Do Kalshi Midterm Prices Mean?
Each price is the cost of a contract that pays one dollar if that outcome happens. A price of 78 cents implies roughly a 78 percent chance, and the gap between prices on opposite sides of a market is the spread.
How Should I Read Kalshi Midterm Election Predictions?
Treat prices as probabilities, not guarantees. A favorite at 78 cents still loses roughly 22 percent of the time, and polls, turnout and late news can shift prices before results are known.
When Is Election Day for the 2026 Midterms?
Election Day is today, Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026.
Which Kalshi Midterms Market Has the Most Trading Volume?
At the time of writing, the House control market leads the markets in this guide with more than 219 million dollars in volume, followed by the Senate control market at more than 153 million dollars.
