Netflix stock is grinding through another red session, and Polymarket traders have all but called the finish. With NFLX sitting below its price-to-beat of $73.16 and just over three hours left in the July 31 trading day, the daily up-or-down contract has swung hard to one side.
Here is what the market says about where the Netflix stock price closes today, and why the crowd is so one-sided.
NFLX Daily Up or Down Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket event contracts are priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price maps directly to the market's implied probability. A "Yes" position settles at $1.00 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, and traders can buy or sell before the market resolves.
This market is binary: it resolves on Netflix's official closing price for July 31, 2026. "Up" pays out if NFLX finishes above the $73.16 price to beat, and "Down" pays if it closes at or below that line. The clock is the key variable, because there is no path to a payout once the closing bell rings.
Down (98%, 98¢)
The Down contract is trading at 98¢, implying a 98% probability that Netflix closes lower on the day. With the NFLX stock price changing hands around $72.68, comfortably below the $73.16 line, and only a few hours left, traders see almost no route back above the mark.
The pricing also reflects the bigger picture. Netflix has been the market's punching bag in 2026, down more than 20% year to date and roughly 38% over the past year, so a red close fits squarely with the trend.
Up (6%, 6¢)
The Up contract sits at just 6¢, a 6% implied probability. Buyers here are wagering on a late-session reversal that drags NFLX back above $73.16 before the close.
It is a long shot. The stock traded in a $70.55 to $73.32 band on the day and never built momentum above the line. Still, 6¢ is the kind of price lottery-ticket traders like, since a single buy program or headline could flip a thin, low-volume move in the final hour.
The key numbers driving the board:
- Price to beat ($73.16): the line NFLX must close above for "Up" to pay. The stock has spent the session under it.
- Where NFLX is trading (~$72.68): below the line and near the middle of the day's range, giving Down its 98¢ lock.
- Time remaining (~3 hours): not much runway for a reversal, which is exactly why the spread is this wide.
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Netflix Stock Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The one-sided board is a downstream effect of a brutal stretch for the stock. Netflix reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 16, beating on EPS at $0.80 with revenue up 13% to $12.56 billion, but the print was overshadowed by soft third-quarter guidance of roughly $12.86 billion against a near-$13 billion consensus.
The reaction was severe. Shares dropped around 7% to 10% in the sessions that followed, sinking into the high-$60s and deepening a year-to-date decline of more than 20%. That guidance miss reframed the story around decelerating growth rather than the beat itself.
Netflix has since clawed back into the low $70s and closed near $73.63 on July 30, but it could not hold above that level on July 31. Recent catalysts, including a Walking Dead licensing deal with AMC, a $200 million commitment for FIFA Women's World Cup rights, and accelerated buybacks, have not been enough to reignite the bulls or push the stock back over the line intraday.
The shape of the market is a near-lock, not a contest. The only thing that reprices the Up contract is a sharp, late-day rally that reclaims $73.16 before the close, and with each passing minute that probability shrinks toward zero.
How to Trade NFLX Daily Up or Down on Polymarket
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
NFLX Daily Up or Down: Final Thoughts
At 98¢ for Down and 6¢ for Up, this is a market pricing a near-certain red close rather than a live coin flip. The odds are less about today's tape and more about a stock that has spent all of 2026 fighting a downtrend it cannot shake.
The only variable left is the final hour: unless NFLX stages a rally back above $73.16 before the bell, the crowd's near-unanimous read holds.
NFLX Daily Up or Down FAQs
What is the price to beat for the Netflix market today?
The price to beat is $73.16. Netflix has to close above that level on July 31, 2026 for the "Up" contract to pay out, and at or below it for "Down" to win.
What is the Netflix stock price today?
NFLX has traded in a $70.55 to $73.32 range on July 31, changing hands around $72.68 with a few hours left in the session, which keeps it below the $73.16 price to beat.
Why is the Down contract so heavily favored at 98¢?
The stock has spent the entire day below the price to beat with limited time to recover, and it fits a broader 2026 downtrend. The market prices that as a 98% chance NFLX closes lower on the day.
Can the Up contract at 6¢ still win?
Yes, but only if Netflix rallies back above $73.16 before the close. At 6¢, the market treats a late reversal as a long shot, though a sharp final-hour move could still flip a thin trade.
Why has Netflix stock fallen so much in 2026?
NFLX is down more than 20% year to date after light Q3 guidance from its July 16 earnings overshadowed an EPS beat, shifting investor focus to slowing growth. The stock is off roughly 38% over the past year.
How does the Polymarket NFLX up or down market resolve?
It resolves on Netflix's official closing price for the trading day. "Up" settles at $1.00 per contract if NFLX closes above the price to beat, while "Down" settles at $1.00 if it closes at or below that line.
How do I trade the Netflix daily market on Polymarket?
Create a Polymarket account, fund it, and buy a "Yes" or "No" contract on the up-or-down market. Contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, and you can buy or sell your position any time before the market resolves.
