The Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race both lean Democratic on Polymarket and Kalshi as voters head to the polls, with Jocelyn Benson at 94¢ on Polymarket and 93.4¢ on Kalshi and Abdul El-Sayed at 80¢ on both.
- Benson, John James, El-Sayed and Mike Rogers all have live Michigan Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, both list a Governor-Senate combo market, and Polymarket adds a Margin of Victory market for each race.
- The final El Sayed vs Rogers polls run from a 1-point race to an 11-point El-Sayed lead in NYT/Siena's survey, while the closing Benson vs James polls have Benson ahead by 4 to 13 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms while Michigan voters cast ballots on Tuesday, November 3, with polls open until 8 p.m. local time.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (8¢) | $1,250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Democrats by 6-9% | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93.4¢) | $107.07 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (7.3¢) | $1,369.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Democrats by 3-6% | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Michigan Governor Election and Michigan Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Michigan contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if that outcome happens and $0 if it does not.
The Michigan Governor election and Senate winner markets resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and Polymarket's board lists results as expected at 8 p.m.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price on the winner markets, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. They are approximations, since minor-party candidates also appear on Michigan's ballot and the Governor board still lists Mike Duggan at 1%.
The Margin of Victory contracts are different. They quote both a Yes and a No price on the board, so those figures are taken as shown.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, which makes this an open seat, and Polymarket's own label for it reads Safe D with Benson at 94¢.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 94¢ / NO 8¢)
Every closing poll has Benson ahead. NYT/Siena had her up 52% to 39% from October 23 to November 1, AtlasIntel had her up 53% to 45% and Poll Vault/Emerson had her up 50% to 46%, while the RealClearPolling average stands at 51.4% to 42.6%.
That 94¢ price covers every route to a Benson win, from a narrow finish to a double-digit romp, and the Margin of Victory contract below is where those outcomes separate.
John James (YES 8¢ / NO 94¢, +<1 pts)
James gained less than a point, and 8¢ is an 8% implied probability for the Trump-endorsed Republican. He has never won statewide, having lost the 2018 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow by about 6.5 points and the 2020 race to Gary Peters by 1.7.
Polymarket's board also still lists Duggan at 1% as an other candidate, even though the former Detroit mayor ended his independent campaign on May 21.
Democrats by 6-9% (YES 24¢ / NO 77¢)
Polymarket's Margin of Victory market prices a Democratic Governor win by 6 to 9 points at 24¢, a 24% implied probability. The RealClearPolling average of 8.8 points sits inside that bracket, but a 3-point window can only hold so much probability when closing polls run from Emerson's 4-point Benson lead to Siena's 13.
Whitmer's 2022 reelection margin of more than 10 points would land one bracket higher, in the 9-12% range that sits beside it on the board, while a Benson win by the 1.7 points Peters managed over James in 2020 would fall in the 0-3% bracket. Neither of those brackets is priced in the screenshots.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is the tighter of the two, and Polymarket's label for it is Likely D, with a polling range far wider than the Governor side.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 80¢ / NO 21¢, +1 pt)
El-Sayed gained 1 point to 80¢, an 80% implied probability, and the closing surveys explain most of it. NYT/Siena had him ahead 53% to 42%, AtlasIntel had him up 54% to 46% and Poll Vault/Emerson had him up 51% to 45%, with the RealClearPolling average at 5.3 points on Tuesday morning.
The El Sayed vs Rogers polls still carry a caveat the Governor polls do not. InsiderAdvantage had him ahead by just 1 point from October 21 to 22, and the ratings are cautious, with Cook and Sabato at Lean Democratic and Inside Elections at Tilt Democratic, according to Newsweek.
Mike Rogers (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢, -1 pt)
Rogers lost 1 point to 21¢, a 21% implied probability. His case rests on recent history, since he lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by 0.3 points and Donald Trump carried Michigan by about 1.4 points that year.
The campaign also took a late boost from Haley Stevens, the Democratic congresswoman who lost the August primary to El-Sayed and endorsed Rogers on Sunday.
Democrats by 3-6% (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢)
The Senate Margin of Victory market prices a Democratic win by 3 to 6 points at 25¢, a 25% implied probability, and that bracket holds the 5.3-point polling average.
