The Ohio governor race 2026 and Ohio Senate race 2026 both tilt Democratic on Polymarket and Kalshi, even though Donald Trump carried the state by 11 points in 2024.
Acton vs Ramaswamy polls mostly favor the Democrat and Husted vs Brown polls run from a dead heat to an eight-point Brown lead, while both exchanges also list a Governor-Senate combo market.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Ohio governor election and Ohio Senate election odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Governor Race | Polymarket | Amy Acton | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Governor Race | Polymarket | Vivek Ramaswamy | YES (23¢) | $434.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Governor Race | Kalshi | Amy Acton | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ohio Governor Race | Kalshi | Vivek Ramaswamy | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Polymarket | Sherrod Brown | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Polymarket | Jon Husted | YES (37¢) | $270.27 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Kalshi | Sherrod Brown | YES (66¢) | $151.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Kalshi | Jon Husted | YES (35¢) | $285.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Ohio Governor Election and Ohio Senate Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Ohio contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Ohio governor race 2026 market and the Ohio Senate election market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell shares at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Ohio Governor Race 2026
Polymarket prices Amy Acton as a better than 3-to-1 favorite, a number that runs ahead of a polling picture where Decision Desk HQ's average has her up roughly four points.
Amy Acton (YES 79¢ / NO 23¢, +8 pts)
Acton gained 8 points, a move that follows a mid-October price of 72% and a run of public surveys that mostly lean her way.
CNN/SSRS has her ahead 50-42 among likely voters, New York Times/Siena has it 49-45 and Suffolk University has it 50-41, which is why Acton vs Ramaswamy polls anchor the Democratic price.
An Acton win would be the first Democratic victory in an Ohio governor election since Ted Strickland in 2006, and Republicans have held the office since 2010.
Vivek Ramaswamy (YES 23¢ / NO 79¢, -7 pts)
Ramaswamy slid 7 points even after landing his best poll in weeks, a 45-43 edge among likely voters in an October 5-6 survey.
He has endorsements from Trump, JD Vance and Gov. Mike DeWine plus a $25 million personal loan behind his campaign, and Trump rallied with him in Youngstown on October 12.
Ohio Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is tighter, with Polymarket treating Sherrod Brown as a clear but not commanding favorite in the special election to finish Vance's old term.
Sherrod Brown (YES 64¢ / NO 37¢)
Brown is trying to win back the seat he lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024, and recent Husted vs Brown polls have mostly gone his way.
Marist has him up 51-43 among registered voters, Suffolk University and USA Today have him ahead 47-44 among likely voters, and a recent Bowling Green State University survey had him up 48-45.
He has also made data centers and electricity costs a central part of his case against Husted.
Jon Husted (YES 37¢ / NO 64¢)
Husted is the appointed incumbent, tapped by DeWine in 2025 after Vance became vice president, and he still has polling to point to.
Quantus Insights had the race at 45.6% for Brown and 45.3% for Husted, and New York Times/Siena gave Husted a 50-47 edge in June, which helps explain why his price sits at 37¢.
Trump campaigned for him in Youngstown, and Republicans are counting on turnout to close the gap.
Ohio Governor Election and Ohio Senate Election: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts settle on the winner of the November 3 general election, and more than $3.5 million has already traded on the Governor market alone.
Ohio Governor Race 2026
On the Ohio governor race 2026 board, Kalshi leaves a little more room for a Ramaswamy upset than Polymarket does, with Acton priced two cents lower.
Amy Acton (YES 77¢ / NO 24¢, +4 pts)
Acton gained 4 points, climbing from a 68% price in mid-October as Democrats pushed for a late statewide turnout.
The CNN poll gave her a 27-point lead among independents and showed her drawing 7% of Republicans, compared with 2% of Democrats for Ramaswamy.
Forecasters aren't treating the race as settled, though, since Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rated it a toss-up.
Vivek Ramaswamy (YES 24¢ / NO 77¢, -4 pts)
Ramaswamy lost 4 points, but 24¢ is still a cent above his Polymarket price, and Republicans have been working hard to defend the state.
Vance appeared in Lima urging voters to back both Ramaswamy and Husted, while Barack Obama is set to counter with a Cleveland rally for Acton and Brown on October 24.
Early voting began October 6, and no debate between Acton and Ramaswamy was scheduled as of mid-October.
Ohio Senate Race 2026
Kalshi is a bit friendlier to Brown than Polymarket is, but the Ohio Senate race 2026 is still the closer of the two contests.
Sherrod Brown (YES 66¢ / NO 36¢, -1 pts)
Brown slipped a point, a small dip that fits tighter surveys like the Quantus poll that had him ahead by just 0.3 points.
The favorability gap is narrow too, with Suffolk finding Brown viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 44%.
Jon Husted (YES 35¢ / NO 66¢, +1 pts)
Husted gained a point, and Trump's October 12 Youngstown rally shows how hard Republicans are working to hold the seat.
According to a memo leaked to Axios, the National Republican Senatorial Committee believes private polling shows Husted pulling away once voters hear Brown's record, but public Husted vs Brown polls haven't shown that yet.
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Ohio Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two Ohio races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the clear favorite on each board, a Republican sweep is the next most likely outcome, and the split-ticket combos are the long shots, with Acton and Husted well ahead of Ramaswamy and Brown.
