The Blue Jays have taken the first two games of this weekend set at Rogers Centre, beating Gerrit Cole and the Yankees 3-1 on Friday behind Shane Bieber and Alejandro Kirk's homer, then following up with a 4-1 win Saturday as Charles McAdoo delivered the go-ahead double against New York's bullpen.
That's a third straight loss for a Yankees offense that has scored just two runs across the last two games, and Toronto is using the surge to push back into the thick of the AL Wild Card race. Sunday's rubber match pits Dylan Cease against Ryan Weathers, and Kalshi has the full market open with the current Kalshi promo code: ACTION.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Predictions: Kalshi Money Line Contracts
Kalshi's Money Line contracts pay out $1 if the named team wins the game outright, with the Yes price reflecting the market's implied probability.
As of this morning, Toronto is priced as the favorite in this event contract, a shift from most outside sportsbooks that still lean toward New York's superior overall record.
Toronto (53%, Yes 54¢ / No 47¢)
Toronto has climbed 3 points overnight, and it isn't hard to see why. The Blue Jays are throwing Dylan Cease, an AL Cy Young contender carrying a 2.40 ERA and the league's second-highest strikeout rate, against a Yankees lineup that has posted the AL's worst strikeout rate over the past 30 days. Toronto also gets the platform advantage of a home crowd that's seen its team win 13 of its last 19.
New York (47%, Yes 47¢ / No 54¢)
New York still holds the better overall record at 68-55 and sits second in the AL East, but the market is pricing in real concern about an offense that's gone cold without Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton all sidelined at once. Ryan Weathers gives the Yankees a credible left-handed look, but his 3.69 ERA is a notable step down from what Toronto is trotting out.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays Spread and Total Predictions
Toronto wins by over 1.5 runs (34%, Yes 34¢ / No 67¢)
The market isn't buying a blowout. Both of the first two games in this series were decided by exactly two runs or fewer at the plate, and with Cease and Weathers both capable of keeping things tight, a multi-run Toronto margin is priced as the less likely outcome.
Over 6.5 runs scored (51%, Yes 51¢ / No 50¢)
This is about as close to a coin flip as the board gets, down 9 points from where it opened. Two lean offenses and two quality starters point toward a lower-scoring affair, and multiple outside prediction models have flagged the under as the sharper side given how both lineups have performed over the past month.
Toronto over 3.5 runs scored (45%, Yes 45¢ / No 56¢)
Toronto's lineup has been inconsistent against left-handers specifically, which is part of why this team total sits under the coin-flip line facing Weathers.
New York over 3.5 runs scored (42%, Yes 43¢ / No 58¢)
New York's number sits even lower, a reflection of just how quiet this offense has been. The Yankees have plated only two total runs across their last two games in this series.
Best MLB Player Props Today: Home Runs and Hits
Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, shown as a single figure below rather than a paired Yes/No.
Home Runs (1+)
- Ben Rice (17%, Yes 17¢ / No 84¢): The highest number on the Yankees side of this category, and one of the few Yankees bats that's kept producing power while the rest of the lineup has cooled off.
- Kazuma Okamoto (14%, Yes 14¢ / No 87¢): Down 2 points overnight but still Toronto's top home run price, fitting for a middle-of-the-order bat who's provided some of the Jays' only consistent thump.
- Trent Grisham (14%, Yes 14¢ / No 87¢): Down a point after Grisham's home run in Friday's opener, a reminder he's capable of a repeat performance against a Toronto staff he's already touched up once this series.
- Luis García (14%, Yes 14¢ / No 87¢): Matches Grisham as Toronto's next-best price after Okamoto.
- George Springer (12%, Yes 12¢ / No 89¢): Down 2 points, still priced as a threat given Springer's track record against a Yankees staff he's faced dozens of times as a former AL East mainstay.
- Alejandro Kirk (10%, Yes 10¢ / No 91¢): Down a point despite Kirk's homer Friday, since Cease being on the mound for Toronto rather than at the plate limits how the market treats these contracts inning to inning.
