NBA Picks Today, Predictions & Odds | NBA Best Bets & Player Props Today (October 21)

The Polymarket promo code (ACTION) is perfect to use on a full 11-game Wednesday slate, and this rundown of the best NBA picks today covers one trade from every game on the board.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo makes his Heat debut and LaMelo Ball makes his Timberwolves debut, while Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard both return from Achilles injuries on the same night.
• Toronto (79%) and Houston (78%) are the biggest moneyline favorites on Polymarket's board, while three games sit at near coin-flip moneyline prices.

Polymarket is one of the best prediction markets for NBA props, so here is our full table of the best NBA bets today before we break down every game.

Read our dedicated Polymarket review to learn more, or check out more prediction market promo codes for other platforms.

Best NBA Picks Today: Our Top Polymarket Picks for the October 21 Slate

Every pick below is a real trade we would make after redeeming the Polymarket promo code, from the best prediction market apps to our full NBA coverage, and together they make up our best NBA player props today.

Use Polymarket promo code ACTION and Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!

These NBA odds today move quickly once lineups are official, so every price below reflects the board as it stands right now.

Hawks vs Magic Prediction

Atlanta won 46 games and the Southeast Division last season before losing to the Knicks in six games in the first round, and Jalen Johnson is now the face of the franchise.

Orlando won 45 games and pushed Detroit to seven games in the first round, and it opens at home under new head coach Sean Sweeney.

Best Points, Rebounds and Assists Prop Today – Jalen Johnson

Johnson averaged 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists in 72 games last season, which adds up to 40.7 and puts this line almost exactly on his average.

He also set a franchise record with 13 triple-doubles last year, and he is the focal point of an Atlanta offense that traded Trae Young to Washington in January.

At an average price of 50.84¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 197 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. Polymarket's board shows 50%, but the ticket fills at that higher average price, so we use it in the table.

• If Johnson reaches 40 combined points, rebounds and assists: this ticket returns $190.21.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 1.9x return on a number that sits right on his season average.

Bucks vs Wizards Prediction

Washington won just 17 games last season, but it added No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa and surrounded Trae Young with Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George.

Milwaukee begins the post-Giannis era after sending Antetokounmpo to Miami, and Polymarket has the home Wizards as 63% favorites.

Best Assists Prop Today – Trae Young

Young has averaged 9.8 assists per game across eight seasons, so 12 is a real stretch, which is why this ticket pays close to 3x.

He is the primary creator for a young Washington roster, and the total of 239.5 is one of the higher numbers on tonight's board.

At an average price of 32.49¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 308 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.

• If Young dishes out 12 or more assists: this ticket returns $294.03.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 2.9x return, the second-biggest payout on the slate.

Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction

Two blockbuster trades collide in Miami, with Giannis Antetokounmpo making his Heat debut and LaMelo Ball making his Timberwolves debut next to Anthony Edwards.

Miami pairs Antetokounmpo with Bam Adebayo in a huge frontcourt, and Antetokounmpo is 15-7 against Minnesota in his career, averaging 23 points.

Best Points Prop Today – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo averaged 27.6 points in an injury-shortened 36-game season in Milwaukee last year, so 30 asks him to beat his own recent average.

He averaged 15.7 points in just 18.6 minutes across three preseason games, which projects well if his minutes climb in a nationally televised home debut.

At an average price of 45.57¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 219 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. Polymarket's board shows 45%, but the ticket fills at an average of 45.57¢, the price used in the table.

• If Antetokounmpo scores 30 or more points: this ticket returns $211.43.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A 2.1x return makes this one of the best NBA picks today for debut-night upside.

Hornets vs Nets Prediction

Charlotte won 44 games and lost the play-in game to Orlando last season, and it opens without Kon Knueppel (hamstring) and Coby White (calf).

Brooklyn is built around Julius Randle and Michael Porter Jr., with No. 6 overall pick Mikel Brown Jr. in the mix, and the Nets beat Charlotte in a preseason meeting earlier this month.

Best Three-Pointers Prop Today – Grayson Allen

Allen averaged 3.1 made threes in 28.8 minutes across 51 games last season, so this line sits right on his average.

With Knueppel and White out, Allen should see extra shot volume, and he went 3-for-3 from deep in 14 minutes against these same Nets in the preseason opener.

He missed three straight preseason games with knee soreness but is not listed on the injury report for Wednesday, so confirm his status before tip-off.

At an average price of 52.44¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 191 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.

• If Allen makes three or more threes: this ticket returns $184.60.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 1.8x return on a near coin-flip number, which makes it one of the best NBA bets today for a safer ticket.