A win in that range would be wider than Michigan's last two Senate results, Peters by 1.7 points in 2020 and Slotkin by 0.3 in 2024, though still short of Stabenow's 6.5-point win in 2018. The remaining probability is spread across the board's other brackets, including the 0-3% and 6-9% ranges shown beside it.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
🗳️ Where to Vote: Use the 'My Ballot' feature on Kalshi to find your local polling location and ballot info!
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with both Yes and No quoted on every line, so each price below comes straight off its board.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the board's live tag read 0.0% of the vote counted at the time of the screenshot, with $33,027,868 traded on the Senate market and $1,117,065 on the Governor market.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Kalshi quotes the Governor race to a tenth of a cent, and its Chance column reads 93.6% for Benson beside a 93.4¢ YES price.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 93.4¢ / NO 7¢, +0.1 pts)
Benson is priced at 93.4¢, an implied probability of roughly 93%, and the Chance column shows her up 0.1 points.
The price tracks the closing polls, every one of which has her ahead, though the Governor market is far shallower than the Senate board.
John James (YES 7.3¢ / NO 93.1¢, +0.7 pts)
James gained 0.7 points on the Chance column and is priced at 7.3¢, about a cent below his Polymarket price and a 7.3% implied probability.
Kalshi's board also lists Duggan at 0.1% on its chart, a leftover contract for a campaign that ended in May.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's Senate board is its deepest Michigan market by a wide margin, and it matches Polymarket on both candidates.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 80¢ / NO 21¢, +1 pt)
El-Sayed trades at 80¢, an 80% implied probability, with the Chance column up 1 point, so both exchanges agree on a four-in-five race even though the final El Sayed vs Rogers polls range from 1 to 11 points.
A Glengariff Group poll for The Detroit News gave him a 56-point lead among voters 18 to 29, compared with the 3-point edge Slotkin held with that group in Glengariff's 2024 polling, which makes young-voter turnout a central question.
Mike Rogers (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢, -1 pt)
Rogers is at 21¢, a 21% implied probability, with the Chance column showing 20%.
He closed a bus tour with a Rochester Hills rally alongside James, where supporters chanted for Stevens, according to WXYZ.
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Michigan Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two Michigan races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the heavy favorite at 78¢ on both boards, and a Benson win paired with a Rogers win is the main split-ticket path at 19¢ on both, while the two outcomes that need a James win trade at 7¢ or less.
Polymarket labels each line by party and Kalshi names the candidates, but the four pairings are the same. Kalshi's combo board has traded $132,636, and Polymarket's James and El-Sayed split ticket shows no live NO price.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 78¢ | NO 23¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 19¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 6¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | No bid | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 78¢ | NO 24¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 19¢ | NO 84¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 7¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Benson sits at YES 94¢ on Polymarket and YES 93.4¢ on Kalshi, while El-Sayed is at YES 80¢ on both.
The underdogs show the same picture. James trades at YES 8¢ on Polymarket and YES 7.3¢ on Kalshi, and Rogers is at YES 21¢ on both.
The sharper split is between the exchanges and the forecasters. In the Michigan Governor election, Benson vs James polls average an 8.8-point Benson lead and MultiState's consensus rating is Lean D, yet neither board has her below YES 93.4¢, while El Sayed vs Rogers polls average 5.3 points and the ratings are no firmer than Lean Democratic, yet both Senate boards price him at YES 80¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design. Polymarket adds Margin of Victory contracts, such as YES 25¢ on a Democratic Senate win by 3 to 6 points, that Kalshi's boards here do not carry, and Kalshi's Senate market is far deeper than its Governor and combo markets.
Michigan Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate board nudged toward El-Sayed. He gained 1 point on Polymarket and on Kalshi's Chance column while Rogers lost 1 on both, and the Michigan Governor election barely moved, with James up less than a point on Polymarket and 0.7 on Kalshi's Chance column.
The last El Sayed vs Rogers polls leaned his way. NYT/Siena (53-42), AtlasIntel (54-46) and Poll Vault/Emerson (51-45) all put him up 6 to 11 points, while InsiderAdvantage's 1-point result from late October is among the narrowest of the recent surveys.
Benson vs James polls point the same way with a wider cushion. Siena had her up 13, AtlasIntel 8 and Poll Vault/Emerson 4, so even the narrowest closing survey still has her ahead.
Turnout is the last variable. State data showed more than 2.3 million Michigan ballots cast by Monday afternoon, about 743,000 at early voting sites and more than 1.5 million absentee, and WOOD-TV put the total at about 33% of active registered voters by Tuesday morning. Ballot requests were already running 17% ahead of 2022's pace two weeks out, according to the Secretary of State.