- Austin Wells (10%, Yes 10¢ / No 91¢): New York's top catcher-spot price in this category.
- Heliot Ramos (10%, Yes 10¢ / No 91¢): Down a point, sitting mid-pack for Toronto.
- Ryan McMahon (10%, Yes 10¢ / No 91¢): Steady at 10% for New York's corner infielder.
- Spencer Jones (10%, Yes 10¢ / No 91¢): Matches McMahon as one of the Yankees' rookie bats getting everyday run during the slump.
- Charles McAdoo (9%, Yes 9¢ / No 92¢): Priced up after Saturday's tiebreaking double, though the market still treats a second straight extra-base night as a longer shot.
- George Lombard (9%, Yes 9¢ / No 92¢): Down a point for the Yankees' rookie infielder.
- Ernie Clement (7%, Yes 7¢ / No 94¢): A modest number for a contact-oriented bat who isn't typically the source of Toronto's power.
- José Caballero (6%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢): Down a point, reflecting a lighter role in the Yankees' lineup.
- Andrés Giménez (5%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢): One of the lower home run prices on the Toronto side.
- Myles Straw (4%, Yes 5¢ / No 96¢): The lowest Toronto number in this category, in line with Straw's speed-over-power profile.
- Brett Bateman (4%, Yes 5¢ / No 97¢): The board's lowest home run price overall.
Hits (1+)
- Alejandro Kirk (65%, Yes 65¢ / No 36¢): The single highest number on the entire board, and no surprise given Kirk's two-hit night Friday and his standing as one of Toronto's most consistent bat-to-ball threats.
- Ernie Clement (64%, Yes 65¢ / No 36¢): Down a point but still elite, matching Clement's reputation as one of the harder outs in the Yankees lineup even during this cold stretch.
- George Springer (63%, Yes 62¢ / No 39¢): A strong number for Toronto's veteran leadoff presence.
- Brett Bateman (62%, Yes 63¢ / No 38¢): One of the steadiest Toronto bats over the recent stretch that's seen the Jays win 13 of 19.
- Luis García (61%, Yes 62¢ / No 40¢): Solidly priced for Toronto's second baseman.
- Ben Rice (57%, Yes 58¢ / No 43¢): The top Yankees number in this category, again reflecting Rice's relative consistency amid the broader offensive slump.
- Charles McAdoo (55%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢): Priced up after his two-hit, RBI-double game Saturday.
- Heliot Ramos (55%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢): Matches McAdoo for Toronto.
- Kazuma Okamoto (55%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢): Also tied in, giving Toronto three bats clustered right around the coin-flip-and-a-half mark.
- Trent Grisham (52%, Yes 52¢ / No 49¢): Down a point, still New York's second-best hit price.
- Andrés Giménez (53%, Yes 54¢ / No 47¢): Down a point for Toronto's second baseman.
- George Lombard (51%, Yes 52¢ / No 49¢): Right at even money for the Yankees rookie.
- Myles Straw (51%, Yes 51¢ / No 50¢): Essentially a coin flip, in line with Straw's more speed-first profile at the bottom of Toronto's order.
- Austin Wells (42%, Yes 42¢ / No 59¢): Down a point, the lowest of the regular Yankees bats.
- Ryan McMahon (46%, Yes 47¢ / No 54¢): Below even money for New York's corner infielder.
- Spencer Jones (46%, Yes 47¢ / No 54¢): Matches McMahon.
- José Caballero (46%, Yes 46¢ / No 55¢): Rounds out the lower tier for New York.
Best MLB Player Props Today: Strikeouts, Total Bases, RBIs and Stolen Bases
Strikeouts
- Dylan Cease 9+ (49%, Yes 49¢ / No 52¢): Up 2 points, and for good reason. Cease enters with 191 strikeouts and the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball, and he's set to face a Yankees lineup carrying the American League's worst strikeout rate over the past month.
- Ryan Weathers 5+ (56%, Yes 56¢ / No 45¢): Down 3 points but still the market's favorite outcome for Weathers, who's coming off a start where he allowed just one run over 5.2 innings against Seattle.