Bulls vs Raptors Prediction

Kawhi Leonard makes his Raptors debut in the season opener, returning to the franchise he led to the 2019 title after the Clippers traded him for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and picks.

Polymarket's NBA odds today have Toronto at 79%, and the Raptors swept Chicago in all three meetings last season. The Bulls overhauled their backcourt at the trade deadline.

Best Points Prop Today – Kawhi Leonard

Leonard earned All-Star and All-NBA honors last season at age 34 after leading the Clippers through an unlikely turnaround, so the scoring ability is not in question.

The risk is workload, since he missed the first two preseason games and Toronto plans to monitor him all year, which matters in a game where Polymarket has the Raptors laying 10.5 points.

At an average price of 52¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 192 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.

• If Leonard scores 25 or more points: this ticket returns $186.09.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 1.9x return on a star who is priced as a coin flip.

Pacers vs Pelicans Prediction

Tyrese Haliburton plays his first regular-season game in 486 days after tearing his Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, and he says he is at 100% with no restrictions.

Indiana went 19-63 last year and added center Ivica Zubac, but it will be without T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith (hamstrings) in New Orleans.

Best Three-Pointers Prop Today – Tyrese Haliburton

Haliburton hit three three-pointers in just seven minutes of Game 7 before the injury, and Indiana is short two rotation players here.

He scored 24 points at Oklahoma City and 17 against Milwaukee in the final two exhibitions after an ankle tweak, and head coach Rick Carlisle has said he will monitor the pacing.

At an average price of 37.75¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 265 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. Polymarket's board shows 37%, but the ticket fills at an average of 37.75¢, the price used in the table.

• If Haliburton makes four or more threes: this ticket returns $253.90.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 2.5x return and one of the best NBA player props today for comeback-story upside.

Jazz vs Grizzlies Prediction

Jaren Jackson Jr. returns to Memphis as a member of the Jazz, after the Grizzlies traded him to Utah on Feb. 3 in an eight-player deal.

Memphis opens its post-Ja Morant era with rookie Cameron Boozer and a healthy Zach Edey, while Utah counters with No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson.

Best Points Prop Today – Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jackson played just three games for Utah before knee surgery ended his season, and injuries limited him to 48 games overall.

He should get shots alongside Lauri Markkanen and Peterson, but he was in foul trouble throughout the preseason, which is the main risk to this number.

At an average price of 25.87¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 387 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. Polymarket's board shows 25%, but the ticket fills at an average of 25.87¢, the price used in the table.

• If Jackson scores 25 or more points: this ticket returns $367.57.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 3.7x return, the biggest payout on tonight's slate and the boldest of our best NBA predictions today.

Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction

Houston won 52 games last season but lost in the first round with Kevin Durant limited to one playoff game and Fred VanVleet out all year, and it enters this opener healthy with VanVleet back from a torn ACL.

Dallas is led by reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg and a returning Kyrie Irving, but it is without Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama and Caleb Martin.

Best Points Prop Today – Kevin Durant

With VanVleet back to handle playmaking, Durant can focus on scoring, and he dropped 29 points in his Rockets debut a year ago.

Houston is a heavy favorite, so the risk is a blowout that trims his minutes, especially with the team managing a 38-year-old Durant.

At an average price of 47¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 213 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes. Polymarket's board shows 46%, but the ticket fills at an average of 47¢, the price used in the table.

• If Durant scores 25 or more points: this ticket returns $205.23.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is just over a 2x return on one of the league's most reliable scorers.

Warriors vs Lakers Prediction

Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves lead a rebuilt Lakers team that lost LeBron James to Philadelphia and added defenders like Quentin Grimes and Matisse Thybulle.

Stephen Curry is listed as probable with a right ankle sprain, while Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are out for Golden State.

Best Rebounds Prop Today – Luka Dončić

Golden State is projected to lean on Draymond Green at center with Porzingis out, which should leave defensive rebounds available for Dončić.

With LeBron now in Philadelphia, Dončić should also take on more of the Lakers' possessions and boards.

At an average price of 51¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 196 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.

• If Dončić grabs eight or more rebounds: this ticket returns $189.62.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 1.9x return on a big guard with a clear path to the glass.

Suns vs Trail Blazers Prediction

Damian Lillard plays his first regular-season game in more than a year after rupturing his Achilles in the 2025 playoffs, and he does it in Portland next to newly acquired Ja Morant.

The Suns were swept by the Thunder in the first round last year and are without center Mark Williams, while Portland has Deni Avdija listed as questionable.

