Use the Polymarket promo code ACTION and deposit $10 to get a $25 trading bonus ahead of Tuesday's Polymarket Midterms. The Democrats and Republicans go head-to-head in numerous elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and a few of them could send prediction markets into a frenzy before you know it. The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET, with results on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox News.
These two sides know each other well. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and a 218-214 House edge over Democrats, who lead the RealClearPolitics average by 8.5 points, and Emerson's final national poll puts Trump's approval at 37%. In 2018, Trump's first midterm, Republicans lost 41 House seats. Check the full Democrats vs. Republicans odds or read what Polymarket is telling us about the midterms before you trade.
You may not be into sports trading, but the 2026 Midterms make the Polymarket promo code ACTION bonus worth a look. A $10 deposit puts $35 in your account, enough to trade House control, the Senate, and every race in my Democrats vs. Republicans prediction below on Polymarket Midterms markets.
How to Claim the Polymarket Promo Code ACTION
Enter ACTION when you sign up for Polymarket US, deposit at least $10, and Polymarket adds a $25 trading bonus to your account. A bigger deposit doesn't raise the bonus.
- Tap the sign-up link to download the Polymarket US app on iOS or Android.
- Enter the promo code ACTION during registration.
- Finish registration and verify your identity.
- Deposit at least $10.
- Place your first trade on any Polymarket Midterms market, including House or Senate control.
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The offer opens to new users 18 and older in AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, and WY.
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2026 Midterm Odds: Previews & Predictions
My Democrats vs. Republicans prediction is a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, with Mike Rogers winning Michigan and Dan Sullivan holding Alaska. The table shows the Polymarket US price for each leg. Prices come from Polymarket US on Monday.
| Market | Side | Polymarket Price |
|---|---|---|
| House control | Democrats | 95¢ |
| Senate control | Republicans | 28¢ |
| Balance of power | Democratic House, Republican Senate | 23¢ |
| Michigan Senate | Mike Rogers (R) | 23¢ |
| Alaska Senate | Dan Sullivan (R) | 28¢ |
Odds subject to change. Always check Polymarket for the most current Politics odds before the polls close in these select locations.
2026 Midterm Predictions
Democratic House, Republican Senate (23¢)
This is the headline pick, and Polymarket US prices it at 23¢ in the balance-of-power market. A $1 contract pays more than four times its cost if it hits, and I love the value here. The House looks all but wrapped up, with Democrats at 95¢ and NPR's count of Cook ratings showing 220 seats leaning their way. Republicans hold just 218 seats today, so Democrats need only a handful of net gains.
The Senate half carries the payout, as Democrats and their two independent allies hold 47 seats and need a net gain of four to reach 51; Vice President JD Vance breaks a 50-50 tie. Polymarket gives Democrats 72¢ for the Senate, and I'm trading against the crowd. Sure, the Blue Wave is strong in the House, but I think Republicans have all but conceded those seats and shifted their attention to the Gubernatorial elections. It hasn't been a particularly great media cycle for a pair of Democrats in recent days, and that could reshape how we're thinking about the entire picture.
Mike Rogers Wins Michigan (23¢)
Rogers trades at 23¢ in a race for an open seat held by Democrats. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed him on Sunday, two days before Election Day, after a public feud with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens lost the August primary to El-Sayed by a narrow margin, so the endorsement is a rare crossover that could matter.
Polls put El-Sayed ahead by a close 2-6 points, but he's swimming through rough waters before Election Day after the Stevens flip-flop and negative media coverage. The Michigan race has been under a national media microscope since the matchup was announced, and I think that helped the Republicans out a lot along the way. I love the price we're getting on Rogers here in Michigan.
Dan Sullivan Holds Alaska (28¢)
The latest Alaska Survey Research poll, from Oct. 26-29, has Peltola ahead by only two points in the final round. Two late-September polls put Sullivan (who won his 2020 race by 12.7 points) ahead, but Alaska now uses ranked-choice voting, which didn't exist then.
Peltola also faces a late controversy. On Oct. 28, The New York Times reported that people aligned with her campaign helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher who shares the senator’s name, onto the ballot. Peltola says she knew nothing about it, and her campaign denies any involvement. Alaska’s governor has ordered an investigation, and the story is only days old. No one knows how much it moves voters this close to Election Day, but I think the fallout gives Sullivan a better shot than 28¢ suggests.
If you like my content and picks, sign up with the Polymarket promo code ACTION, deposit $10, and place your first trade on my Democrats vs. Republicans prediction before Tuesday's Polymarket Midterms results arrive. Polls start closing at 6 p.m. ET, and prices move with every race call.
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