Total Bases (2+)
- Luis García (38%, Yes 38¢ / No 63¢): Toronto's top price in this category.
- Ernie Clement (37%, Yes 38¢ / No 63¢): Close behind, consistent with Clement's high hit-probability number above.
- Ben Rice (36%, Yes 37¢ / No 65¢): New York's best total bases number.
- Alejandro Kirk (35%, Yes 36¢ / No 65¢): Solid, in line with Kirk's strong overall projection today.
- George Springer (35%, Yes 36¢ / No 65¢): Down 2 points but still mid-pack for Toronto.
- Brett Bateman (34%, Yes 35¢ / No 66¢): Matches Springer.
- Kazuma Okamoto (32%, Yes 33¢ / No 68¢): A middling number for Toronto's cleanup bat.
- Trent Grisham (32%, Yes 33¢ / No 68¢): New York's second-best total bases price.
- Heliot Ramos (30%, Yes 30¢ / No 71¢): Up a point overnight.
- Charles McAdoo (31%, Yes 32¢ / No 69¢): Priced up slightly following Saturday's multi-hit game.
- Austin Wells (25%, Yes 23¢ / No 78¢): Up a point, still on the lower end for New York.
- Andrés Giménez (24%, Yes 25¢ / No 76¢): One of Toronto's lower total bases prices.
- Ryan McMahon (26%, Yes 26¢ / No 75¢): Matched by Spencer Jones below.
- Spencer Jones (26%, Yes 26¢ / No 75¢): Ties McMahon for New York.
- George Lombard (28%, Yes 26¢ / No 76¢): A modest number for the Yankees rookie.
- José Caballero (20%, Yes 20¢ / No 81¢): The lowest Yankees price in this category.
- Myles Straw (22%, Yes 23¢ / No 78¢): Down a point, the lowest for Toronto.
RBIs (1+)
- George Springer (30%, Yes 31¢ / No 70¢): Toronto's top RBI price, fitting for a hitter who's often at the top of the Blue Jays' order when runs are driven in.
- Ernie Clement (29%, Yes 30¢ / No 71¢): Close behind Springer.
- Luis García (28%, Yes 29¢ / No 72¢): Tied with Kazuma Okamoto for the next tier down.
- Kazuma Okamoto (28%, Yes 29¢ / No 72¢): Matches García.
- Ben Rice (27%, Yes 28¢ / No 73¢): New York's best RBI number.
- Alejandro Kirk (27%, Yes 27¢ / No 74¢): Steady given his strong all-around projection today.
- Trent Grisham (27%, Yes 27¢ / No 74¢): Ties Kirk for the Yankees.
- Heliot Ramos (24%, Yes 25¢ / No 76¢): A mid-tier price for Toronto.
- Charles McAdoo (22%, Yes 23¢ / No 78¢): Up after driving in a run Saturday.
- Ryan McMahon (21%, Yes 22¢ / No 79¢): A modest number for New York.
- George Lombard (20%, Yes 21¢ / No 80¢): Matches Austin Wells for the Yankees.
- Austin Wells (20%, Yes 21¢ / No 80¢): Ties Lombard.
- Andrés Giménez (19%, Yes 20¢ / No 81¢): One of Toronto's lower RBI prices.
- Spencer Jones (19%, Yes 20¢ / No 81¢): Matches Giménez for New York.
- Brett Bateman (19%, Yes 20¢ / No 81¢): Rounds out the group at 19%.
- Myles Straw (18%, Yes 19¢ / No 82¢): The lowest Toronto RBI price.
- José Caballero (17%, Yes 18¢ / No 84¢): The board's lowest RBI number.
Stolen Bases (1+)
Two contracts in this category only have a Yes side actively priced, shown below without a paired No figure.
- José Caballero (19%, Yes 18¢ / No 83¢): By far the top number in this category, in line with Caballero's role as one of the more active basestealers on either roster.