Best Three-Pointers Prop Today – Damian Lillard

Lillard is one of the most prolific high-volume three-point shooters in league history, and he is expected to start in the backcourt next to Morant.

The risk is rust after a long layoff, and Portland also has to juggle a guard-heavy lineup.

At an average price of 38.34¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 261 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.

• If Lillard makes four or more threes: this ticket returns $250.12.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 2.5x return, which makes this one of the best NBA player props today for a shooter who lives on this kind of volume.

Kings vs Clippers Prediction

The Clippers finished 42-40 last season, lost the play-in game to Golden State and traded Kawhi Leonard to Toronto.

With Brandon Ingram out with a partially torn Achilles, the offense runs through Darius Garland, while Sacramento starts lottery rookie Darius Acuff Jr. and reportedly lost Ben Simmons to an Achilles injury in practice.

Best Points Prop Today – Darius Garland

Garland averaged 19.9 points and 6.4 assists in 19 games after the Harden trade and scored 41 against Dallas in March, so a 25-point night is within reach.

He scored 15 points in 15 minutes in the preseason opener, making all four of his shots.

At an average price of 45¢, a $100 buy works out to roughly 222 shares, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.

• If Garland scores 25 or more points: this ticket returns $214.04.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That is roughly a 2.1x return for a guard who now owns the first option role.

NBA Odds Today: What's Moving the Market

Prediction markets and prices move for several reasons, and the biggest swing in the NBA odds today is Hornets vs Nets, where Charlotte's moneyline climbed nine points to 52% and Brooklyn's spread price fell 11 points to 46%.

Grayson Allen's clean injury report status after a knee scare may be part of that story, though Polymarket does not show the reason behind any move.

Elsewhere, the over in Timberwolves vs Heat dropped eight points to 49% at 240.5, and Toronto's spread price rose six points to 50% at 10.5. Every other price on the board moved by four points or less.

Those shifts are one reason our best NBA predictions today lean on player props instead of sides, since individual stat lines depend less on the spread and more on role, minutes and health.

How to Trade the Best NBA Player Props Today on Polymarket

Ready to get in on these 11 trades? Here is exactly how to claim the bonus and start trading tonight's board:

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
• When you're ready, sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION to get started!

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Best NBA Bets Today: Final Thoughts

Eleven games, eleven trades, and a board that leans on stars returning from long layoffs or starting over in new places, with Giannis, Haliburton, Lillard and Kawhi all featured in our best NBA picks today.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the longest shot among the best NBA bets today at roughly 3.7x, while Allen, Leonard and Dončić are the closest to coin flips at roughly 1.9x.

Check the injury reports before tip-off, since several of these players are coming back from long absences or minor ailments, and treat our best NBA predictions today as a starting point rather than a guarantee.

Best NBA Predictions Today: Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What Are the Best NBA Picks Today on Polymarket?

Our best NBA picks today include Jalen Johnson 40+ points, rebounds and assists, Kawhi Leonard 25+ points and Kevin Durant 25+ points, with one trade from every game on the 11-game slate.

What Are the Best NBA Player Props Today?

The best NBA player props today on our board run from Trae Young 12+ assists and Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ points to Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard 4+ three-pointers, plus Luka Dončić 8+ rebounds.

What Are the Best NBA Predictions Today?

Our best NBA predictions today lean on veterans in featured roles, with Giannis Antetokounmpo's Heat debut and Damian Lillard's return as the headline storylines, and Toronto and Houston the biggest favorites at 79% and 78%.

What Are the Best NBA Bets Today?

The best NBA bets today range from coin-flip prices like Grayson Allen 3+ three-pointers to longshots like Jaren Jackson Jr. 25+ points, which pays roughly 3.7x on a winning ticket.

What Are the NBA Odds Today on Polymarket?

Polymarket's NBA odds today have Toronto at 79% and Houston at 78% as the biggest moneyline favorites, while Minnesota vs Miami, Charlotte vs Brooklyn and Utah vs Memphis are near coin flips.

How Do I Use the Polymarket Promo Code for NBA Props?

Create a Polymarket account, make a qualifying deposit and enter the promo code shown in this article, then trade any of the Yes or No contracts above.

How Do Polymarket NBA Player Prop Contracts Work?

Each contract resolves Yes if the player reaches the stated stat line in that game and No if he does not. Every share pays out one dollar if your side is correct and nothing if it is not.

When Do Tonight's NBA Markets Resolve?

Each contract resolves once its game is final, based on official NBA box score data.