Both campaigns spent Monday chasing those voters. El-Sayed rallied with Elizabeth Warren at Eastern Michigan University and toured Detroit with the musician Common, Rogers wrapped his bus tour in Rochester Hills with James, and Republicans argued in the final days that the polls undercount their support, according to the Washington Times.
The margin markets add a second read on the same polls. A Democratic Senate win by 3 to 6 points at 25¢ and a Democratic Governor win by 6 to 9 points at 24¢ each hold their race's polling average, yet neither is priced above 25¢, which shows how widely traders spread the possible outcomes.
The combo boards add one more read. The Democratic sweep at 78¢ on both exchanges trails El-Sayed's standalone 80¢ by only 2¢, and adding the two Benson pairings gives 97¢, above Benson's own 94¢ on Polymarket and 93.4¢ on Kalshi, a gap worth discounting given Kalshi's combo board has traded $132,636 against $33,027,868 on its Senate board.
Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. local time, with four Upper Peninsula counties in the Central time zone closing at 9 p.m. Eastern, and absentee ballots must be received by 8 p.m. to count. The first returns are the likeliest trigger for a repricing, and Michigan law requires an automatic recount when a statewide race is decided by 0.1% or less.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (8¢) | $1,250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Democrats by 6-9% | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93.4¢) | $107.07 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (7.3¢) | $1,369.86 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Democrats by 3-6% | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Final Thoughts
Michigan reaches Election Day with two Democratic-leaning boards that carry very different risk: a Michigan Governor race where Benson trades near 94¢ and every closing poll has her ahead, and a Michigan Senate race where El-Sayed holds 80¢ on both exchanges even though the final polls range from a 1-point race to an 11-point lead.
The margin markets show the same shape, with neither the 3-to-6-point Senate bracket nor the 6-to-9-point Governor bracket priced above 25¢. Turnout and the first returns after the polls close are the last things left to move the board.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Jocelyn Benson is trading at 94¢ on Polymarket and 93.4¢ on Kalshi, while John James sits at 8¢ and 7.3¢. In the Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed is at 80¢ on both exchanges and Mike Rogers is at 21¢ on both.
What do the latest Benson vs James polls show?
Every closing survey has Benson ahead. NYT/Siena had her up 52% to 39% from October 23 to November 1, AtlasIntel had her up 53% to 45%, and Poll Vault/Emerson had her up 50% to 46%. The RealClearPolling average is 51.4% to 42.6%.
What do the latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls show?
NYT/Siena has El-Sayed ahead 53% to 42%, AtlasIntel has him up 54% to 46%, Poll Vault/Emerson has him up 51% to 45%, and InsiderAdvantage had a 47% to 46% race in late October. The RealClearPolling average was 5.3 points on Tuesday morning.
How do Benson vs James polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling and the ratings suggest, with both exchanges keeping Benson at 93.4¢ or higher even though her average lead is 8.8 points and MultiState's consensus rating is Lean D.
Are El Sayed vs Rogers polls moving before Election Day?
The final surveys mostly favor El-Sayed by 6 to 11 points, while the RealClearPolling average sits at 5.3 points, and both exchanges' boards show him up 1 point to 80¢.
What are Polymarket's Margin of Victory markets for Michigan?
They let traders bet on the size of a win. A Democratic Senate win by 3 to 6 points trades at 25¢, and a Democratic Governor win by 6 to 9 points trades at 24¢, so neither bracket is priced above 25¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Michigan Governor election slightly differently?
The boards match at 80¢ for El-Sayed and 21¢ for Rogers and sit within a cent of each other on Benson and James. Small gaps like Benson at 94¢ versus 93.4¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Michigan Governor-Senate combo bets show?
A Benson and El-Sayed sweep trades at 78¢ on both exchanges, a Benson and Rogers split ticket at 19¢ on both, a James and Rogers sweep at 6¢ on Polymarket and 7¢ on Kalshi, and a James and El-Sayed split ticket at 3¢ on Polymarket and 2¢ on Kalshi.
When do Michigan polls close and when are results expected?
Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, though four Upper Peninsula counties in the Central time zone close at 9 p.m. Eastern. Polymarket's board lists results as expected at 8 p.m., and absentee ballots must be received by 8 p.m. to count.
How do I trade the Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before the result is final.
