This time, the NFL betting trends won out. Casinos and sportsbooks are "over"joyed by the number of "unders" that hit on the first NFL Sunday.
The first weekend of the 2025 NFL season brought unexpectedly favorable outcomes for casinos and sportsbooks, largely thanks to a distinctive trend where nearly every game scored under the projected point totals.
The Bills and Ravens game cashed the over on Sunday Night Football. Ironically, a game with one of the lowest totals on the day. The Jets and the Steelers ended up with the second-highest total of the day at 66 points. Buffalo and Baltimore combined for 81 points in their game.
Why Casinos Won Big on NFL Opening Weekend
When a league that is predicated on passing has a day like it did on Sunday, typically the casinos and sportsbooks will win out. Why?
Point Totals: Out of the first 12 Sunday games, 11 ended with total scores less than anticipated by bookmakers. This "Under" trend proved profitable for sportsbooks, where bettors typically prefer wagering on the "Over."
NFL Betting Trends: Professional bettors, often referred to as "sharp" money, leaned towards the "Under," whereas the general public favored the "Over." This discrepancy boosted profits for sportsbooks.
Spread Movement: Although some games experienced late line movements due to significant betting activity, these shifts did not alter the favorable outcomes for sportsbooks in terms of point totals.
Understanding NFL Betting Trends
NFL betting trends are patterns in how people bet on games. They come from the behavior of everyday bettors and professional gamblers. By keeping an eye on these trends, smart bettors can get a sense of where the money is going and how betting lines are shifting.
Key Types of Betting Trends
- Public vs. Sharp Money:
- Public money refers to bets made by regular bettors.
- Sharp money is associated with experienced, professional gamblers.
- Knowing the difference between how much is being bet (bet volume) and the actual money involved can be crucial.
How to Use NFL Betting Trends
For those serious about betting, trends are just one tool among many. Here’s how to use them effectively:
Look for Sharp Money Signals:
- Pay attention to games where there’s a big difference between the number of bets and the amount of money wagered.
- Small bets on one team and large bets on the other might indicate that professional gamblers are betting against the popular choice.
Fade the Public—but with Caution:
- Fading the public means betting against where most people are putting their money.
- This strategy can pay off if the public heavily bets on a popular team, inflating the betting line.
- However, remember that this isn’t always foolproof; sometimes, the public gets it right.
Factor in Situational Trends:
- Combine trend data with other important factors such as:
- Injuries to key players.
- Weather conditions, which might affect game outcomes (e.g., bad weather could mean fewer points are scored).
- Team dynamics and other relevant details.
- Combine trend data with other important factors such as:
By understanding these trends and combining them with broader insights, bettors can make more informed decisions.
What Impact Can it Have on Bettors?
Casual Bettors Lost:According to VegasInsider odds, the preference among casual bettors for high-scoring games did not pay off this weekend. The dominance of "Under" results meant that many in the general betting public faced losses while sportsbooks expanded their share of the betting handle.
One Exception: The Steelers vs. Jets game was the sole exception amidst the daytime games, finishing with an "Over." Ironically, it began the week with the lowest projected total score.
Additional Notes
Handle Size: The NFL season opener is among the biggest betting weekends of the year. Positive outcomes for sportsbooks can substantially enhance their profit margins.
Game Lines: While the spread and moneyline bets were relatively balanced, the outcome of point totals significantly contributed to the casinos' profitable weekend.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated that a record $30 billion would be legally wagered on the 2025 NFL season. This represents an 8.5% increase from the previous year, with a significant amount of that money wagered on opening weekend.
The increasing legalization of sports betting across the country is consistently expanding the market. Thirty-eight states and Washington D.C. now have legal betting markets, with more growth expected.
Just remember to always exhibit responsible gambling habits.