- George Lombard (11%, Yes 12¢ / No 89¢): Up a point, the top Yankees price and a reflection of Lombard's speed profile as a rookie.
- Spencer Jones (10%, Yes 11¢ / No 90¢): Close behind Lombard.
- Andrés Giménez (8%, Yes 7¢ / No 94¢): Toronto's best number in this category outside of Caballero.
- Myles Straw (8%, Yes 9¢ / No 92¢): Matches Giménez, consistent with Straw's speed-first game.
- Luis García (8%, Yes 8¢ / No 93¢): Up 2 points overnight.
- Ben Rice (5%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢): A modest number for New York.
- George Springer (5%, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢): Matches Rice.
- Trent Grisham (5%, Yes 5¢ / No 96¢): Also in the low single digits.
- Charles McAdoo (Yes 5¢): Under 1%, one of two contracts on this board without an active No side priced.
- Ryan McMahon (Yes 5¢): Under 1%, the other contract showing only a Yes price.
- Brett Bateman (4%, Yes 6¢ / No 98¢): Toward the bottom of the board.
- Ernie Clement (3%, Yes 4¢ / No 97¢): Matches Heliot Ramos below.
- Heliot Ramos (3%, Yes 4¢ / No 97¢): Ties Clement.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
The single biggest driver on this board is the pitching matchup. Dylan Cease has been one of the American League's best starters all season, and his strikeout upside against a Yankees lineup that's whiffed at the AL's highest clip over the last month explains why his 9+ strikeout contract has climbed overnight and why New York's team total sits below Toronto's despite the Yankees' better overall record.
The other clear theme is New York's offensive freefall. With Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton all out at the same time, the Yankees have scored only two runs across their last two games in this series, and it shows across the Money Line, the team total, and nearly every individual hit and home run contract on the New York side of the board.
Toronto, by contrast, is riding real momentum, 13 wins in its last 19, both wins in this series, and a fresh push into the prediction markets conversation around its playoff odds as the wild card race tightens.
Worth watching as first pitch approaches: any late lineup change involving New York's injured bats would likely move the team total and several individual props quickly, so it's worth checking the board again close to game time.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays Predictions: Final Thoughts
Toronto enters Sunday's finale with real momentum, two straight wins over New York and a pitching advantage that the Kalshi board clearly recognizes in Toronto's Money Line price. New York still has the better record and remains a live series-flip threat, but until this offense wakes back up, the market is treating the Blue Jays as the side to beat. Check out the full range of prediction market apps if you want to compare this board against other platforms before first pitch.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Kalshi promo code?
The current Kalshi promo code is ACTION. Enter it when signing up to unlock the platform's current sign-up offer.
Who is favored in the Yankees vs Blue Jays series finale?
Kalshi's Money Line contract has Toronto priced as the favorite at 53%, with New York at 47%, largely on the strength of Toronto's Sunday starter, Dylan Cease.
Who are the probable starting pitchers for Sunday's game?
Toronto is starting right-hander Dylan Cease, while New York counters with left-hander Ryan Weathers.
What is the best MLB player prop on today's board?
Alejandro Kirk's Hits contract is the highest-priced individual prop on the board at 65%, reflecting his strong recent form and contact skills.
How did the first two games of this series go?
Toronto won both games, taking Friday's opener 3-1 behind Shane Bieber and Alejandro Kirk's home run, then winning 4-1 on Saturday after Charles McAdoo's go-ahead double.
How does Toronto's playoff picture look right now?
The Blue Jays have won 13 of their last 19 games and are pushing back into the mix for the final AL Wild Card spot as the stretch run heats up.
How do Kalshi event contracts work?
Each Kalshi contract pays out $1 if the specified outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn't. The Yes and No prices, quoted in cents, represent the market's implied probability of that outcome.
Why do some player prop contracts only show one price?
A handful of contracts on this board, including two of the Stolen Bases props, currently have only a Yes side actively priced. That's shown as a single figure rather than a paired Yes/No price.
When does this market resolve?
These contracts resolve once Sunday's game between the Yankees and Blue Jays reaches its official final result.