Polymarket and Kalshi each price all four possible pairings, so the table below covers every combination on both exchanges.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win (Dem sweep) | YES 66¢ | NO 35¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win (GOP sweep) | YES 23¢ | NO 78¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Amy Acton and Jon Husted win (split ticket) | YES 16¢ | NO 85¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Vivek Ramaswamy and Sherrod Brown win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown win (Dem sweep) | YES 66¢ | NO 35¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted win (GOP sweep) | YES 21¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Amy Acton and Jon Husted win (split ticket) | YES 16¢ | NO 85¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Vivek Ramaswamy and Sherrod Brown win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Ohio Governor and Senate Races
The two boards agree on every favorite. Acton sits at YES 79¢ on Polymarket and YES 77¢ on Kalshi, while Brown is at YES 64¢ and YES 66¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Ramaswamy trades at YES 23¢ on Polymarket and YES 24¢ on Kalshi, and Husted is at YES 37¢ and YES 35¢.
Where the platforms differ is on which favorite looks stronger: Polymarket is more confident in Acton and Kalshi is more confident in Brown, though gaps of 2¢ are small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The combo boards add a quirk. Polymarket's Democratic sweep sits at YES 66¢, two cents above Brown's standalone price of YES 64¢, even though a sweep requires a Brown win, which points to thin combo order books. Kalshi's combo market has traded only about $79,000.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Acton vs Ramaswamy polls have mostly shown the Democrat up four to nine points, yet one October 5-6 survey had Ramaswamy ahead 45-43, and the markets still treat the Ohio governor election as a clear Acton lean.
Husted vs Brown polls show a wider spread, from Marist's 51-43 Brown lead to Quantus's near tie, and both Ohio Senate election boards price Brown at YES 64¢ or better.
Ohio Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Ohio governor election board is where the money moved. Polymarket added 8 points to Acton and took 7 off Ramaswamy, while Kalshi moved 4 points each way, a sign that traders are leaning into the Democrat's polling run.
The Senate board is calmer. Kalshi trimmed Brown by a point and added one to Husted, and Polymarket's Senate board didn't show a move, with Marist's 51-43 Brown lead sitting beside Quantus's near tie.
The combo boards shifted the most. Kalshi's Republican sweep fell 10 points and its Democratic sweep gained 5, while Polymarket's Republican sweep dropped 5 and its Democratic sweep added 3, a pattern that mirrors the Governor repricing.
The next round of Acton vs Ramaswamy polls and Husted vs Brown polls is the likeliest trigger for another repricing, along with Obama's October 24 Cleveland rally and early voting turnout, which has been running since October 6.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Governor Race | Polymarket | Amy Acton | YES (79¢) | $126.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Governor Race | Polymarket | Vivek Ramaswamy | YES (23¢) | $434.78 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Governor Race | Kalshi | Amy Acton | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ohio Governor Race | Kalshi | Vivek Ramaswamy | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Polymarket | Sherrod Brown | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Polymarket | Jon Husted | YES (37¢) | $270.27 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Kalshi | Sherrod Brown | YES (66¢) | $151.52 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ohio Senate Race | Kalshi | Jon Husted | YES (35¢) | $285.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Ohio Governor Race 2026 and Ohio Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Ohio Governor Race 2026 and Ohio Senate Race 2026: Final Thoughts
Ohio is a state Trump won by 11 points that now has two Democratic-leaning boards: a Governor market that has moved decisively toward Acton and an Ohio Senate race 2026 market that gives Brown a smaller edge in a race the polls show as close.
Watch the combo boards for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Democratic sweep is the dominant outcome on both exchanges at 66¢, and the final stretch of polling and early voting is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Ohio Governor Race and Ohio Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Ohio governor race 2026 odds?
Amy Acton is trading at 79¢ on Polymarket and 77¢ on Kalshi, while Vivek Ramaswamy sits at 23¢ on Polymarket and 24¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Ohio Senate election?
Sherrod Brown is the favorite at 64¢ on Polymarket and 66¢ on Kalshi, with Jon Husted priced at 37¢ and 35¢, respectively.
What do the latest Acton vs Ramaswamy polls show?
Most recent surveys favor Acton, including CNN/SSRS at 50-42, New York Times/Siena at 49-45 and Suffolk University at 50-41, though an October 5-6 survey had Ramaswamy ahead 45-43.
What do the latest Husted vs Brown polls show?
Marist has Brown ahead 51-43 among registered voters, Suffolk University and USA Today have him up 47-44 among likely voters, and Quantus Insights has the race at 45.6% to 45.3% in Brown's favor.
How do Acton vs Ramaswamy polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
Decision Desk HQ's polling average has Acton up roughly four points, while the exchanges price her between 77¢ and 79¢, so the markets are more confident than the polling average suggests.
Are Husted vs Brown polls tightening before Election Day?
Results vary by pollster. Fox News had Brown up eight points in August and Marist has him up eight among registered voters, while Quantus shows a near tie and New York Times/Siena had Husted ahead 50-47 in June.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Ohio governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a couple of cents of each other. Small gaps like Acton at 79¢ versus 77¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Ohio Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Both exchanges price a Democratic sweep at 66¢. A Republican sweep is 23¢ on Polymarket and 21¢ on Kalshi, an Acton and Husted split is 16¢ on both, and a Ramaswamy and Brown split is 2¢ on both.
When did early voting start for the Ohio Senate race 2026?
Early voting in Ohio began October 6, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
How do I trade the Ohio governor race and Ohio Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
